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Forums - Sales - Impact of GTA4

twesterm on 08 July 2007

I don't think GTAIV will do nearly as well as GTA3. GTA3 did well because and being at the right place at the right time, not because it was a good game. GTAIV is still going to do well, but the controversy isn't so much new anymore so it won't have that to drive sales.

Note, it's still going to sell a crapload of copies, it just isn't going to come anywhere near GTA3 sales. I'd say 3 million within the first year and 4-5 over the 360's and PS3's lifetime.



 

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naznatips on 08 July 2007
RolStoppable said:
naznatips said:

Goodquestion. I expect both Mario and Smash to outsell GTA on the 360 and PS3 seperately, but combined it's pretty hard to beat GTA's overall sales. I would say with the Wii's userbase it's possible, but unlikely. One advantage the Wii games have this time though is GTA only has the hardcore audience this time between the PS360, and the casuals are what REALLY sell the game. Even casuals will buy Mario Galaxy, and they may even buy Super Smash Bros. Brawl. Brawl is a lot less casual though because to know most of the characters you have to have a pretty detailed knowledge of gaming. Of course, with all it's classic characters Smash has the advantage of attracting the lapsed gamers on the Wii.


Does this part mean that you think Mario Galaxy has more appeal to casuals than Brawl? Brawl has for sure more appeal to casual gamers, you can jump right into a multiplayer match and have fun, while Mario platformers require more skill to get into the game and are singleplayer games. Both games appeal to core gamers as well as casuals, but a kick ass multiplayer mode makes a huge difference. And why should unknown characters be a problem? You can still easily enjoy the game.

On topic: GTA IV will sell better on the 360 than on the PS3, that's a no-brainer. Higher userbase and cheaper entry price point of the system. But due to its casual nature, GTA IV won't be the best selling console game this year, at least Halo 3 will beat GTA's sales. Galaxy and Brawl have a shot too, but that depends largely on their release dates. If one is released at the end of november/start of december, chances to outsell GTA IV are slim.


Yes, I do think SMG has more casual appeal.  WE know that you can just jump in and play Brawl and have a blast, but the average joe buying games would look at it as a fighting game, which automatically turns off the casual beacon.  It certainly has more casual appeal than any other fighting game, but it's still a fighting game which limits it.  Super Mario Galaxy though is Mario.  EVERYONE knows the name Mario.  The people who bought a Wii for Wii sports will buy a Mario game.  

You have to think about it from their perspective.  Name recognizability is very important to a casual's purchase of a game.  They buy games they recognize with characters they recognize.  GT sells because GT always sold well.  GTA's ridiculous milking attempts sell because everyone knows what GTA is already.  Smash Bros is not guaranteed to sell to the casual though because most of the characters won't be recognized by casual gamers and the game will look overwhelming. 



Steve 3.2 on 08 July 2007

I don't think GTA IV will have the impact to console sales that many hope for.

Total Cost of Ownership - When GTA 3 came out for the PS2, the system was $299 and quickly fell to $199 the following May.  The price of a new console is much higher these days and that alone will stop many from picking up GTA IV at launch or shortly afterwards (if they don't already own a PS3 or 360).

System Seller? - I don't think GTA 3 sold as many PS2s as some give it credit for.  I think there were more PS2 owners who were looking for a good game to play between rounds of Madden (or some other sports title).

Ennui - While I'm sure many are excited for another game in the series, the PSP/PS2 'stories' games may have had a negative influence on the series.  Add to that the fact that there are many more sandbox style games on the shelves these days and that many 360 owners will be busy with Halo 3 and PS3 owners will be playing Blu-ray movies (or whatever PS3 owners do with their PS3s ;) ).

I'm sure the game will do well, but I don't think the final figures will reach those of the previous titles on the PS2.



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Mnementh on 08 July 2007
El Duderino said:

another question, how will games like Mario Galaxy or Smash Brother Brawl do against GTA ??? with the Wii having a pretty big userbase righ now they will do very well, just how well ?, and will they move systems in the loong run ? I don´t know anybody with a Wii who sayes: "Mario ??? Meh, not for me." I mean everybody loves Mario, it´s like GTA without violence (so kids can play) but on mushrooms (so the stooners have something  to freak out over)


Mario ??? Meh, not for me. Really, I don't like Mario-games. I purchased via E-Bay the old Zelda-games and got it in package with Super Smash Brothers Melee and Super Mario Sunshine. As Super Smash Brothers is a fun game I don't like Mario Sunshine. I must say, I never liked Jump&Runs. I will try out Super Paper Mario anyways.



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montrealsoon on 08 July 2007

mrstickball said:

>>You can't underestimate the value, and importance of a 16m+ seller PER IP.

That is so true, and is one of the reasons why this autumn/Christmas is going to be so interesting. I think GTA4 and Wii Health Pack are potentially the two biggest sellers this for 2007.



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naznatips on 08 July 2007
RolStoppable said:
naznatips said:

Yes, I do think SMG has more casual appeal. WE know that you can just jump in and play Brawl and have a blast, but the average joe buying games would look at it as a fighting game, which automatically turns off the casual beacon. It certainly has more casual appeal than any other fighting game, but it's still a fighting game which limits it. Super Mario Galaxy though is Mario. EVERYONE knows the name Mario. The people who bought a Wii for Wii sports will buy a Mario game.

You have to think about it from their perspective. Name recognizability is very important to a casual's purchase of a game. They buy games they recognize with characters they recognize. GT sells because GT always sold well. GTA's ridiculous milking attempts sell because everyone knows what GTA is already. Smash Bros is not guaranteed to sell to the casual though because most of the characters won't be recognized by casual gamers and the game will look overwhelming.


Okay, here's my prediction: Brawl will end up with higher LTD sales than Galaxy. Why?

Because even though many gamers skipped the GC last generation they still played Melee on their friend's system and they loved it. Now that the Wii is the hot system all those people who loved Smash Bros. but didn't own a GC will go out and buy a Wii along with Brawl sooner or later. Galaxy and Brawl will both selling 10m+ LTD, but Brawl will sell better because of the multiplayer alone. The social component in games (playing with friends on the same system) will be more important this generation than ever before.

I don't get your point that Brawl won't sell that well to casuals because they don't know most of the characters. There are still plenty of characters in the game most casual gamers for sure know about: Mario, Luigi, Kirby, Link, Pikachu are amongst the most popular names in videogames.


I disagree.  Super Mario Sunshine almost sold as much as SSBM without any casuals on the Gamecube (or very few).  With all the Wii casuals I think chances are very good that they will boost Mario sales more than Smash sales.  Either way I agree with you that both have a good chance of getting very good sales, maybe up to 10 million with the kind of legs they will have.



ckmlb on 08 July 2007

Is the Halo release going to negatively effect the GTA release on 360?

I think it will at least to some extent. The majority of 360 owners will be playing Halo multiplayer with a lot of their time.

Actually I'm thinking both of these games' releases are going to negatively effect all other 3rd party games coming out: Army of Two, Mercenaries 2, Assassin's Creed, Unreal Tournament, etc...

This is why I think Haze and Unreal Tournament will both come out as timed exclusives for the PS3 and be delayed for 360 to avoid competition with Halo specifically.



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misterd on 08 July 2007
Fuzzmosis said:
Shrug, if Xbox360 advertises that it has more content in it's version (I keep reading yes/no on that) I can't see any Xbox360 owners jumping to PS3. PS3 owners aren't likely either, any good games are quite welcome on their systems.

For people to buy it, I imagine it won't help the Xbox, Halo is for that, and it will help the PS3 a bit, but I also can't imagine it flying off the shelves for it. 650-750 bucks for GTA IV? Some people may balk at that

Not looking at 360 or PS3 owners switching - they've chosen their sides in the console war. The largest share of the market still up for grabs are PS2 owners who haven't commited to either console. What I'm trying to find out is whether GTA4 will sway them to jump in now, and if so, for which system.

misterd on 08 July 2007
naznatips said:
RolStoppable said:
naznatips said:

Yes, I do think SMG has more casual appeal. WE know that you can just jump in and play Brawl and have a blast, but the average joe buying games would look at it as a fighting game, which automatically turns off the casual beacon. It certainly has more casual appeal than any other fighting game, but it's still a fighting game which limits it. Super Mario Galaxy though is Mario. EVERYONE knows the name Mario. The people who bought a Wii for Wii sports will buy a Mario game.

You have to think about it from their perspective. Name recognizability is very important to a casual's purchase of a game. They buy games they recognize with characters they recognize. GT sells because GT always sold well. GTA's ridiculous milking attempts sell because everyone knows what GTA is already. Smash Bros is not guaranteed to sell to the casual though because most of the characters won't be recognized by casual gamers and the game will look overwhelming.


Okay, here's my prediction: Brawl will end up with higher LTD sales than Galaxy. Why?

Because even though many gamers skipped the GC last generation they still played Melee on their friend's system and they loved it. Now that the Wii is the hot system all those people who loved Smash Bros. but didn't own a GC will go out and buy a Wii along with Brawl sooner or later. Galaxy and Brawl will both selling 10m+ LTD, but Brawl will sell better because of the multiplayer alone. The social component in games (playing with friends on the same system) will be more important this generation than ever before.

I don't get your point that Brawl won't sell that well to casuals because they don't know most of the characters. There are still plenty of characters in the game most casual gamers for sure know about: Mario, Luigi, Kirby, Link, Pikachu are amongst the most popular names in videogames.


I disagree.  Super Mario Sunshine almost sold as much as SSBM without any casuals on the Gamecube (or very few).  With all the Wii casuals I think chances are very good that they will boost Mario sales more than Smash sales.  Either way I agree with you that both have a good chance of getting very good sales, maybe up to 10 million with the kind of legs they will have.


And Melee sold roughly 20% more than Sunshine despite not having any online multiplayer. I think the argument for this can really go either way, and will largely depend on two things: 1) How well Galaxy utilizes the controller. 2) How well Brawl implements online. In the end I will be shocked if either game fails to hit 9-10 million over the course of the Wii's life time.

Bonafide732 on 08 July 2007
ckmlb said:
Is the Halo release going to negatively effect the GTA release on 360?

I think it will at least to some extent. The majority of 360 owners will be playing Halo multiplayer with a lot of their time.

Actually I'm thinking both of these games' releases are going to negatively effect all other 3rd party games coming out: Army of Two, Mercenaries 2, Assassin's Creed, Unreal Tournament, etc...

This is why I think Haze and Unreal Tournament will both come out as timed exclusives for the PS3 and be delayed for 360 to avoid competition with Halo specifically.

I think GTA IV will hurt sales more than halo... halo comes out the last week of september.. GTA IV comes out in the middle of October... most of the games you just named dont come out til mid to late November... Haze.. Assassins Creed Army of two.. and mercenaries... so i think halo might affect sales of gta on the 360 but i highly doubt it...



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