I don't think GTA IV will have the impact to console sales that many hope for.
Total Cost of Ownership - When GTA 3 came out for the PS2, the system was $299 and quickly fell to $199 the following May. The price of a new console is much higher these days and that alone will stop many from picking up GTA IV at launch or shortly afterwards (if they don't already own a PS3 or 360).
System Seller? - I don't think GTA 3 sold as many PS2s as some give it credit for. I think there were more PS2 owners who were looking for a good game to play between rounds of Madden (or some other sports title).
Ennui - While I'm sure many are excited for another game in the series, the PSP/PS2 'stories' games may have had a negative influence on the series. Add to that the fact that there are many more sandbox style games on the shelves these days and that many 360 owners will be busy with Halo 3 and PS3 owners will be playing Blu-ray movies (or whatever PS3 owners do with their PS3s ;) ).
I'm sure the game will do well, but I don't think the final figures will reach those of the previous titles on the PS2.
Numbers are like people. Torture them enough and you can get them to say anything you want.
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