They could cut price to 349 before Christmas, by then components should be quite cheaper (next bulk price cuts shold be in Autumn).

Following Moore's law, they should be able to cut price to 299 without damage during Spring 2009, but I guess they'll do it later to start earning on HW instead of simply breaking even (or coming close to it). If with 10 years life they mean since WW launch was completed, PS3 end of life should be during Spring 2017, that's 8 years since Spring 2009, so to achieve their goal they should sell on average 15-16mln consoles a year. Possible? Likely? Unlikely? Impossible?

There is no way in hell the PS3 will even break 100 million.

It won't last 10 years.

Only market leaders last 10 years: NES, SNES, PS1, PS2, Wii.

If a miracle happens and the PS3 sells 100 million, Wii sells 300 million.

If PS3 sells 150 million, Wii sells 450 million.

@The Ghost of RubangB


PS1 and PS2 shouldn't be classed with those consoles....

So your using the "You could be hit by a bus tommorrow!" defense.

Eh... anything "can" happen.  But there are things that are mathmatically unlikely.

They've already pretty much announced their end of year plans. They are phasing out the 40GB PS3's and are replacing it with 80GB PS3's in September. The price will remain $399 until at least next year sometime. So, we may see 40GB PS3's for $349 when the 80GB launches. Sony may continue to just offer more "value" rather than cutting prices. This appears to be the approach for both Microsoft and Sony. Fire sale on old models, replace with newer "better" models.

Assuming Sony can reach 20 million by January of 09, they will be averaging less than 10 million a year. They have to do something VERY drastic to reach 15-16 million a year average. And if they are shooting for profitability, price cuts won't be the answer.

thier isnt a chance in hell, that the ps3 will break 100 million. why simple if u want rpg's u dont choose the system, point 2 if u want the best fps u dont buy a ps3, if u want the best online service u dont buy a ps3, if a system where u get a headset/ethernet cable included in your system u again dont buy a ps3. the ps3 will i think sell around 75 million systems and be in the #2 spot if they can somehow fix the above problems i stated.

I will do a Pachter prediction:

PS3 will outsell the PS2 by the end of its lifetime if it manages to sell more than the PS2.

There!

I agree, but I wanted to point out that while I think too that an immediate price cut to 299 would make them bleed money, postponing it for 9-10 months would be affordable for their finances and would let PS3 a long period to enjoy the effects of being below an important psychological price threshold. Postponing it for 18 months wouldn't steal too much from this grace period, but would make in exchange PS3 profitable before. So perhaps Sony is already evaluating between dropping price sooner, sell more units and have more power, but earn less, and doing it later, selling less unit, but earning more money and a little less power in gaming market.

The big question will be, how well will the PS3 sell at $200 - if there is a 360 at $150, a Wii at $99 - or a Wii II/HD at $250?

Its a great "theory" - the GC *could* have sold 150m, if Nintendo kept supporting it and dropping the price down to "free" (which is effectively what a $199US PS3 is - at this stage anyway).

The only reason new hardware is brought in, is if potential sales/profit on the new hardware would be significantly higher than on the old hardware. If the same applies to the PS3/PS4, Sony would be insane to keep it running.

Time will tell...