I haven't read the whole thread so perhaps some sane people have already noted these.. but here are my points.

For PS2, he obviously meant 130 million as they only got to 127mil in December, so no to the 140 mil.
The PS2 has been widely available in Latin America for years, so even if that could somehow have meant 10 million extra sales in the last 6 months (it wouldn't) it didn't because it is already launched there, it's the PS3 that is being 'officially' launched there either recently or soon.

So those two above mean it was a mistake when 140mil was mentioned.

Now about the 130 million... firstly, VGC sales I am sure are a lot lower than reality for PS2 as it has been released in so many places ioi has no information for... but they are not to the sum of 10-11 million lower than reality.

Sony for the life of the PS2 has used a method of reporting "shipments" that included all manufactured units, which means they included units sent to people who bought faulty units (meaning they reported as "shipped" 2 units to the same person for the price of 1 unit) which as the early PS2s were as bad as the X360s for reliability means quite a number of PS2s included in that number were not in fact bought by someone.... my guess is around 5-8 million.

Luckily they have stopped reporting like that, and now refer to shipments as those sent to retail stores, however this has messed up PS2 totals.

I sincerely hope that Sony paid you very well for your testimonial.

All of the features you listed are great and all, but unfortunately they are all negated by "FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS."  Obviously PS3 doesn't cost that much anymore, but it's symbolic of the PS3's hefty price tag, which is why it is having trouble selling.

Also, you have this:

"It also plays games!"  What it comes down to is most people just want to play games on their video game machine.  PS3 is lagging behind 360 and Wii when it comes to software.

And of course we know Sony's good for their word, yep.

This has been repeated way too many times, and maybe every new forum member should have to watch a short video on it, but there is a difference between what Sony says they've sold and what has actually been sold.  Sony reports on consoles shipped, not consoles sold to consumers.  The difference is, what good does a console do that is sitting on a store shelf or in an inventory warehouse?  So their 140 million number may be correct in terms of PS2's shipped, but that just means there are 10-15 million in unsold inventory around the world.

It's definitely possible. PS3 is selling better than PS2 at the same point (heard this too many times; not going to check) and that's at a higher price. MS has a problem: they don't attract casual gamers. Nintendo has a problem: Wii isn't very powerful. However, while Nintendo has a problem we don't know how big one it'll turn out to be. Right now it's not a problem but it might become one when PS3's price falls to $200 or something else that's good enough.

At this pace PS3 might actually reach 150M. However, there's one thing: which one (PS3 or Wii) will win when PS3 has a decent price? We don't really know. Wii could continue dominating casual market. PS3 could win back PS2 users. PS3 could start dominating the casual market. We can't be certain; we can only guess. This could be when Wii's lack of power might come in; or it might not.

Anyway, Wii's not going to last without something big and I don't mean games. When Wii's out, either its successor or PS3 will start (or continue, depending on what has happened) dominating. I think it's going to be PS3 but it's a bit hard to predict.

Oh, and I don't believe Wii and PS2 have too much common user base. Wii is getting new consumers to play; PS2, I feel, has a slightly different target. I could be wrong here, though.

The PS3 is the console which has the best chance of its sales going UP, not down. Its the only console that has much of its potential in front of it and not behind. I would have to wait and see how long it takes to reach that $199 number, but with its titles coming out I really dont see 150 million being impossible to reach.

I can see it, I expect the PS2 to live for another 4 - 5 years.

The hell? Are people serious?

PS3 will not outsell PS2. Not in a million years. No, no, NO NO!



NO!

This is not going to happen.

When you have ioi questioning people's sanity in a thread, you know it's getting just a tad bit ridiculous.

PS3 is tracking ahead of PS2?

The flaw in this stat is that the PS2 didn't have a uniform launch so WW PS3 is tracking along only a few regions of PS2.

Align all the launches and PS3 falls way short of PS2 in America and Japan, the only place it is even remotely close is Europe, Sony's stronghold.

Nobody would have believed the current status quo three years ago, barring the few with theories so far fetched it was actually humorous when they became closer to reality.

And nobody has clairvoyance or the precognitive ability to claim they know where things will be in another three.

Even Nintendo didn't predict their current level of success. They took a gamble with their strategy but the pay off surprised them as much as anyone else. Otherwise they would have scaled up initial production output by no less than 50% rather than struggling to meet demand for over 18 months.

The only conclusion I can arrive at currently is that it is very far fetched indeed to believe the PS3 is on track to hit 100 million units.

But at $199 in 3-4 years, a set top box that provides access to a DD movie and TV show store, HD media playback, and what will very likely be a full line up of retail soft titles in addition to DD soft titles, is very little coinage for a true media center hub.

Because......???