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Alby_da_Wolf said:

They could cut price to 349 before Christmas, by then components should be quite cheaper (next bulk price cuts shold be in Autumn).

Following Moore's law, they should be able to cut price to 299 without damage during Spring 2009, but I guess they'll do it later to start earning on HW instead of simply breaking even (or coming close to it). If with 10 years life they mean since WW launch was completed, PS3 end of life should be during Spring 2017, that's 8 years since Spring 2009, so to achieve their goal they should sell on average 15-16mln consoles a year. Possible? Likely? Unlikely? Impossible?

They've already pretty much announced their end of year plans. They are phasing out the 40GB PS3's and are replacing it with 80GB PS3's in September. The price will remain $399 until at least next year sometime. So, we may see 40GB PS3's for $349 when the 80GB launches. Sony may continue to just offer more "value" rather than cutting prices. This appears to be the approach for both Microsoft and Sony. Fire sale on old models, replace with newer "better" models.

Assuming Sony can reach 20 million by January of 09, they will be averaging less than 10 million a year. They have to do something VERY drastic to reach 15-16 million a year average. And if they are shooting for profitability, price cuts won't be the answer.