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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

ranzchic said: Yup, they overshipped to pad the whole "10,000,000 units shipped!!!" forecast. At 10 million units sold, they barely reached the 9 million level, what makes you think that they will sell through 12 million easilly during one of the slowest times of the year when they couldn't even get rid of their surplus over the holidays?
The fact that they have averaged 600,000 units a month thus far and there are more games available than before.
The Wii has been selling(not shipped) at least 500k units per month in Japan alone(granted were still in the launch window). I also believe that it has succesfully differentiated itself from the competition. Price cuts for both the PS3 and the 360 will not really affect the Wii demand just because Nintendo's focus right now is userbase building via the non-gamers/casual gamer market whereas the 360 is focused on the limited hardcore audience. In short, the mainstream audience has spoken and they see the value in paying $250 for the novelty of experiencing the gimmicky waggle over paying $300++ for the other intimidating machines.
This has nothing to do with my argument that XBOX 360 will sustain its sales lead through the end of the year. Price cuts for PS3 and XBOX 360 will affect the demand for PS3 and XBOX 360. What exactly is your point. I never said that Wii will fail, just that it won't surpass XBOX 360 in the year 2007.
Kwaad said: Can Nintendo seroiusly double their production... now? I read they are ramping up production soon into the 1million+. So that would be march-ish. before Nintendo is cranking ~1.05million/month. I wouldnt think Nintendo would get more factories online for 3-6 months. Wich would then put production at 1.4million/month. I dont see nintendo doing more than 14million.
Sound logic at first.... but then ....
I do see Sony hitting 14million tho.
Kwaad you are completely useless.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

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catofellow said: Sound logic at first.... but then .... I do see Sony hitting 14million tho. Kwaad you are completely useless.
Using logic Kwaad might be right. Sony is the largest electronics manufactureres in the world. They are among the Worldwide Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders. Added to their stature they are contracting manufacturing of the PS3 to other factories. What do the numbers say? In 2006 MS revenue was 44 billion while sony's was 68 billion. I would probably go out on the limb here to say, maybe they can achieve these numbers.



Games make me happy! PSN ID: Staticneuron Gamertag: Staticneuron Wii Code: Static Wii - 3055 0871 5802 1723

Shipping 14 million I can see, selling 14 million..... that's another story.



Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.

I think it is clear there is not the demand for 14 million PS3s @ 500/600 USD. They aren't going to average over 1 million/month WW in 2007. From what we've seen so far, that just seems absurd. Obviously Sony can produce the units, but they'd be wise not to overshoot demand by many millions like they have with PSP. Nintendo could have trouble producing the units, at least in comparison, but I think they've potentially got the demand...



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"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

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Erik Aston said: I think it is clear there is not the demand for 14 million PS3s @ 500/600 USD. They aren't going to average over 1 million/month WW in 2007. From what we've seen so far, that just seems absurd. Obviously Sony can produce the units, but they'd be wise not to overshoot demand by many millions like they have with PSP. Nintendo could have trouble producing the units, at least in comparison, but I think they've potentially got the demand...
Think of it this way. Sony can push out 15m this year, and have enough stock to stop production until 2009!! Think of the savings in production costs for that year. Wow. They will be able to show huge net gains in fiscal 2008 to their investors, then in 2009 start a much smaller production system that will actaully meet demand. Say 5m a year.



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I think that Wii should be ~9 million by October. When I initially thought that it would surpass x360 in Oct. I totally forgot that people would still buy x360 between now and then... So factoring that MS sells ~500k / month MS should hit ~13M by Oct. Nov and Dec will be interesting. Nintendo should definitely have capacity by then to deliver ~2M / month / Earth :P MS will not have the advantage of being the only console with stock. But will be certain to have some console seller. So I expect them to move ~ 1.5M/month/earth for the holiday months So by end of 2007, there should be 13M Wii and 16M x360's Given the new capacity, Wii shall handily outsell x360 in Japan by 4-500k units/ month. So, I suspect that the line will be crossed in April/May 2008 I think that Euro launch of the PS3 shall go well. But I have trouble imagining that sony will be able to move more than 400k / month up to October, except in the Euro launch month where they should be able to move 1M. So they should be up to 5.5M by end of October. I think Xmas will be good to them and they'll move ~1M / month. So, by end of 2007. they should be up to 7.5M, possibly even 8M. 2008 is impossible to really forecast till ~Oct, when the '08 launches are more known



superchunk said: Erik Aston said: I think it is clear there is not the demand for 14 million PS3s @ 500/600 USD. They aren't going to average over 1 million/month WW in 2007. From what we've seen so far, that just seems absurd. Obviously Sony can produce the units, but they'd be wise not to overshoot demand by many millions like they have with PSP. Nintendo could have trouble producing the units, at least in comparison, but I think they've potentially got the demand... Think of it this way. Sony can push out 15m this year, and have enough stock to stop production until 2009!! Think of the savings in production costs for that year. Wow. They will be able to show huge net gains in fiscal 2008 to their investors, then in 2009 start a much smaller production system that will actaully meet demand. Say 5m a year.
You are joking, right? You can convince retailers to stock some 2 or 3 million extra systems with one-off incentives (that's what happened with the 360 last Christmas and the PSP before), but there's no way they're going to stock 10 Mio systems years in advance! Therefore Microsoft's explanation "we are going to stop selling systems for the next 6 months, because we want to get out of the red rather than win 5 Mio customers" is also total crap.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

robjoh said: Well I know that I can't find it so where can I prebook it for 5999 SEK?
I don't speak Swedish, so I don't know. I just found the info on Wikipedia, and also on other pages.
robjoh said: The price in Europe might be with VAT, BUT does it matter? It is still ****ing expensive!
It's expensive, we agree. I just intented to point out that you cannot compare apples with oranges. US suggested prices are not the same as European suggested prices.
robjoh said: By the way how do you go from 6499 SEK = 710 USD...
Jep, it's $742, as you said. Sorry. So 24% more than the US version. The UK price is 18% above the US price. The Eurozone price is between 6% and 13% above the US price.
robjoh said: Mind you those prices is still without any game! So you need to spen 60 USD (import, here in sweden at least the games is closer to 100 USD (with VAT)).
How does that matter for comparing console prices? If you want cheaper games, get a DS, or used games, or PC games.
robjoh said: Sweden is sony country, the PS2 outsold the xbox360 with 3 to 1 this christmas. BUT I doubt that the same crowd that pays 990 SEK for PS2 will pay 6500 SEK for a PS3.
Like Sony said: "The next generation doesn't start before we say so." They will be fine with mostly selling the PS2 for another year or two while the PS3 remains the high end system. I'm not going to say Sony will succeed with that tactic, but that's their plan. We might even see PS3 price drops in those territories earlier where the PS2 wears off first.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

staticneuron said: Using logic Kwaad might be right. Sony is the largest electronics manufactureres in the world. They are among the Worldwide Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders. Added to their stature they are contracting manufacturing of the PS3 to other factories. What do the numbers say? In 2006 MS revenue was 44 billion while sony's was 68 billion. I would probably go out on the limb here to say, maybe they can achieve these numbers.
So you really believe that Sony can outproduce Nintendo for the rest of the year? So far the oposite is true. Production will not be a major issue for either company, and if demand were expected to be 2 million/month for the rest of the year Nintendo would find a way to make as many units. The only reason they didn't ramp up production for launch is because they realized it would be ridiculous so have 2million/mo capacity when sales of that magnitude couldn't last for more than a few months. It would be a wasted investment. I highly doubt Nintendo (or Sony or Microsoft) will ever produce much more than 1 million consoles a month or ever need to.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

I think producing 1.5 million per month is the realistic height demand can reach... PS2 - 120 million units in between 70-80 months.



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When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

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