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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

Chubear on 14 February 2007

DreamsCast said: The Wii has probably had the most successful launch of all time in terms of hardware #'s, especially considering it's a first worldwide launch for Nintendo as well. Will the Wii surpass the 360's worldwide userbase by the end of '07? The analysts predict a neck-and-neck race in North America with the Wii likely selling a bit more in Europe and alot more in Asia. But will the difference in Asia be enough to essentially overcome the 1 year head start of the 360?? Will a 360 price cut and some big software releases bring more momentum to its side? Will the 360 hold the lead until the middle or the end of '08, whereby the Wii's lead in Japan would offset any 360 leads elsewhere? What do you guys think? This is turning out to be one *very* interesting generation.
I think people have remember that the 360 IS more expensive than the Wii and even if the Wii was to sell the exact same amount of consoles as the 360 on any given time period, it'll still be behind the 360 in monutery figures. What I'm trying to say is, it's simple math. The wii has to sell about 16000 units to compete with Microsoft selling 10000 units, to compete with MS selling 20000 units the Wii would have to sell 32000 units etc etc. So until such an instance occures, it's really short sighted for anyone to think that the wii can match units sells 1 for 1. That's just not reality. Please correct me if I'm wrong.



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Chubear on 14 February 2007

staticneuron said: catofellow said: Sound logic at first.... but then .... I do see Sony hitting 14million tho. Kwaad you are completely useless. Using logic Kwaad might be right. Sony is the largest electronics manufactureres in the world. They are among the Worldwide Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders. Added to their stature they are contracting manufacturing of the PS3 to other factories. What do the numbers say? In 2006 MS revenue was 44 billion while sony's was 68 billion. I would probably go out on the limb here to say, maybe they can achieve these numbers.
Wow, do you have a source for those numbers? Please point me in it's direction, thank you very much.



stewacide on 14 February 2007

Chubear said: DreamsCast said: I think people have remember that the 360 IS more expensive than the Wii and even if the Wii was to sell the exact same amount of consoles as the 360 on any given time period, it'll still be behind the 360 in monutery figures. What I'm trying to say is, it's simple math. The wii has to sell about 16000 units to compete with Microsoft selling 10000 units, to compete with MS selling 20000 units the Wii would have to sell 32000 units etc etc. So until such an instance occures, it's really short sighted for anyone to think that the wii can match units sells 1 for 1. That's just not reality. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Why does this matter? Nintendo is still making more money on the hardware. And you could also make the inference that consumers who just spent less money on a Wii would be more willing to buy more games than one who just spent a lot more on a 360 or especially a PS3?



robjoh on 15 February 2007

stewacide said: Chubear said: DreamsCast said: I think people have remember that the 360 IS more expensive than the Wii and even if the Wii was to sell the exact same amount of consoles as the 360 on any given time period, it'll still be behind the 360 in monutery figures. What I'm trying to say is, it's simple math. The wii has to sell about 16000 units to compete with Microsoft selling 10000 units, to compete with MS selling 20000 units the Wii would have to sell 32000 units etc etc. So until such an instance occures, it's really short sighted for anyone to think that the wii can match units sells 1 for 1. That's just not reality. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Why does this matter? Nintendo is still making more money on the hardware. And you could also make the inference that consumers who just spent less money on a Wii would be more willing to buy more games than one who just spent a lot more on a 360 or especially a PS3?
Couldn't agree more...it is not how much the hardware cost, it is about profit or number of consols sold.



 

 

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suk_my_wii on 16 February 2007

someone earlier said that the wii has to sell some were around 60% more units if it wants to keep up with ms profit. this might be ture but this time last year i dont thingk the 360 was even close to what the wii is selling right now(correct me if im wrong) and all the money consumers will be saving buying the wii they probubly use purchasing games on top of that few years later when ppl are looking into a second system when they have a 360 and a ps3 they might be looking into a wii because the 360 and the ps3 are farly similair as far as concepts go and the wii will be somthing different and cheaper. in the end most ppl will be looking at number of sales not profit but you do make a good point.



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Viper on 16 February 2007

Chubear said:I think people have remember that the 360 IS more expensive than the Wii and even if the Wii was to sell the exact same amount of consoles as the 360 on any given time period, it'll still be behind the 360 in monutery figures. What I'm trying to say is, it's simple math. The wii has to sell about 16000 units to compete with Microsoft selling 10000 units, to compete with MS selling 20000 units the Wii would have to sell 32000 units etc etc. So until such an instance occures, it's really short sighted for anyone to think that the wii can match units sells 1 for 1. That's just not reality. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
The only time this would matter is in regards to a companies stock price. Direct revenue comparisons won't work very well in that Nintendo doesn't publicly present revenue based on individual platforms, just an accumulated revenue on all hardware. MS doesn't differentiate between Xbox360 hardware revenue and Xbox hardware revenue either on financial reports. You see this same misguided approach from NPD as it presents software sales ranking based on sales revenue instead of units sold. Unit sales are still the best barometer of measure. Profit is a different animal entirely.



celine on 16 February 2007

staticneuron said: catofellow said: Sound logic at first.... but then .... I do see Sony hitting 14million tho. Kwaad you are completely useless. Using logic Kwaad might be right. Sony is the largest electronics manufactureres in the world. They are among the Worldwide Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders. Added to their stature they are contracting manufacturing of the PS3 to other factories. What do the numbers say? In 2006 MS revenue was 44 billion while sony's was 68 billion. I would probably go out on the limb here to say, maybe they can achieve these numbers.
Static, Do you know the difference between revenue and net income ? Revenue is "gross" income. When you deduct the various production costs to revenue you obtain "net" income. Well Sony has huge revenue but how many of this money they really "put in bank" ? Very few ... Here 2006 fiscal year ( actually early 3 fiscal quarters ) : Microsoft MSFT ( whole company not only MGS ) : $44.3 billion revenue, $12.6 billion income Sony SNY( whole company not only SCE ) : $63.9 billion revenue, $0.001 billion income Nintendo NTDOY : $4.3 billion revenue, $0.84 billion income Sony is a giant with weak legs.



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reverie on 16 February 2007

Viper said: You see this same misguided approach from NPD as it presents software sales ranking based on sales revenue instead of units sold. Unit sales are still the best barometer of measure.
Well, it depends on what you want to measure. If NPD want to tell investors how much money is spent in this market, then it's worth calculating that a 360 or PS3 game sells for $59 and a DS or GBA for $39. NPD cannot calculate the producers' income as that would really be different for each individual game or console or accessory sold. What I do think is weird that while everybody who thinks he's in the know can tell you in general that software is where Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft make their money, fans and pundits care so much more for hardware sold. Probably because it's easier to remember just 3 figures, one for each system. Hardware sold is an early indicator of what potential there will be for software sales, but then it depends on execution and software library if a system can really live up to its installed base's potential.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

staticneuron on 16 February 2007

celine said: staticneuron said: catofellow said: Sound logic at first.... but then .... I do see Sony hitting 14million tho. Kwaad you are completely useless. Using logic Kwaad might be right. Sony is the largest electronics manufactureres in the world. They are among the Worldwide Top 20 Semiconductor Sales Leaders. Added to their stature they are contracting manufacturing of the PS3 to other factories. What do the numbers say? In 2006 MS revenue was 44 billion while sony's was 68 billion. I would probably go out on the limb here to say, maybe they can achieve these numbers. Static, Do you know the difference between revenue and net income ? Revenue is "gross" income. When you deduct the various production costs to revenue you obtain "net" income. Well Sony has huge revenue but how many of this money they really "put in bank" ? Very few ... Here 2006 fiscal year ( actually early 3 fiscal quarters ) : Microsoft MSFT ( whole company not only MGS ) : $44.3 billion revenue, $12.6 billion income Sony SNY( whole company not only SCE ) : $63.9 billion revenue, $0.001 billion income Nintendo NTDOY : $4.3 billion revenue, $0.84 billion income Sony is a giant with weak legs.
Sony puts money in the bank in cycles. It spends money and expects returns. The revenue paints a better picture for a company like sony because they spend billions and often make it all back plus profit (thats why sony seems to be growing). Think about it this way, Sony's "revenue" was made. It didn't fall out of the sky. With the management of electronics company in which they only did one thing maybe their "net income" would be higher. Between windows and windows based software, business solutions and thier gaming division, this is pretty much all MS does. Sony subsidiaries are comprised of not only electronics but movie, music, financial and chemical corporations. You may not realize how good this is but in the business world revenue (earned revenue) is looked favorably on. Sony's top line has been between 60 to 70 billion each year while MS has been 35 to 35. Thats why you hear stories about how Sony spend billions on R&D and billions to aquire other companies such as MGM. A giant with weak legs indeed.



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Viper on 16 February 2007

reverie said:What I do think is weird that while everybody who thinks he's in the know can tell you in general that software is where Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft make their money
While largely true for Sony and MS, this it's not as accurate for Nintendo. Historically, Nintendo has always sold hardware for profit. The GC was the first exception as they took an initial $9.00 loss on hardware for the first year. Profit was made from that point on. With the DS and Wii, profit is rather sizable from the onset. Sony is taking the largest loss per console ever for any console right now but expect to make profit in 2-3 years time (I don't agree with them on that though). MS never made hardware profit on Xbox but has stated they now make profit on X360 hardware. I don't know how accurate that is but it can't be much nor will it erase the debt they've established anytime soon. You are correct in that the bulk of all three companies profits come from software. Especially the publishing of software.