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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Wii surpass 360 (if ever)?

The Wii, in addition to being cheap to built, also was easy and cheap to develop since they started with all the work they'd already done with the GC, and did easy things like ramping up the clock and adding more memory. The control interface certainly took some effort, but as I recall the core of it was acquired with some company Nintendo bought that sold mice/pointers along the same principle (so it was amortized with that purchase). Also, even with the channel interface, there seems to be a lot less software in the Wii vs. the 360 and PS3 (software costs money to develop)



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stewacide said: The Wii, in addition to being cheap to built, also was easy and cheap to develop since they started with all the work they'd already done with the GC, and did easy things like ramping up the clock and adding more memory.
Nintendo's R&D expenses almost doubled when they developed the Wii. They reported 31 billion Yen in R&D expenses for 2006 (fiscal year, ending 03'2006), up from 15-17 billion Yen per year from 2000 to 2004 and 21 billion Yen in 2005 (Source: nintendo.co.jp). So it's fair to say that Nintendo had to spend less in R&D for the GameCube. Probably their partners like ATI and IBM had to do less R&D for the Wii, but that motion sensing must have cost Nintendo 10 billion Yen of R&D alone.



Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

I for one hope the Wii will never take out the 360, I am hoping that it will slowdown this year and fall into 3rd. If the Wii wins that means a rollback in power and that whole motion thing next time...or to me the death of games as if that happens after 20 years being a gamer I am done and blame the big N for it! I pray the Wii dies a horrible painful death and the world wakes up to see how big a pile of crap it is! FYI, VG's numbers are wrong as even wikipedia doesn't back them up! The 360 is above 10 million and the wii should be below 4 or slightly above. The PS3 numbers are wrong too as they should be around 1.3 and 1.8.



DIAR said: I for one hope the Wii will never take out the 360, I am hoping that it will slowdown this year and fall into 3rd. If the Wii wins that means a rollback in power and that whole motion thing next time...or to me the death of games as if that happens after 20 years being a gamer I am done and blame the big N for it! I pray the Wii dies a horrible painful death and the world wakes up to see how big a pile of crap it is! FYI, VG's numbers are wrong as even wikipedia doesn't back them up! The 360 is above 10 million and the wii should be below 4 or slightly above. The PS3 numbers are wrong too as they should be around 1.3 and 1.8.
Actuly Xbox360 is lower than 10 million but they have shipped (not sold) more than 10. Wikipedia is not a traking firm. Looking into NPD and we actuly have even lower numbers than vgcharts, so no you are wrong. I personally hope that Wii will sell better than GameCube at least, because most probarbly it will be my only machine. I can't say if the Wii number is to high ot to low, but what we know is: 1.1 milions in USA alone (until december), 1.5+ in Japan. Then we have another 700k in EU until december. Assuming ~500k in USA during januari and another ~200k in EU. Will get us to around 4 million so yes it might be a little high, but I don't know depends on nintendos shipments to EU. Might be more than 200k, mayby even what USA and Japan gets, but I doubt it. I personally have problem to see that the Wii will slow down before 10 millions by the simple fact that Nintendo have shown a good line up of hardcore nintendo fans line up, which will probarbly lead the sale in USA. In Japan is Wii sport leading to a lot of sales and Wii will probarbly sell more than GC. After that who knows... The PS3 numbers is around 1.8 so I dont know what you are talking about there.



 

 

Buy it and pray to the gods of Sigs: Naznatips!

reverie said: Nintendo's R&D expenses almost doubled when they developed the Wii. They reported 31 billion Yen in R&D expenses for 2006 (fiscal year, ending 03'2006), up from 15-17 billion Yen per year from 2000 to 2004 and 21 billion Yen in 2005 (Source: nintendo.co.jp). So it's fair to say that Nintendo had to spend less in R&D for the GameCube. Probably their partners like ATI and IBM had to do less R&D for the Wii, but that motion sensing must have cost Nintendo 10 billion Yen of R&D alone.
Well of course they have to pay for their suppliers costs in the end. IBM had to do so little, and AIT it seems essentially nothing, that Nintendo is likely paying the bare cost of manufacture for the chips.



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The numbers are a bit high for all three I think. Wii for instance sold 990,000 in Japan in 2006 (by December 31) If you throw in the 10% fudge factor for Mexico and Canada, Wii sold 1.245 million in North America by December 28 (this is why January is 5 weeks in new NPD January data, the leap 'week' accounts for four days in December 28-31 and three in February 1-3) in 2006. The European data listed on this website shows 810k for Europe in 2006. 810,000+1,245,000+990,000 = 3.045 million Wii's sold. Throw in the four days in North America (estimate 4 days divided by a 31 day month x 576,000 American December Wii's), and you arrive at a number very close to Nintendo's financial report figure of 3.19 million Wii's sold by the end of 2006 - 3.12 million or so. Add in a bit more for Canada, Mexico and South America over the 4 days you get to 3.19 million I think. In January, Wii sold 450,000 in Japan (by the 28th). Add 1/2 the total of the next week to January, and you get another 35,000 Wii's sold in Japan in January. North American estimates for Wii are 500,000 over the 5 week period. For the actual January period, I would say it is around 400,000 Wii's sold. Europe seems to be having shortages, but sales are still brisk, call it 150,000 in January. No idea if Euro figures are low or even too high though, but if close, that adds 1 million to the Wii world wide total in January. In February, as of the 11th, Wii had sold 115,000 or so in Japan. If North American sales and European sales remain about the same, another 11 days of sales in those territories would add 275,000 units or so. In other words, as of about February 11, 2007, Wii is: 3.19 (2006) + 1.03 (January) +.115 (Japan February) + .275 (Eur + N.A. February) = February 11, 2007 Wii userbase That adds up to 4.61 million. The website says 4.71, for today, February 19, 2007. Wii probably sold about 60-80 thousand in Japan this week. Throw in another 70,000 for the West and the numbers seem pretty reasonable to a bit low for Wii.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

It really depends on the steam Wii can keep up in Feb-July. Should the Wii continue sales pace, it might surpass the 360 by September W/W, and beat the 360 out for atleast a month w/w. I expect Oct-Dec to be VERY good to the 360 due to Halo 3 and GTAIV, with the 360 beating the Wii out in those months w/w. So........In short........September 2007, via NPD + MC, Wii will beat out the 360 IMO. However, the 360 will regain a slight lead, to be re-taken by the Wii in January. It will stay this way until each holiday when the 360 will re-gain the lead slightly, wash rinse repeat, until the PS3 takes over in 2009-2010 and stays there. Yet again, LTD Totals: PS3 - 70-75m 360 - 50-55m Wii - 47.5-52.5m Over lifetime. I expect the Wii to out-sell both, but have a shorter lifespan (think Xbox support after 360 came out), therefore allowing the 360/PS3 to overtake lifetime sales.



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

mrstickball said: It really depends on the steam Wii can keep up in Feb-July. Should the Wii continue sales pace, it might surpass the 360 by September W/W, and beat the 360 out for atleast a month w/w. I expect Oct-Dec to be VERY good to the 360 due to Halo 3 and GTAIV, with the 360 beating the Wii out in those months w/w. So........In short........September 2007, via NPD + MC, Wii will beat out the 360 IMO. However, the 360 will regain a slight lead, to be re-taken by the Wii in January. It will stay this way until each holiday when the 360 will re-gain the lead slightly, wash rinse repeat, until the PS3 takes over in 2009-2010 and stays there. Yet again, LTD Totals: PS3 - 70-75m 360 - 50-55m Wii - 47.5-52.5m Over lifetime. I expect the Wii to out-sell both, but have a shorter lifespan (think Xbox support after 360 came out), therefore allowing the 360/PS3 to overtake lifetime sales.
It won't be that close. Either the Wii is gonna be a runaway hit(100M+ and the 360 and the PS3 both share 50M or so in sales left over) or it will tank and stay at 20-30M, probably less than that. If the Wii tanks, the PS3 will win. The 360 just doesn't have it yet to win this generation generation(the anemic Japanese support will prove fatal, especially with a mediocre European response), they have a better shot in the next one, however. 360 sales will plateau at 30M at the most, probably less because its more expensive than the original xbox. The PS3 will not see ps2 level kind of sales for that very reason as well, but they still win(if the Wii tanks that is).



I think if Wii 'wins' Japan by the end of the year, the market will follow. Microsoft may win Americas, but Europe is way up for grabs, a tie breaker of sorts. Japan and NA could stay as they are for the duration.



People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.

When there are more laws, there are more criminals.

- Lao Tzu

My guess is that the Wii is going to hit it big with the baby boomer generation, due to the more accessible gameplay of its titles. While the baby boomers are old enough that they do not tend to intersect the typical gaming market, their numbers do consist of a large segment of the US population (around one quarter of it by most accounts.) They're also heading towards retirement age, and will be spending a reasonable part of their retirement funds on entertainment. The timing is basically perfect for Nintendo, and a similar situation exists in Japan - albeit for a different reason. Assuming the console continues to find favour with those outside of the typical gamer groups as well as more traditional gamers, I could see the Wii co-existing with at least one other console quite easily. Whether or not you would refer to this as a "Win", I do perceive it to be good for the console's sales numbers. When will it happen? Most people who are thinking near the end of the year are probably correct, given that the above holds true. It would take time for Nintendo to build enough consoles to overtake the 360, indeed, they still have yet to satisfy the initial demand for their new console.