My guess is that the Wii is going to hit it big with the baby boomer generation, due to the more accessible gameplay of its titles. While the baby boomers are old enough that they do not tend to intersect the typical gaming market, their numbers do consist of a large segment of the US population (around one quarter of it by most accounts.) They're also heading towards retirement age, and will be spending a reasonable part of their retirement funds on entertainment. The timing is basically perfect for Nintendo, and a similar situation exists in Japan - albeit for a different reason. Assuming the console continues to find favour with those outside of the typical gamer groups as well as more traditional gamers, I could see the Wii co-existing with at least one other console quite easily. Whether or not you would refer to this as a "Win", I do perceive it to be good for the console's sales numbers. When will it happen? Most people who are thinking near the end of the year are probably correct, given that the above holds true. It would take time for Nintendo to build enough consoles to overtake the 360, indeed, they still have yet to satisfy the initial demand for their new console.
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