The PS3 has lots of nice looking exclusives in the "coming soon" department, but that doesn't make it a winner yet. You're assuming first of all that those games will significantly boost sales, and secondly that the next games from their developers will also be PS3 exclusives. Practically all of the current exclusives started development way back before the PS3's huge price was common knowledge, and before anyone realised just how big the Wii was going to be. Starting exclusive projects for the PS3 now would mean suffering from significantly higher development costs, and then having a much lower chance of earning the money back due to the tiny userbase. A lot of developers were willing to initially bleed money in order to try and get the PS3 underway, but how many are willing to continue if things don't seriously turn around?

It would be like making a Gamecube exclusive in 2004, except even worse due to higher development costs. Remember what happened to the Gamecube exclusives Resident Evil 4 and Viewtiful Joe? A lot of people were saying it would turn the tide and beat the PS2 after those gmase, or Perfect Dark Zero, Kameo and Dead Phoenix were released, but I'm sure we all know what happened.

You can make all the predictions you want about 2013, but in the end very few people will buy the more expensive console with the least games, and very few developers will make games for the harder to develop console if there's another alternative with over three times its userbase. That's simply not how the industry works.

We are talking about future. In my future x360 has no three times PS3's userbase. Factor "harder to develop" also doesn't exist there. Regards games. You are totally right - most of games will go multiplatform but Sony has the biggest first party support of all. All multiplatform games AND the widest selection from own camp gives PS3 a big adventage IMHO. 

A lot of you are over estimating the importance of the Playstation brand and underestimating the importance of price. Games are important but not as important we, most of us here a hardcore gamers, think. If games were the number on factor the 360 would be outselling the Wii and PS3.

I actually think I went to high on my lowest reasonable prediction for PS3. The PS3 will never be equal in price to either the 360 or the Wii. Most consoles are sold after they reach the $200 price point. The PS3 will be the last to hit that price point by at least a year. Price will always hinder the sales of the PS3 and the longer it lags behind in sales the less consumer mind share it will receive. Lower consumer mind share means lowers sales and diminishing support from third parties.

What the PS1 and PS2 sold is irrelevant. I keep seeing that point brought up. It that were a valid point we'd all be playing the latest Atari console right now in the US, Amiga's would still rule Europe, and the Nintendo 64 & Gamecube would have been number one consoles in Japan.

I also think that Sony has a more broad appeal with their internal development process than Nintendo... I think the Wii will be ultra successful, but I think the PS3 can sell to almost similar levels as the PS2 eventually (maybe 100m or a little bit less).

The Wii will broaden the market and have it's own 'casual' 'simple' 'party' game monopoly with the Nintendo fanboy's as well as some others who simply like playing Nintendo games, PLUS people who own it as in the PSWii and Wii60 combinations.



In terms of Sony's broad development appeal... they do things the 'cool' way. Nintendo do things the 'everyone must be able to enjoy' way which cuts out some things from their games that I think COULD make them better... Sony are the type to just have an idea, and make it ultra good, make it the best, drop lots of money in it and bash the crap out of anything else... an example of this from last gen in the GT games, it is known as the standard for racing games, and while other racing games sell, nothing gets to the level of GT sales.

360 IMO is the biggest loser here because it's become to well known as the 'geeks' console... microsoft have done that with the Xbox name unfortunately and it will never have massive main stream or casual appeal... GTAIV however will be a VERY interesting one to watch. Episodic content makes the geeks want to buy the 360 for it, but casuals might not care about either console because the price is too high.

BTW - Excellent discussion starting topic Source, different discussion to the usual HIGHEST HIGHEST HIGHEST... Wii has been WAY to high estimated for WORST CASE scenario. 

Given how rapidly people have historically turned away from Atari, Nintendo and Sega, I don't really know why Playstation would be any different. People have already shown the ability to drop brands like a rock. 

I really doubt Sony's "Broad" apeal actually exists. If you look at this list you'll notice that only 2 of the top 25 games, 6 of the top 50 games, and 13 of the top 100 games are made by Sony.

The Playstation brand was built off of exclusive support from third party developers. At the rate it is selling the PS3 has (maybe) 12 months before exclusive support is gone for the platform and I don't see how it can sell (dramatically) better without a $200 to $300 price drop.

I'm not sure if the price is so significant. I mean Sony's Bravia hdtv are if I'm not mistaken the best sold hdtvs in the world. And they're the most expensive. So obviously people are willing to pay more for something better. I think the ps3 right now is simply not seen as something worth 600$. If the price falls to 500$ before this christmas and at least one BIG game is released I would think that'll sell quite a few consoles. On the other hand the wii won't be able to benefit much from a price cut. It's already plenty cheap. But I really don't think that the success or failure of the wii will have that much of an impact in ps3's sales. They're way too different as consoles. The ps3 can do waaaaay more things than the wii but not everyone needs them. So whoever wants to use them will obviously buy the ps3. And the ones that don't - will buy a wii.

Happy, can you find a link to that list you used to summarily correct my position as well? I argued that Sony (As the number 4 games developer) was about as big as Nintendo (the number 2), but it wasn't even close, in terms of games sold.  

Too much 3rd parties support. Many AAA and AA games for ps3 are in 1-2 years for developement and won`t be canceled. Don`t worry, after E3 you will understand :)

Right, I'm not arguing that Sony can't come back; if they do, it will be because of games and other considerations -- as you've just mentioned -- not because people can't bear to let go of the brand.

Nintendo, Sega and Atari have all seen their empires crumble extremely rapidly. This suggests that brand recognition doesn't have a great deal of cache once a new generation arrives.