| kber81 said: I'm one of those who agree with OriGin - sale of PS3 can't be estimated on current pace. Current pace is an anomaly. This gen will last 10 or more years (not because of PS3's high-tech but because of increasing costs of games development.) As I pointed earlier price of all systems will drop. With small margain between -lets say PS3 -$ 199, X360 - $129, Wii - $99 in 2013 - I believe Sony brand will trample competition. Fact is Sony's dev camp is huge so I think exclusive content of PS3 will be one the most important assets. |
The PS3 has lots of nice looking exclusives in the "coming soon" department, but that doesn't make it a winner yet. You're assuming first of all that those games will significantly boost sales, and secondly that the next games from their developers will also be PS3 exclusives. Practically all of the current exclusives started development way back before the PS3's huge price was common knowledge, and before anyone realised just how big the Wii was going to be. Starting exclusive projects for the PS3 now would mean suffering from significantly higher development costs, and then having a much lower chance of earning the money back due to the tiny userbase. A lot of developers were willing to initially bleed money in order to try and get the PS3 underway, but how many are willing to continue if things don't seriously turn around?
It would be like making a Gamecube exclusive in 2004, except even worse due to higher development costs. Remember what happened to the Gamecube exclusives Resident Evil 4 and Viewtiful Joe? A lot of people were saying it would turn the tide and beat the PS2 after those gmase, or Perfect Dark Zero, Kameo and Dead Phoenix were released, but I'm sure we all know what happened.
You can make all the predictions you want about 2013, but in the end very few people will buy the more expensive console with the least games, and very few developers will make games for the harder to develop console if there's another alternative with over three times its userbase. That's simply not how the industry works.
