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Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

When you compare the price wii beats everyone hands down. No question about it. About the innovation it really depends on the games. They could use the wiimote in an incredibly interesting way (like trauma center which is IMO the best game for the wii currently) or they could do terribly. The rest of the stuff the ps3 already has it. It does have more than enough games coming in the near future and I highly doubt Nintendo is more popular than Sony :/
Again I'm not saying the ps3 will necessarly do well. But I really can't see how it can't do as badly as most people here are saying it would :/ Especially that 10 mil prediction.



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Gballzack said:
Safiir said:
Then I'll have to ask you again. What is that the people want in a console? If it's not games then what is it?

This generation? From the casual consumer's perspective?...

1. Affordability.

2. Innovation/Novelty/Fun. (Motion control, Blu-Ray, HD, Online, etc)

3. Games.

4. Company.

thats right I totally forgot the company..duh.. it´s just that I can´t get it into my head that some people just won´t buy from company A or B no matter what the product is, it´s not like the console is made from rare ivory or was built by kidnapped children, but lots of people think that way: "My computer crashed years ago with Win 95 so I´ll never buy from microsoft again." I can understand that some companies seem to screw customers but they need us more than we need them and every product should have it´s own value.

^^oh and yeah, even it plutonium was discovered inside the PS3 it would still sell 10 Mil, or it would just boost sales in countries which don´t have A-bombs yet

 



 

 

 

Remember that Wii is the reason for the surge of new gamers. So, with overall greater population of gamers, the total consoles sold world wide should also increase. With last gen stopping at around 180M total, this gen should easily pass the 200M mark, IMO.



Galaki said:
Remember that Wii is the reason for the surge of new gamers. So, with overall greater population of gamers, the total consoles sold world wide should also increase. With last gen stopping at around 180M total, this gen should easily pass the 200M mark, IMO.

 Is it? I haven't read any statitics about how many people became gamers because of the wii. And by gamers I mean gamers. Not someone that turns on the console once a month.



^^ Nintendo doesn´t have to care even if they never turn it on, money walks and some other stuff talkes



 

 

 

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I can believe that psx had +100M users, ps2 +120M users and ps3 will have under +60M. People like ps3, but don`t like price. I think that ps3 will be at 199$ in 2011, and that wii will have a lifetime of 4 years (this is the time for digital tv be available for all), and most will have hd tvs by 2010, so I guess that wii2 will be out by 2010. 360 I think that it will be out until 2012, some lifetime that ps3. So, my expectations are:

lowest expectations:

ps3   90 M

wii     60M

xbox360  45M

total: 195M, about same sales as this generation

highest expectations:

ps3  120M

wii    90 M

xbox360  50M

total: 260M, 30% increased sales over 200M this generation.



Sure Nintendo doesn't care. Which company cares? The question is are non-gamers really getting turned into gamers thanks to the wii. Because it's one of the most common arguments for the wii I've seen.



El Duderino said:

^^oh and yeah, even it plutonium was discovered inside the PS3 it would still sell 10 Mil, or it would just boost sales in countries which don´t have A-bombs yet

 


ROFL

I'm one of those who agree with OriGin - sale of PS3 can't be estimated on current pace. Current pace is an anomaly. This gen will last 10 or more years (not because of PS3's high-tech but because of increasing costs of  games development.) As I pointed earlier price of all systems will drop. With small margain between -lets say PS3 -$ 199, X360 - $129, Wii - $99 in 2013 - I believe Sony brand will trample competition. Fact is Sony's dev camp is huge so I think exclusive content of PS3 will be one the most important assets.



Btw about third party support. Aren't the wii ports of the multiplat games selling the worst from all 3 consoles? I haven't really looked much into that but that's my observation. Yeah the wii ports most suck really bad but so does the ps3 ones compared to the 360. So if third party developers don't really sell that many games for the wii it'll be irrelevant how big the userbase is. At the very least there won't be that many third party exclusives for the wii. I'm basing this simply on personal observations so I have no idea whether I'm right or not. 



ItsaMii said:
Hey CrazzyMan that looks like the prediction for best scenario.

it`s not the best, it`s lowest and realistic prediction. =)
100 mln. is lowest and realistic. :) Not the worst realistic.

HappySqurriel said:
CrazzyMan said:
well, ok, my predictions. =)

ps3 - over 100 mln., with amazing games like MGS4, FFXIII, GT5, KZ2, GoW3 and many many others + with games for everyone, LBP, warhawk, pain, flow, afrika, and many other inovations, and with price around 250-300$. People will be sold.

wii - over 100 mln., wii for 99$ will be just impulsive purchase for MANY people, which don`t play console games, but Wii will be fun for Party, that`s why it will sell good.

x360 - 40-60 mln., very depends how will people react on 199$ for core. Then again, if M$ will have more exclusive titles like Mass effect, Too human, Fable 2 and they won`t go to pc, then x360 could be a success. Probably some day they will make stop to fail x360, but it may be too late, that`s why 40 or 60. However, 200$ for premium is a sweet spot, just for those, who want try a little HD. Though, if difference between x360 and ps3 will be only 100$, then most people will buy ps3.

I'm sorry, there is no way that is your "Lowest realistic expectations for lifetime sales"

Essentially you're saying that there is no way that less that 250,000,000 consoles will be sold in this generation; the worst case scenerio for the PS3 would be that games like MGS4 and FFXIII were ported to the XBox 360 (or became XBox 360 exclusives), Killzone 2 was as bad or worse that Killzone, God of War 3 is delayed for several years, and most people were not interested in the other games.

MGS4 and FFXIII are NOT POSSIBLE on x360, that`s why they won`t be ported. Killzone 2 in worst case will look like a MULTIPLATFORM game HAZE. Killzone will be good, because killzone on psp with little budget is good, so on PS3 with over 40 mln. euros budget and more then 120 developers will be even better.

Wii for 99$ it`s like tamagochi, tetris, twister, it will be massive popular enertainment system for party games. Not for gamers, but for parties. =)

PS3 for 249$ with CG graphics, in some 2010-2011 will be must have for every true gamer, not only because FFXIII, FFXIIIv but also Team Ico games, that`s why everyone will have ps3. And that is the worst realistic scenario. Best scenario - over 150-200 mln. because, now PS3 games won`t look like games, they will look like CG moovies, thats why many NEW people will buy it.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far