First off it depends on which market you are talking about because I believe that what Nintendo split asunder will not be put back together. I think for now on there will be a group of purely recreation and social gamers which will become more distinct from the total immersion gamers. I say this because there certainly will always be a group, mostly between 12-25 and mostly male who are looking for a highly competitive experience or an alternate reality experience that is the most realistic simulation that technology will support. As the technology advances, these types of games will become less and less accessible to gamers not wanting that intense an experience.

The other group will be looking for greater simplicity of control; intuitive and a short enough learning curve to allow guests at a party to get involved in game play. To achieve this they will sacrifice precision of the type needed for seriously competitive gaming.  They will be looking for games that will allow them to play for an hour or less at a time and deliver a satisfying experience. They will also be looking for games that are playable by different age groups and skill levels with some mechanism to even the playing field so that the more skilled are challenged but the least skilled won’t be frustrated. This is the genius In Mario Karts behind the IA controlled weapon strikes that disproportionally strike the player in the lead. This sometimes frustrates and even infuriates the better gamers, but it does mean that the most skilled driver won’t always win. Mom or the 8 year old will win just often enough to enjoy playing. In Super Smash Brothers (all versions), the controls are designed so that simple button mashing will let you do well enough to feel involved and just once in a great while win over a much more skilled player.

These goals are too incompatible to probably ever be integrated into a single console again. Anyone wanting both, say a serious gamer who still wants to be able to play socially with non-gamers will just get two consoles. Many already have. The cost of the consoles ought to come down like other electronics to where this is an attractive alternative.

I think the winning consoles will disrupt the market place by sacrificing the ability to appeal to both groups for optimization to appeal to one group. The one can be bleeding edge, relatively expensive and offering immense precision and immersion at the cost of accessibility. The other will be less expensive, lower tech and designed to offer the greatest fun for the most people without wasting resources catering to the more intense gamers. This will create great opportunity for two manufacturers although it is harder to see where there will be room for a third. If the third company tries to disrupt by appealing to both groups (ala PS2) I think they will lose because each of the two groups will prefer the machine designed for them rather than one compromised for both.

If I had to guess, Nintendo will go for the recreational/social gamer and MS will go gung ho for the virtual reality intensity crowd. Sony looking back to happier times may be tempted to try to recreate the universal machine like they did so successfully once before. But I think it is a different time and the technical divide won’t make that possible.

Seems fair but a bit meh, Microsoft seems to be pushing a more cartoony look while fusing it with the standard realistic look... almost like a hybrid game. (Maybe they really do think Nintendo = kids) O.o but that's one notion.

Microsoft is also pursuing their old school shooters and classic high end graphics core games - this leads to them really being diverse I believe - which should be helping them a lot but for some reason it's not, maybe it's the mind share that they can't grasp. (As their CEO said, he wished he had a Silver Bullet for that crowd)

Sony is sticking to their guns and pushing titles like Kill Zone 2, but don't forget flow and Pain, granted neither are my cup of tea; I've seen others who can't get enough of them... but Sony doesn't seem to head in that direction at all, their big investments speak louder than their smalls ones (Echocrome) but I don't think they aren't paying attention to those titles, (Flow 2?) However although those games catch an odd crowd (niche) it still has core elements to it that I wont mention here. Which is honestly the mind set of Sony.

Nintendo seems to be the opposite of the one trick pony, they have so many franchises going for them right now and people seem to be eating them up,
Mario, Zelda, Wii and VC that are wildly accepted, take a closer look and you see the same diversity that Microsoft seems to boast - I guess that's the reason why Microsoft sees their Newton as the answer.

Next time through this would be more than likely:

Option 1:
Sony stay in the market but creates a console using a very efficient version of the Wiimote that has some more bells and whistles - they also cover the same userbase as the Wii.

Microsoft goes into direct competition with Sony and make a console that will pwnt Sony in every way, mainly because they will have a head start on that market and the mind share there from the Xbox360 ventures.

Now know this, in Nintendo's current state they will not ever, and I can't emphasize this enough, they will not compete with Sony or Microsoft, at least not directly, this company already has at least four or five plans layed out for their next console.

In this option Sony and Microsoft would of course be competing with Nintendo for the 140 million users they acquired on the Wii. However they will be directly competing with the Wii and it's price point of who knows maybe $100 by that point.


Option 2: (2011)

Microsoft drops out of the industry, this is amazingly unlikely but the chance is still there - it all depends on what happens this E3, or they could take some serious hurt. (Another cycle of losses)

Sony has a plan that lays outside of the gaming industry that they intend to see through, however the Wii is indirectly challenging those plans also so are other forms of disrupters, if some one turns on the fan, it's going to start raining shi* and heavily cause it's been piling up since the year 2000 (Specially with the failing of DRM). However the video gaming side of this relies heavily on E3 again and what happens shortly after.

Nintendo is puting themselves in a hard spot, they are the market leader so whatever they do they are sure to inspire another company to do the same, specially since either one (or another) has the money to do so. E3 for them could be a hit or miss but with the efficiency of Nintendo I don't see a miss, I'm not sure what they plan, but the entirety of Option two is based on how I understood a mixture between statements of all three companies CEO's or VP's statements.

A lot of this stuff is easy to conclude to in just the fiscal reports.

Can Nintendo be disrupted - yes, will it have the desired effect? No or most likely not, as their business model is not the traditional one yet.

there's actually a very simple strategy to disrupting Nintendo:

Come out with CONSISTENTLY FUN games to play.

Ensure that the characters in the characters in the game have a uniquely identifiable personality.

Market those characters well, don't half ass it, the point isn't money, but reputation.

Don't try to market to a niche audience, have a little something for everyone to enjoy. Just cause it's for kids doesn't mean you have to turn the story into "the pokey little puppy" and just cause it should be a challenge to master the game doesn't mean it should be a trial just to play it.

Build on success established by preceding guidelines and innovate.


The only problem with all these steps is that no one has really DONE any of the preceding steps to make the last step viable.

Well, isn't this great? I just came back from school and the thread exploded!
Keep those good posts coming! I've read all of them, don't worry, but sadly it would take me a lot of time to answer them.

Just continue posting your toughts!

I beleive disrupt Nintento you need released TRUE HD console with true 1080p res HD games. =))

Wii is re-pack Gamecube very bad technologi with modern standard. All can see graphic are crappy. =)

True gamer WANT HD graphic gamíng experience. =)))

When BIG franchise MGS4,GT5, LPB, FFXIV, Versus, R2, KZ2 Infamous, Wardevil, Heavy Rain, 8 days, Afrika, Getaway 3, GoW3 R2, M:PR, WKS, WarD, InF, G3, FFXIII, GT5, GoW3, HR, TI, N, FFXIIIv, T6, 8d Motorstorm: Pacific Rift, Tekken 6, Siren, Naruto PS3, Valkyrie Chronicles, Disgaea 3, Hot Shot Golf 5 and etc release THEN Nintendo will be disrupted. =)))

Ever notice how the posters with poor English skills are always so far out of touch with reality as far as the market and what the main demand is out there?

Yeah, sure, true gamers want HD experience. Much more important than good gameplay, right? As long as the pictures are pretty..... Good theory for the ADD kids.

@ slimebeast

lol

OT: Right now, there's only two things that could stop nintendo.

1) http://nicedeb.files.wordpress.com/2007/12/chuck_norris.jpg

2) http://philip9876.files.wordpress.com/2007/10/nuclear-explosion.jpg

 As for what could unseat them next gen, I don't know. Of course, not launching a console at $600 should help Sony a lot and hopefully M$ will have learned the value of testing your hardware before you sell it.

@grampy and bardicverse: I think Slimebeast was using sarcasm by imitating Crazzyman...

And yes, I think Nintendo can be disrupted, but with all the experience they've had, including the experience of being pwned by the new kid in class, they'll know enough to disrupt for themselves to maintain market leadership for a LONG time.

 EDIT: as a very slow and casual poster of this forum, I'm pleased to announce this is my 200th post!!!