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Forums - Nintendo - Box Office Predictions? The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

 

Will Mario Galaxy outperform the OG in lifetime box office?

Yes, The Mario Galaxy Mov... 2 8.33%
 
Yeah but marginally. 4 16.67%
 
About the same. If not, slightly more/less 8 33.33%
 
No, though not by much. 9 37.50%
 
Nope. No shot. 1 4.17%
 
Total:24
Torpoleon 1 day ago

Definitely clears $1b, but I still don't see it passing the first movie. If it does, that would be great. I do see it coming respectably close though at least.



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mZuzek 1 day ago
IcaroRibeiro said:

Assuming good reviews, it will gross 20 to 30% less in USA and Japan. Elsewhere it will gross around the same or slightly worse. 1.1 to 1.2 billion it is

Assuming lukewarm reviews, it will decrease by 40% or more in USA, and 20~30% elsewhere. 800~900 million

Assuming bad reviews, 600~700 million

I don't think nearly that many people care about how good the movie is. Most people enjoyed the first Mario movie on the basis of "just turn your brain off and look at the references", those people will continue to pay and enjoy it. I'm not seeing it because I'm not paying to watch another bad committee movie, but I'm in the minority for sure.

I think the lowest it can go is 800 million, but more likely I see it ending around 1.1-1.2 billion.



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Wman1996 1 day ago

1.361 billion for the first movie.
I'm thinking 1.05-1.25 billion for this one.



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PAOerfulone 1 day ago

One thing is for sure.
Based on the first movie plus the reviews for the second movie - Miyamoto could not give two shits about story and plot.

He might be able to get away with that with video games. But movies? Where they are specifically built around story and plot - Not so much.



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Ashadelo 1 day ago

Its already pulling in big numbers. My guess is 1.43 billion in the end



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firebush03 23 hours ago

I’m thinking it’ll do better than the OG. AFAIK don’t sequel films often do better? Since then they have an established audience, in addition to all the new people who will try it out for the first time.



LipeJJ 23 hours ago

Around 1b and that's a good thing.

Movies are having a much harder time these days...



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Chrkeller 11 hours ago

I am confident it will do extremely well, but man those reviews are rough. Getting ripped hard.



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IcaroRibeiro 11 hours ago
Veknoid_Outcast said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Assuming good reviews, it will gross 20 to 30% less in USA and Japan. Elsewhere it will gross around the same or slightly worse. 1.1 to 1.2 billion it is

Assuming lukewarm reviews, it will decrease by 40% or more in USA, and 20~30% elsewhere. 800~900 million

Assuming bad reviews, 600~700 million

I dunno. I think a movie like The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is review-proof. The original hit 46/100 on Metacritic and went on to gross $1.36 billion.

I don't think there's any way this movie doesn't clear $1 billion.

No movie is review proof. The first one would definitely have grossed a lot more if the reviews were not mixed

The consensus for people who watched is it was mediocre. There will definitely a large audience who will not come back

Deadline is predicting 350 million global opening. My experience following box office is this prediction will decrease a bit, because right now the game is sitting at only 44% on Rotten tomatoes

I'll stick with my 800~900 million range. Unless the movie indeed open with 350 million, in this case 1 billion is indeed very likely



IcaroRibeiro 11 hours ago
firebush03 said:

I’m thinking it’ll do better than the OG. AFAIK don’t sequel films often do better? Since then they have an established audience, in addition to all the new people who will try it out for the first time.

Sequels of out-of-box blockbusters smash hits rarely do as well as the first ones. The are exceptions of course, and animations are generally those exceptions 

Incredibles, Frozen, Inside Out

However those are all movies with large hiatus