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IcaroRibeiro said:

Assuming good reviews, it will gross 20 to 30% less in USA and Japan. Elsewhere it will gross around the same or slightly worse. 1.1 to 1.2 billion it is

Assuming lukewarm reviews, it will decrease by 40% or more in USA, and 20~30% elsewhere. 800~900 million

Assuming bad reviews, 600~700 million

I don't think nearly that many people care about how good the movie is. Most people enjoyed the first Mario movie on the basis of "just turn your brain off and look at the references", those people will continue to pay and enjoy it. I'm not seeing it because I'm not paying to watch another bad committee movie, but I'm in the minority for sure.

I think the lowest it can go is 800 million, but more likely I see it ending around 1.1-1.2 billion.