Israel already did, they bombed Beirut yesterday and Iran vowed to pay back in kind. Trump is begging Iran not to respond but won't stop Netanyahu. So unless Trump gets Israel to back off Lebanon, this is just another deal to nowhere.

"Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei says ending the war in Lebanon is an ‘inseparable’ part of the US-Iran agreement, adding Israel must honour its commitments or face an Iranian response."


It's not a stimulus package, it's war reparations.

Iranian officials estimate the direct and indirect damages to be in the realm of $270 billion. The devastation will require years to repair and rebuild, creating massive economic repercussions for the country.

And don't forget the human cost:

Over 3,300 people have been killed in Iran, including more than 1,700 civilians (with over 250 children among the victims). Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced from heavily targeted regions, especially in and around the capital, Tehran.

$300 Billion is getting off cheap.

I thought the US would eventually have this one in the bag but Trump + Hegseth is a too great a debuff it seems.

Iran is very likely just stringing the US govenment along and in 60 days I expect we'll be back to blockades and negotiations starting from scratch again.

It’s amateur hour at the Pentagon.

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w2lTWGvFQ-E

Ok I guess I spoke way to soon in my earlier post..

Trump announces the greatest deal ever, pops the champagne, and Israel bombs Lebanon 30 minutes later like they didn't get the memo. Then Netanyahu publicly says Israel isn't bound by any of the terms, our own "ally" telling us to kick rocks on live TV. At this point Israel isn't an ally, it's a roommate who doesn't pay rent, breaks your stuff, and still somehow has a key. The fix is simple, cut the money, cut the weapons. But nobody in Washington will even say that out loud, which tells you everything about how this ends.

Yeah this market manipulation cycle has been going on since before the first 'ceasefire'. Global recession is assured, the strait won't be open this year and the Red Sea (Houthis) is next. Washington nor anyone else is going to stop Netanyahu, billionaires are making money off the higher oil prices and market swings. The ones that suffer don't have any power to stop it. The rest that will suffer don't have the imagination to stop it.

Assuming Iran abides by this deal (and the USA and others do too), they look stupid yet again not developing nuclear weapons.
Prior to the recent attacks from Israel and the USA, I understand why Iran didn't develop nukes. But after all that's happened recently and the USA going back on the Iran Deal in 2018 Iran leaves itself open to attacks.
Why hasn't the US attacked North Korea, for instance? That's right, North Korea has nukes. Same with China and Russia.
Iran held up its end of the Iran Deal, and the USA withdrew from it. Iran still made no nukes and got attacked anyway, including over 2,000 civilians.
I want this agreement to lead to peace and stop the bloodshed, but I am very skeptical given history.

Iran has much better things than nukes, they can shut down the gulf states any time. That's the threat that has Trump capitulate now, he can not protect the oil states the world runs on. All Iran has to do is knock out the power in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and mess up Saudia Arabia's ports. 

Iran has the popular support, nukes aren't popular. Iran can get everything they want with their missiles and drones, precision attacks on infrastructure. Over 3,000 deaths in Iran only further erode support for USIsrael, while Iran has done much more damage economically without targeting civilians.

Iran has no issues abiding by this deal, it's Israel that has 'issues'. 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/death-toll-in-gaza-since-ceasefire-with-israel-goes-past-1000
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/17/israeli-air-strikes-on-lebanon-continue-threatening-us-iran-deal

There is no ceasefire when Israel is involved. As long as Trump can't restrain Netanyahu, this is all just show. Tiring good cop / bad cop nonsense. Except with trump and netanyahu it's mush brain idiot vs can't stop making more wars.

Could the US actually stop Israel?

Trump backs Iran over missile programme, Vance warns Netanyahu over peace deal

US President Donald Trump has caused a political earthquake of sorts by defending Iran's missile programme, much to the discomfort of his allies, including Benjamin Netanyahu. This has prompted US Vice President JD Vance to warn his Israeli counterparts to be careful when launching personal attacks against Trump over the Iran peace deal. In this video, Rifat Jawaid analyses the seismic shift in the US position on Iran.


Trump and Vance seem genuinely done with Netanyahu and his cabinet.

The level of spin around this tentative deal is hilarious. This war is 100% Trump's fault and responsibility and yet right wing media is tripping over itself to blame Vance for a deal he likely had no say over. If it wasn't obvious before I don't think he's the heir apparent any more, lol.