And the answer is no (Could the US actually stop Israel?)

Setback for Trump as Iran closes Strait in response to Lebanon violation

In a blow to Donald Trump, Iran today announced that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz as the Islamic Republic accused the US of violating the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding recently signed by the American president. Iran has long said that Lebanon was its red line and any military strikes will be met with a harsh response. Rifat Jawaid analyses the development and its geopolitical significance.

Good breakdown of the winners and losers of the Iran war thus far:

How long until the oil reserves run out? It doesn't seem anything but a global recession will end this.

Trump faces diplomatic snub in Qatar as Iran demands MoU compliance first

In another setback to US President Donald Trump, the Iranian delegation refused to meet the American delegation in Qatar today. The Islamic Republic said that there will be no further negotiations with the US until it complies with the terms of the MoU signed by Trump himself. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson also repeated his country's red line on Lebanon. Rifat Jawaid examines the day's key developments with his sharp commentary.

U.S.-Iran ceasefire called off after strikes resume. Is there an end to this conflict in sight?

U.S. officials say Iran fired missiles at commercial ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz Monday night.

What does this mean for the pause on the war and peace talks?

Trump scrambles travel plans over threats to life; calls off Iran ceasefire

US President Donald Trump has officially declared the end of the ceasefire with Iran following a dramatic military escalation in the Gulf. After a wave of US airstrikes, Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes targeting American military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Amid active intelligence warnings that he remains Iran's "number one target," President Trump confirmed he has altered his travel plans due to imminent threats to his life. Tensions are at an all-time high tonight as Trump warns the US is postured to strike Iran's critical infrastructure next—including its vital water desalination plants. Will full-scale war erupt tonight? Watch for the latest updates. Rifat Jawaid brings day's big stories with his sharp analysis.

And oil prices are going up again. This won't end until either Trump or Netanyahu lose power or die. And it will get a whole lot worse if Trump actually gives the go ahead to go after civilian infrastructure. That will be the end of the gulf states, those that keep the AI bubble afloat...

Taco Tuesday again, still over 3 months to go for elections in the US...

US President Donald Trump has been forced to renege on his plans to collect a 20% cargo fee from commercial ships in exchange for providing them safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. This sudden policy reversal came amidst a wave of Iranian retaliation that is gaining momentum, with the IRGC striking several American military bases across the Gulf region. Facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan have been the worst hit.

Trump cornered as Iran expands war; targets UAE, hits oil tanker in Hormuz

After inflicting heavy losses on the US military in Jordan, Iran has expanded its retaliatory strikes across the region by targeting a key military base in the UAE. This escalation was followed by reports of explosions onboard a commercial tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the crew to abandon the ship. These rapid developments have prompted military experts to conclude that the Islamic Republic currently holds the upper hand in the conflict.

US casualties are ramping up, oil and gas prices keep rising. By September strategic oil reserves won't be able to dampen the effects of a 13 million barrel a day deficit from the Strait of Hormuz and Iran has threatened to end the 7 million barrels a day that still make it out bypassing the Strait. Meanwhile Israel is not letting up on its invasion and destruction of Lebanon, a key point for Iran before re-opening the Strait. 

US Is RUNNING OUT Of Weapons In Iran War

The US is running out of weapons in its war with Iran. And the Houthis, its allies in Yemen, have just announced an embargo on Saudi oil in the Red Sea, which threatens to send oil prices spiraling.

Yeah, it looks increasingly like Trump tries to pull a Linebacker II repeat... except that this time, they won't be able to sell it as a victory at home, unlike what they did in Vietnam when they pulled out of there.

BREAKING: Israel is preparing for a unilateral strike on Iran, as it concludes the U.S. is no longer willing to finish the war on its terms — a move that will make Israel Iran's primary target in this phase of the conflict, per Israeli Channel 13.

The U.S. is seeking an exit. U.S. Gen. Dan Caine is "looking for an off ramp" and believes airpower alone won't defeat Iran. Israel sees U.S. diplomacy as a dead end and is now preparing to act unilaterally — because it cannot accept that Iran has outlasted the campaign.

Iran has already threatened to strike Israel's Haifa refinery and Tel Aviv directly if Israel escalates. Israel's own interceptor stocks are critically low, leaving it vulnerable to the very retaliation it would provoke. Tehran has demonstrated the ability to penetrate Israeli air defenses in previous barrages, and a unilateral Israeli strike would invite a response that could overwhelm Israel's depleted defenses.

Netanyahu's calculus is political, not strategic. Facing October elections, he needs a victory to boost his standing. Striking Iran is his last card — but Iran has already shown it can withstand U.S. strikes and emerge stronger. Israel's independent action would only prove its inability to defeat Iran without American backing.

That would be a very bad idea. Iran has been systematically destroying US bases and missile defense capabilities on the path from Iran to Israel, hence the strikes in Iraq and Jordan. Meanwhile Saudi Arabia is shaking from the Houthis' response to targeting Yemen. That together with critically low stock of interceptor missiles and Iran still having plenty advanced missiles it would be suicide.

But maybe Netanyahu is planning to invoke the Samson option crying self defense. That's the ultimate danger.

Netanyahu maneuvered himself into an impasse.

His coalition between right-wingers, ultranationalists and ultrareligious is falling apart due to some big divergences between the groups (for instance, the ultrareligious want to be out of military service, but the others argue that they are already short on soldiers and needs them to drop this. Unfortunately, this is one of the main reason d'être for the ultrareligious party, so they absolutely won't back down on this), insurgence from within and strengthening of more centrist parties (Together and Yashar, both taken together reach about 35% of the votes). Likud is going down steadily and will probably be below 20% by the time of the elections, and with the divisions within his coalition, he will certainly not get them all again for a coalition government, meaning they will fall below the threshold.

The big issue will be that the result risks to be very fragmented, which generally benefits the more extreme parties...