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Forums - Gaming - Hilarious wrong predictions

In 2010, a firm called Strategy Analytics predicted that the PS3 would outsell the Wii and reach 127 million; that's 40 million more than it did historically.

This wouldn't have been so bad if they'd predicted it in like 2006, but by 2010 it should have been abundantly clear this was not happening.

https://www.pcmag.com/archive/analyst-sony-playstation-3-will-win-in-the-end-248999

Another fun one was from Bioware co-founder Greg Zeschuk, who predicted in 2004 that by 2025 physical controllers would be a thing of the past, and that we'd all be using virtual controllers using light or magnetic fields, or even direct input into our nervous system a la The Matrix:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90723436/video-game-giants-predicted-the-future-of-gaming-in-2004-howd-they-do

SvennoJ said:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/460539/michael-pachter-predicts-xbox-game-pass-will-top-200-million-subscribers-in-10-years/

Well there's 2 more years left...

Oof.



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curl-6 said:

In 2010, a firm called Strategy Analytics predicted that the PS3 would outsell the Wii and reach 127 million; that's 40 million more than it did historically.

This wouldn't have been so bad if they'd predicted it in like 2006, but by 2010 it should have been abundantly clear this was not happening.

https://www.pcmag.com/archive/analyst-sony-playstation-3-will-win-in-the-end-248999

Another fun one was from Bioware co-founder Greg Zeschuk, who predicted in 2004 that by 2025 physical controllers would be a thing of the past, and that we'd all be using virtual controllers using light or magnetic fields, or even direct input into our nervous system a la The Matrix:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90723436/video-game-giants-predicted-the-future-of-gaming-in-2004-howd-they-do

SvennoJ said:

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/460539/michael-pachter-predicts-xbox-game-pass-will-top-200-million-subscribers-in-10-years/

Well there's 2 more years left...

Oof.

Ooofff indeed. 

Nonetheless I quite liked the dream and the idea of the full VR immersion capable headset. In 2013 when I watched Sword Art Online, that sh*t sounded like a dream and then Oculus VR was founded and I thought we were getting there slowly but surely ....

Hmmm not so sure about the NerveGear part anymore 🥲



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

I almost forgot that Second Life was ever a thing. It was enough of a fad for Anshe Chung to make a few million, I guess.



Can we remake this thread but we all make predictions and look back on them in time to see if they become Hilariously wrong or not. Many will laugh but I predict the Switch 2 to be a Wii U sort of deal, not as bad, Nintendo will make their money and they still have 150+ million switches to sell games on. They aren't loosing much in this as they can still sell Switch 1s cause the Switch 2 is simply a PRO console for all intents, they have designed it so they can't fail even if it fails despite the "2" in the name. I predict less than 40 million LT, I wanna say 30 million but I'll be cut it down the middle at go 35 million. It'll sell right out the gate like the Wii U and get over 20 million fairly fast but given all the conditions It'll slow and then It'll slow to a crawl. Parent will not buy this thing, Kids will still be on Switch 1. We will not see hardware price reduction in the lifetime of this system or at least the vast majority of it, we'll be lucky if the price does not go up and it just might. That said, Switches will still sell.



You can always count on Patcher's predictions for a good laugh:

https://mynintendonews.com/2014/09/06/pachter-believes-nintendo-will-abandon-hardware-and-will-go-third-party-next-gen/



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LegitHyperbole said:

Can we remake this thread but we all make predictions and look back on them in time to see if they become Hilariously wrong or not. Many will laugh but I predict the Switch 2 to be a Wii U sort of deal, not as bad, Nintendo will make their money and they still have 150+ million switches to sell games on. They aren't loosing much in this as they can still sell Switch 1s cause the Switch 2 is simply a PRO console for all intents, they have designed it so they can't fail even if it fails despite the "2" in the name. I predict less than 40 million LT, I wanna say 30 million but I'll be cut it down the middle at go 35 million. It'll sell right out the gate like the Wii U and get over 20 million fairly fast but given all the conditions It'll slow and then It'll slow to a crawl. Parent will not buy this thing, Kids will still be on Switch 1. We will not see hardware price reduction in the lifetime of this system or at least the vast majority of it, we'll be lucky if the price does not go up and it just might. That said, Switches will still sell.

How is the Switch 2 a "pro" console? It has exclusives built for it, numerous games not available on Switch 1, and the leap in graphics is at least on par with PS4 to PS5.



curl-6 said:
LegitHyperbole said:

Can we remake this thread but we all make predictions and look back on them in time to see if they become Hilariously wrong or not. Many will laugh but I predict the Switch 2 to be a Wii U sort of deal, not as bad, Nintendo will make their money and they still have 150+ million switches to sell games on. They aren't loosing much in this as they can still sell Switch 1s cause the Switch 2 is simply a PRO console for all intents, they have designed it so they can't fail even if it fails despite the "2" in the name. I predict less than 40 million LT, I wanna say 30 million but I'll be cut it down the middle at go 35 million. It'll sell right out the gate like the Wii U and get over 20 million fairly fast but given all the conditions It'll slow and then It'll slow to a crawl. Parent will not buy this thing, Kids will still be on Switch 1. We will not see hardware price reduction in the lifetime of this system or at least the vast majority of it, we'll be lucky if the price does not go up and it just might. That said, Switches will still sell.

How is the Switch 2 a "pro" console? It has exclusives built for it, numerous games not available on Switch 1, and the leap in graphics is at least on par with PS4 to PS5.

I said for "an intents", shortening all intents and purposes and right after explained what I mean, if it's going great to be read out of context I would say it will eventaully cement itself as a pro console for all intents and and purposes when everything is said and done by the way they have set it up so it can be either. One quote was "Buy a Switch, we have that if you can't afford a Switch 2" or something along those lines, not exactly the mark of a confident successor. 



JackHandy said:

I remember most of us laughing our asses off when Nintendo unveiled the Wii for the first time. We were like, okay, so you fail miserably with the Gamecube, and your answer is this nonsense? Are you kidding? We were all but certain this would be the end of the company.

Then we saw all the people stampeding over each other to play it at that years E3 and... well... crow meet mouth.

I also believe there were more than a fair share of people predicting the DS's demise because Sony had entered the picture with what seemed to be the PS1 situation all over again (better tech, disc-based media etc). That didn't work out so well, either. Although in the end, the PSP did finish respectably.

I absolutely was not in this camp. Actually, the only reason I’m here at VGC was that I was convinced the Revolution, later the Wii, was going to do well and I wanted to find a place that tracked the numbers. I actually don’t remember that many naysayers around here at the time. 



LegitHyperbole said:
curl-6 said:

How is the Switch 2 a "pro" console? It has exclusives built for it, numerous games not available on Switch 1, and the leap in graphics is at least on par with PS4 to PS5.

I said for "an intents", shortening all intents and purposes and right after explained what I mean, if it's going great to be read out of context I would say it will eventaully cement itself as a pro console for all intents and and purposes when everything is said and done by the way they have set it up so it can be either. One quote was "Buy a Switch, we have that if you can't afford a Switch 2" or something along those lines, not exactly the mark of a confident successor.

Nintendo is obviously not setting it up as a pro console. It's called the "Switch 2" and it has a giant ass 2 on its logo. Hell, it's the first time they used numbers like this for a console.

It's also getting the next Mario Kart as a exclusive day one and MK8 DX was the best selling Switch 1 game.

Not to mention it's a huge graphical and technical leap. Probably even bigger than going from PS3 to PS4.

They couldn't be more clear: it's the Switch successor.



 

Me after seeing Angry Birds for the first time: "So Crush the Castle rip-off, just with some birds - yeah, who cares"

(in voice of Squidward) "One year later": Blimey, this is massive!!!