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Forums - Sales - How many extra consoles will GTA 6 sell?

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Norion said:
EricHiggin said:

"The average price of goods will remain higher than it was back then, and keep increasing over time". This is what I said, but back then PS5 wasn't $700. Inflation has calmed down somewhat but isn't back to where it should be yet. Businesses also take time to adjust for various reasons, like taking advantage. Tariffs are also holding off any price reductions. The worldwide economy still has a ways to go before it gets back to what we would consider normal.

PS1 with present inflation being around $650 doesn't mean much. What matters is that $299 was the sweet spot for mass adoption back then at that time. In 2028, $499 will still be the sweet spot, and if SNY launches at $600, or worse, $700, they're going to end up in a similar position to the PS3's launch. The only way SNY limits the damage with pricing that high, with a typical single SKU, is to go back to dropping the hardware price asap whenever possible.

PS5 Pro is already implementing software to significantly boost performance like PSSR, much like AMD's FSR tech, and this is just the first iteration of it. If you look at FSR4 now, it's very impressive, and SNY and AMD are now working together on that going forward. Just look at what Switch 2 is able to accomplish with its hardware, using software tech like DLSS. PS6 isn't going to need near the hardware you'd typically expect to produce next gen worthy visuals, and less hardware with more powerful software is cheaper to produce.

SNY had its reasons for PS4 ending up lower mid range, because people didn't pay the high launch price they charged for PS3, the economy was still recovering from 2008, plus everyone 'knew' console gaming was dead because mobile was the future. That didn't stop it from selling 120M units. The PS6 strategy won't be focused on, 'we need a new console and it has to be giant leap, no matter the cost.' SNY knows what that mindset leads to, and it's nowhere good.

I really don't think that would be the sweet spot since it wouldn't be lower mid-range, it'd be upper low-end at best but I suppose we can just agree to disagree on this and just wait 2-3 years. I could see Sony offering a cheaper point of entry but I would be very surprised if there isn't at least a mid-range option available for the PS6. If there's a weaker $499 version of the PS6 there's bound to also be a capable $699 version as well.

PS1 (1994) to PS5 (2020) -> Time difference of 26 years -> Price difference of $200

PS4 (2013) to Pro (2016) -> Time difference of 03 years -> Price difference of $0

PS5 (2020) to Pro (2024) -> Time difference of 04 years -> Price difference of $200

Hmmm. I say worst case, $499 in 2030.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.

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EricHiggin said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

I think the PS3 only initially failed because of the 360 though. MS being aggressive with low prices trying hard to compete with them gave everyone an alternative to PS3. What would be the alternative to PS6? The 2tb XBSX is now 730$ so it's clear MS have just said "screw it, we don't care about cheap consoles or our image of being consumer friendly anymore". The Switch 2 doesn't look like it will be strong enough to play games like GTA 6 so that's not an option to leave to. The only potential threat to Sony I see would be Valve making a console version of the steam deck. 

below V.

EricHiggin said:

Plenty of casuals simply won't console game if they can't get what they want for a reasonable price, and will go mobile. Plenty of those casuals will just get a Switch 2 for $449 instead of a $700 PS6 if they're into console type gaming enough. Many would just keep their PS5, or get a used one, even an XB Series, to play GTAVI. Some will even get a PC instead. There's also those who just won't game anymore and will find another pastime. 

SNY forgetting what they learned with PS3 would be a sad gen in console land, because at least XB was there to keep those casuals in the red ocean. Doing something like that again with PS6, without XB being much of a factor, will cause plenty to jump into the blue ocean instead, or will just get out of the water entirely.

Thinking you've got 100M+ guaranteed dedicated customers who will buy your product no matter what is the type of thinking that led to PS3 and its struggle to just hit 87M sales. Doesn't matter if it would be a different situation with the same mindset this time, the outcome will also be different overall yet similar in the end due to that mindset.

Simple question. If the 360 didn't exist, don't you think it's safe to assume ps3 would've got at least another 20 million sales? I think it was the powerful and cheap 360 that swooped in and stole the sales from PS3 that did the damage to the PS3. It wasn't Sony's attitude or mindset that did it. Without 360 the mindset wouldn't have been punished because there would have been no alternative to PS3. People would have had to buy it if they wanted a true next gen console. I don't really consider the Wii part of the ps3/360 battle. 



Hardstuck-Platinum said:
EricHiggin said:

below V.

EricHiggin said:

Plenty of casuals simply won't console game if they can't get what they want for a reasonable price, and will go mobile. Plenty of those casuals will just get a Switch 2 for $449 instead of a $700 PS6 if they're into console type gaming enough. Many would just keep their PS5, or get a used one, even an XB Series, to play GTAVI. Some will even get a PC instead. There's also those who just won't game anymore and will find another pastime. 

SNY forgetting what they learned with PS3 would be a sad gen in console land, because at least XB was there to keep those casuals in the red ocean. Doing something like that again with PS6, without XB being much of a factor, will cause plenty to jump into the blue ocean instead, or will just get out of the water entirely.

Thinking you've got 100M+ guaranteed dedicated customers who will buy your product no matter what is the type of thinking that led to PS3 and its struggle to just hit 87M sales. Doesn't matter if it would be a different situation with the same mindset this time, the outcome will also be different overall yet similar in the end due to that mindset.

Simple question. If the 360 didn't exist, don't you think it's safe to assume ps3 would've got at least another 20 million sales? I think it was the powerful and cheap 360 that swooped in and stole the sales from PS3 that did the damage to the PS3. It wasn't Sony's attitude or mindset that did it. Without 360 the mindset wouldn't have been punished because there would have been no alternative to PS3. People would have had to buy it if they wanted a true next gen console. I don't really consider the Wii part of the ps3/360 battle. 

If the 360 didn't exist, don't you think its safe to assume Wii would've sold another (insert number here) ?  How many more PS2's get sold?

The question isn't that simple. Just because you don't think some casuals would've gone for Wii instead of PS3, doesn't mean they wouldn't.

Without the 360 sales to compare PS3 to early on, would SNY have pushed to downgrade PS3's abilities to get out a cheaper Slim version asap?

I'm going to skip all the other possible PS3 differences there could've been.

If a $599 PS3 somehow, someway, sells $110M+ units or more, what does that mean for PS4?

2013 ish launch still? for $699? 2016 ish launch (or later) for Pro at $799? Does PS4 even hit $100M then?

PS5 around 2020 for $899? Pro around 2024 for $1099?

* PS5 and Pro are still based on Cell BE in this scenario as well.

Last edited by EricHiggin - on 19 May 2025

PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.

Content removed.

Last edited by MigrainePain - on 19 May 2025

MigrainePain said:

Content removed.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

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In the U.S., maybe a few hundred thousand, and then a few hundred thousand more elsewhere. Even the biggest system-sellers in history have only moved about that much (perhaps discounting major launch titles, but since there's no prior sales periods or other useful data points to compare against, it can be hard to measure the effects of those games). With one exception, mainline GTA games have had at least some measurable impact on sales since the series jumped to 3D on the PS2 and became a mega-hit.

San Andreas had the biggest effect of the three Gen 6 GTA games, and so far the biggest effect of any GTA game to date on any single system. It sold a bit over 2M copies on the PS2 in its launch month of Oct. 2004 in the U.S. PS2 hardware sales that month increased to over 380k, up from 253k units the previous month. Even accounting for September being a 5-week sales period, that's a solid 87.7% increase. But numerically it's not astronomical. If we by weekly average sales, then maybe around 175-180k surplus PS2 units were sold that month. As with every other system-seller on record (defining "system-seller" as a game that has an observable positive effect on sales), the vast majority of copies, even at launch, are sold to people who already own the system. Vice City pushed less surplus hardware than San Andreas did, and GTA3 even less than both of them.

The following generation, GTA4 had precisely zero noticeable effect on hardware sales in the U.S. despite selling 1.85M on the 360 and 1M on the PS3. Why this is is anybody's guess. GTA5 did have an effect, particularly on PS3, which was its flagship platform. PS3 sales grew from 71k in Aug. 2013 to 216k in September, an increase of 145k, and that's with September being a 5-week period. 360 sales grew from 96k to 169k, an increase half the size of what we saw on the PS3. To be fair, this was only two months out from the release of the PS4 & XBO, and in the aggregate system-sellers tend to have more muted impacts as a generation progresses due to the ever-shrinking number of late adopters. Also, it was split between two platforms, so if we combine the estimated surplus units sold for both the 360 and PS3, it shifted at least 217k extra units in the month of its release, which would make it the second-biggest system-seller in unit terms of any system ever in the U.S., behind only Destiny (yes, Destiny).

When GTA6 comes out we'll still be at least 18 to 30 months away from the release of the PS6 and Xbox 5 (assuming a 7- or 8-year life cycle), so it won't be as late as GTA5 was, so if it sets new sales records, I could see it moving more hardware than any other game in history, but again we're talking probably well under 500k surplus units combined across both PS5 & XBS in the U.S. Add in the rest of the world and at most it could move maybe around a million surplus hardware units next May.

EricHiggin said:

Typical inflation or overprinting money inflation? Things aren't so expensive now because of typical inflation. Which also means when things settle back down eventually, everything will become a bit cheaper again. Now it won't go back to being as cheap as 2020, due to typical inflation, but unless SNY wants to repeat the 3rd console curse again and tank PS6 sales, they'll put together the best console they can for $499 and will sell that.

Increases in money supply do contribute to inflation, but they aren't the sole cause. Supply and demand dynamics are other contributors, and tariffs can have upwards pressure on prices. In any case, I doubt sticker prices in the aggregate are ever going back down, because they never go back down. When people say "We want prices to go down," what they're asking for is deflation, and we really, really don't want that. We run the risk of a deflationary spiral, which can be far more disastrous than a couple of years of higher-than-average inflation (see also the Great Depression). Even with the occasional bouts of deflation, in the long term the purchasing power of the dollar has always trended downward. There's a reason why you can buy cars for under $10k anymore, or a hamburger for 25 cents. There's a reason why $400 for a console was prohibitive 30 years ago but quite affordable today. There's a reason that $80 that Doc Brown owed Buford Tannen in 1885 was treated like a small fortune, because it was (over $2000 in today's money). None of that has nothing to do with something being "wrong" or "bad" in the economy. It's just a fact of life that a currency gets less valuable over time.

For video games specifically, I suppose it's possible that once all this trade war nonsense dies down console prices won't continue to increase, and we may see $80 games come down to $70, but I honestly doubt it. $70 and even $80 was a long time coming. Games weren't going to stay $60 forever, especially with ever increasing budgets.

only777 said:

Probably just a spambot. We get a ton of those, though other mods usually handle them.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
EricHiggin said:

Typical inflation or overprinting money inflation? Things aren't so expensive now because of typical inflation. Which also means when things settle back down eventually, everything will become a bit cheaper again. Now it won't go back to being as cheap as 2020, due to typical inflation, but unless SNY wants to repeat the 3rd console curse again and tank PS6 sales, they'll put together the best console they can for $499 and will sell that.

Increases in money supply do contribute to inflation, but they aren't the sole cause. Supply and demand dynamics are other contributors, and tariffs can have upwards pressure on prices. In any case, I doubt sticker prices in the aggregate are ever going back down, because they never go back down. When people say "We want prices to go down," what they're asking for is deflation, and we really, really don't want that. We run the risk of a deflationary spiral, which can be far more disastrous than a couple of years of higher-than-average inflation (see also the Great Depression). Even with the occasional bouts of deflation, in the long term the purchasing power of the dollar has always trended downward. There's a reason why you can buy cars for under $10k anymore, or a hamburger for 25 cents. There's a reason why $400 for a console was prohibitive 30 years ago but quite affordable today. There's a reason that $80 that Doc Brown owed Buford Tannen in 1885 was treated like a small fortune, because it was (over $2000 in today's money). None of that has nothing to do with something being "wrong" or "bad" in the economy. It's just a fact of life that a currency gets less valuable over time.

For video games specifically, I suppose it's possible that once all this trade war nonsense dies down console prices won't continue to increase, and we may see $80 games come down to $70, but I honestly doubt it. $70 and even $80 was a long time coming. Games weren't going to stay $60 forever, especially with ever increasing budgets.

Some things will drop in price, others won't. Console parts won't get back down to 2020 levels, so no, SNY nor the others will be able to make a $499 system for the same level of profits as they are now, unless they offer weaker performance while overpricing the hardware at launch. SNY and the others would also have to subsidize the systems even more at launch. Instead of PS5 losing $25 to $50, PS6 may very well lose $50 to $100. Which SNY can deal with, because those were the type of losses on PS5 Digital at launch.

There's another way to solve that problem, but you've got it backwards. It's not game and subscription prices that will go back down, it's hardware.

You raise game and sub prices to offset (future) hardware losses. Nin and MS have already fully made the move, while SNY has only raised sub pricing (in most places). I'd guess SNY is waiting to see how quickly inflation will settle with what Trump is doing in America, including tariffs, and if things can settle quick enough, they might leave the game pricing alone, at least until next gen maybe.

SNY was the first to raise game prices this gen, so they are likely being careful and don't really prefer to raise them again, at least until next gen if possible. SNY may also be thinking strategically against MS, because the quicker XB hardware winds down this gen, the more people SNY could possibly pull into the PS5 ecosystem now, potentially 'locking them in, or, locking them out of XB GP'.



PS1   - ! - We must build a console that can alert our enemies.

PS2  - @- We must build a console that offers online living room gaming.

PS3   - #- We must build a console that’s powerful, social, costs and does everything.

PS4   - $- We must build a console that’s affordable, charges for services, and pumps out exclusives.

PRO  -%-We must build a console that's VR ready, checkerboard upscales, and sells but a fraction of the money printer.

PS5   - ^ -We must build a console that’s a generational cross product, with RT lighting, and price hiking.

PRO  -&- We must build a console that Super Res upscales and continues the cost increases.