How many extra consoles will GTA 6 sell?

[EricHiggin]

Norion said:

EricHiggin said:

If inflation is out of control or 'higher than it should be', than it can be lower in the future. While inflation may only go up overall, it fluctuates day to day. Doing an inflation calculation online only tells you the answer based on inflation as of this moment in time. Now inflation is never going to be less than $499 in 2028, because back in 2020 inflation was right about where it should have been, give or take, but that also doesn't mean it couldn't be say, $575 come 2028. PS5 Pro launched at a time when inflation was far far higher than it should have been, which is part of the reason for it's outrageous cost, aside from the greedy mark up. SNY could make a $550 PS6 and then sell it for $499. They were losing $25 to $50 on PS5 when it launched, so it wouldn't be any different assuming inflation continues to settle down.

There's a reason why PS1 was $299 and not $499. Same reason why PS2 was $299. There's a reason why PS3 was $599, and that's because SNY went full retard due to the third console curse. There's a reason why PS4 was $399. Same reason why PS5 was $499.

PS1 was $299. PS2 was $299. PS3, like the 360, should have been $399. PS4 was $399. PS5 was $499. See the trend? PS6 needs to be $499. Those prices weren't just randomly pulled out of SNY's butt, they're based on things like wage increases, inflation, the markets, brand growth/profits, etc.

People are buying PS5's at about the same rate as PS4's because that's the economic situation we've been in for a while (largely due to things like covid). We also don't know if PS5 is going to have the legs to match PS4's total sales by the end of the gen, assuming 2027/2028. Assuming inflation calms down over the next 5 years, leading to all prices of goods coming down, people won't accept a $599 PS6. It would be way to blatantly obvious that SNY is price gouging people, or that they've lost their minds again like with PS3, and sales would suffer. It the same reason why PS5 Pro's aren't flying off shelves still. The hardcore, or uninformed went out and got one asap, while the majority aren't paying that kinda money for a console, period.

Every PS console has been less of a leap than before, and we're nearing the point of graphics becoming so good that it's getting more and more difficult to tell the difference between the next upgrade. There's a reason why SNY focused so much on things like the new DualSense controller or the SSD speeds, and not so much the Tflops when it came to the PS5 launch. Look how many sales Series S was able to get at 4TF. Look at how many sales Switch got. Why are there likely legit rumors of a SNY handheld if performance is what matters so much to PS gamers? That handheld would be PS5 performance at best come 2028, which may launch around or alongside a PS6. If PS5 Pro owners don't think PS6 is enough of a jump, then they can wait for PS6 Pro, just like how some PS4 Pro owners stuck with that console until PS5 Pro, or are waiting for PS6. Either that or they shouldn't have got a PS5 Pro and just waited.

You're also not taking into account the business model changes the console companies have made. They're making record profits, and more than they used to, because instead of considerably subsidizing the hardware, they're breaking even, if not profiting, by a fair amount throughout the gen. SW2 could have been $399, but Nin has always liked to make profits off the hardware day 1, and has always charged a premium for their products. $349 was being too optimistic, but $399 wasn't out of the question. Nobody knew to expect tariffs back then either when guessing at the pricing.

A $599 PS6, while the max they could try and get away with, won't fly long term, even if it's due to continued out of control inflation. It would end up something like PS3, but this time because people couldn't justify such a high price after so much hardship due to a lengthy wild inflationary period. People can justify the price now with PS5 because the assumption is that inflation will be reined in sooner than later, so they can afford to still be a bit generous when it comes to gaming. That will change though, next gen, if inflation is still much too high and hasn't settled down, and sales will suffer. At $499 next gen (2028), even if inflation continues to be rampant, console sales would still be decent because they'll be borderline affordable still. If inflation has settled down by then, PS6 at $499 will match PS4 and PS5 sales trajectories.

Based on the bolded it really seems like you don't get how this works. Inflation has already mostly calmed down but the high inflation in 2022 and 2023 is never going away unless deflation happens which you really don't want to happen since it would make those years look like a cake walk. The US dollar and other currencies like the Pound are now worth notably less compared to the start of this decade and that will be permanent without deflation so unless something catastrophic happens causing that the average price of goods will remain higher than it was back then and keep increasing in price over time.

You mention the prices of past Playstation consoles but the PS1's $299 launch price is already worth nearly $650 today and the PS2 and PS4 are at about $550 so a $499 PS6 2-3 years from now would be the cheapest Playstation yet by a notable margin. The PS4's price was just a return to the norm since the PS3 was an outlier with how expensive it was. $299 in 2001 was worth almost $399 when the PS4 launched so if the PS6 follows the usual pricing it'll be at minimum $599 unless it's an outlier and is unusually cheap cause $499 is already worth about $615 and will keep increasing over the next 2-3 years.

If you think the PS6 will be an outlier in that way and will be a low end console instead of mid-range then fair enough but it would be a big departure from the usual strategy at offering mid-range hardware for a good price which is why I'd find the PS6 being that cheap a big surprise. Like Microsoft released the low end Series S but still offered a good mid-range option as well and you mentioned the Switch but even Nintendo is following that strategy again since the Switch was a fairly capable handheld device for early 2017 and the Switch 2 is also fairly capable for mid 2025. Compared to a home console it's still really weak of course but standards are very different for handhelds and compared to current PC handhelds the Switch 2 holds up well.

"The average price of goods will remain higher than it was back then, and keep increasing over time". This is what I said, but back then PS5 wasn't $700. Inflation has calmed down somewhat but isn't back to where it should be yet. Businesses also take time to adjust for various reasons, like taking advantage. Tariffs are also holding off any price reductions. The worldwide economy still has a ways to go before it gets back to what we would consider normal.

PS1 with present inflation being around $650 doesn't mean much. What matters is that $299 was the sweet spot for mass adoption back then at that time. In 2028, $499 will still be the sweet spot, and if SNY launches at $600, or worse, $700, they're going to end up in a similar position to the PS3's launch. The only way SNY limits the damage with pricing that high, with a typical single SKU, is to go back to dropping the hardware price asap whenever possible.

PS5 Pro is already implementing software to significantly boost performance like PSSR, much like AMD's FSR tech, and this is just the first iteration of it. If you look at FSR4 now, it's very impressive, and SNY and AMD are now working together on that going forward. Just look at what Switch 2 is able to accomplish with its hardware, using software tech like DLSS. PS6 isn't going to need near the hardware you'd typically expect to produce next gen worthy visuals, and less hardware with more powerful software is cheaper to produce.

SNY had its reasons for PS4 ending up lower mid range, because people didn't pay the high launch price they charged for PS3, the economy was still recovering from 2008, plus everyone 'knew' console gaming was dead because mobile was the future. That didn't stop it from selling 120M units. The PS6 strategy won't be focused on, 'we need a new console and it has to be giant leap, no matter the cost.' SNY knows what that mindset leads to, and it's nowhere good.