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Norion on 18 May 2025
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EricHiggin said:
Norion said:

Based on the bolded it really seems like you don't get how this works. Inflation has already mostly calmed down but the high inflation in 2022 and 2023 is never going away unless deflation happens which you really don't want to happen since it would make those years look like a cake walk. The US dollar and other currencies like the Pound are now worth notably less compared to the start of this decade and that will be permanent without deflation so unless something catastrophic happens causing that the average price of goods will remain higher than it was back then and keep increasing in price over time.

You mention the prices of past Playstation consoles but the PS1's $299 launch price is already worth nearly $650 today and the PS2 and PS4 are at about $550 so a $499 PS6 2-3 years from now would be the cheapest Playstation yet by a notable margin. The PS4's price was just a return to the norm since the PS3 was an outlier with how expensive it was. $299 in 2001 was worth almost $399 when the PS4 launched so if the PS6 follows the usual pricing it'll be at minimum $599 unless it's an outlier and is unusually cheap cause $499 is already worth about $615 and will keep increasing over the next 2-3 years.

If you think the PS6 will be an outlier in that way and will be a low end console instead of mid-range then fair enough but it would be a big departure from the usual strategy of offering mid-range hardware for a good price which is why I'd find the PS6 being that cheap a big surprise. Like Microsoft released the low end Series S but still offered a good mid-range option as well and you mentioned the Switch but even Nintendo is following that strategy again since the Switch was a fairly capable handheld device for early 2017 and the Switch 2 is also fairly capable for mid 2025. Compared to a home console it's still really weak of course but standards are very different for handhelds and compared to current PC handhelds the Switch 2 holds up well.

"The average price of goods will remain higher than it was back then, and keep increasing over time". This is what I said, but back then PS5 wasn't $700. Inflation has calmed down somewhat but isn't back to where it should be yet. Businesses also take time to adjust for various reasons, like taking advantage. Tariffs are also holding off any price reductions. The worldwide economy still has a ways to go before it gets back to what we would consider normal.

PS1 with present inflation being around $650 doesn't mean much. What matters is that $299 was the sweet spot for mass adoption back then at that time. In 2028, $499 will still be the sweet spot, and if SNY launches at $600, or worse, $700, they're going to end up in a similar position to the PS3's launch. The only way SNY limits the damage with pricing that high, with a typical single SKU, is to go back to dropping the hardware price asap whenever possible.

PS5 Pro is already implementing software to significantly boost performance like PSSR, much like AMD's FSR tech, and this is just the first iteration of it. If you look at FSR4 now, it's very impressive, and SNY and AMD are now working together on that going forward. Just look at what Switch 2 is able to accomplish with its hardware, using software tech like DLSS. PS6 isn't going to need near the hardware you'd typically expect to produce next gen worthy visuals, and less hardware with more powerful software is cheaper to produce.

SNY had its reasons for PS4 ending up lower mid range, because people didn't pay the high launch price they charged for PS3, the economy was still recovering from 2008, plus everyone 'knew' console gaming was dead because mobile was the future. That didn't stop it from selling 120M units. The PS6 strategy won't be focused on, 'we need a new console and it has to be giant leap, no matter the cost.' SNY knows what that mindset leads to, and it's nowhere good.

I really don't think that would be the sweet spot since it wouldn't be lower mid-range, it'd be upper low-end at best but I suppose we can just agree to disagree on this and just wait 2-3 years. I could see Sony offering a cheaper point of entry but I would be very surprised if there isn't at least a mid-range option available for the PS6. If there's a weaker $499 version of the PS6 there's bound to also be a capable $699 version as well.