So we are one year away from the biggest video game launch of all time, by release time this generation of consoles would have been out five and half years.

So the question is how many new consoles do people think will be sold during the launch of GTA VI?

I think there are a few points to consider:

1) The game is not coming to the PC for a while yet, so maybe that is an area where there could be a lot of movment.

2) Xbox sales have almost crashed, in a year from now we probably would have seen a Halo PS5 release and Xbox sales probably would have died off completely.  I find it unlikey buying the console for the first time a year from now will be something many people will be doing.

3) PS5 Pro will be the home of the highest fidelity version of GTA 6.  I can see some exsisting PlayStation users upgrading to a Pro, and I'd expect most PC users picking up a system to play GTA 6 will also choose a Pro.

What do you guys think?  3 Mllion extra units sold during launch month with a 70/30 Base/Pro Split?

I think the problem is that by the time GTA 6 releases, PS5 will already be close to 100 million sales. That means that it would already have sold the clear majority of its lifetime sales at that point, unless you expect PS5 to top 150-160 million sold units eventually.

I think the only major thing GTA 6 could do is to make PS5 sell more than PS4 in lifetime sales, but i don't think it can't boost it much higher than that.

I'd say it already began at the end of last year, we night see a small bump over last year in November, January and then the release of GTA6 as well as people upgrading to PRO and we won't see those second hand sales of the people upgrading. I'd say about 8- 10 million people are and will be swayed into purchasing a PS5 or XsX/Seres S but mainly PS5 cause of pricing now, whether they will end up in the bumps or not, after release or in a second hand sale. GTA has crazy power though, I may be underestimating the post release effect. If Vollege football can bump things like it did then surely GTA would be more than ten fold that... anyway, we'll never see concrete data on it.

Thing is, it depends on console pricing and the US and China figuring things out. If Sony can hold out and remain at their price point they will be such big winners in this. 

Old news but during the early days of VGchartz...

We had a huge debate about how GTA IV will be huge for console sales but the month the game released the console sales were down...

Most people who want GTA VI already have a console to play it on?

There's like an order of magnitude in sales between GTA4 and GTA5, and probably way more than that in average playtime. No comparison is possible between these two.

Proportionally speaking, GTA4 is closer to Saints Row than to GTA5.

I don't own a console at the moment, I was planning on buying the PS5 Pro when GTA 6 came out.

Then I saw the PS5 Pro price and bought a 4070 instead, so this thread would've been about buyers like me but I'm just gonna wait.

Mmm pretty sure the consoles for the launch month of GTA V weren't that much an upswing to begin with. We already had this debate a few months back. 

Biggest software launch or no. It'll have likely an impact it's first few months that is muted by the fact we're too far into the generation, meaning the pool of existing new buyers only interested in that software is far fewer than when the announcement was made last year.

And the actual game doesn't even release before next year in May(if not later) to begin which will make that potential pool even smaller 

If Xbox launches their next system early to coincide with a GTA VI release, then maybe quite a bit.

How much could GTA 6 boost PS5? PS5 will be close to 100 million sold units by the time GTA 6 launches. I don't see PS5 selling that much more than PS4 lifetime sales. Meaning that GTA 6 would at most be the reason why PS5 could sell more than PS4 in lifetime sales, even though it has trended below PS4 sales as of yet.

It's gotta be somewhere in the range of 5-10m or something..... imo.
These are just new users, that likely only buy a console for that 1 game.
The people that know about it being console first, and that are typically gamers have already likely gotten their console of choice.
So this is more of a "theres probably like 10m casuals" that'll pick one up to play it type of deal.