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Forums - Sales Discussion - Toyo Securities estimates Final Fantasy 16 has sold 3.5 million

JRPGfan said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

This is the correct answer. FF didn't use to sell because it was turn based, this is nonsense. Turn based JRPGs always sold poorly. In reality Final Fantasy was a game that was always sold to non-JRPG fans as well, so being turn based or not was never the point 

Final Fantasy were among the best selling game because they were technical showcases of hardware capabilities and overall among the best games of their generations.  

This is just not the case anymore. Nobody looks at Final Fantasy and think "This is the current pinnacle of gaming", there are other IPs that steal this spot now

If FF go turn based again it will sell at best in ~5 million range, because this is how much a turn based JRPG sells. Persona 5 needed a re-release and be multi platform including Switch and PC to get over 5 million (the 7.2 million figure includes Strikers sales)

And goes without saying Persona 5 is by far the best received JRPG last generation

That's said there is an audience for turn based Final Fantasy. Maybe Square should release turn based spin offs, that way they could satisfy the older fandom 

Persona 5 games went over 10m copies sold back in 2023, around September.
(yes, ~2,5m of that was probably Strikers, a fighting spin off....)

However a year lateron? I think its safe to assume, that Persona 5 (with its re-release) went over 10m.
You can make a Turn based game sell well.
Hell Pokemon is turn based, right? that thing sells like crazy.

The figure included Tactica and Dancing as well. And Atlus are masters at selling the same game over and over again. Base game on PS3 and PS4 (no crossbuy), P5R PS4 (no upgrade path), P5R PS5 (no upgrade path). They're the slimiest mfs in the business and I'm happy to skip Metaphor this time for the eventual ultimate version.

Pokemon is a cultural phenomenon and an outlier. But I would love to see SquareEnix try classic ATB/turnbased again on a spinoff that takes itself more seriously than World of FF.



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Kyuu said:

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They didn't say less than X they said not as well rounded which can be a valid stance as XI was an awkward entry even for a MMO and XII's despite being a good game system was very divisive to the point an edition of the game overhauling aspects of the mechanics was released this is similar to Skyward Sword a good game but divisive, also refrain from insulting them it's not called for.

I remember the situation well with the RE games, REV1 and 2 weren't disappointments in fact they were seen as Capcom taking the series back in the right direction after RE6 and secondly the argument is not about RE7 and RE8 being ground breaking it's about consistency in quality affecting the run up something SE has faltered with for the longest time, are RE7 and RE8 good games? Yes, it's not remotely comparable to the SE situation because RE fans have never gone through the same scenario as SE fans for such a prolonged period of time. To highlight the point REV1 averaged 82% following RE6 (60%) for comparison XIII hit 83 average following FFXII (92), REV2 dipped to 75% although it was due to the episodic approach while XIII-2 dropped again to 79%, RE7 then went back up to 86% while XIII-3 dipped again to 69%, REmake 2 hits 91% while XV hits 77%, see the difference as even RE5 hit an 84% average Capcom fans weren't more forgiving by any stretch RE was just more consistent with even REmake 3, Village and RE4R hitting 80, 84 and 91 averages.

SE never fixed XIV before it got out of hand the game crashed at launched and required a full redevelopment it was out of hand upon arrival FFXIV launched in 2010 originally the redeveloped version released in 2013 it had to have another 3 years in development all the while the original disastrous version was online with no subscription fee because it had practically no content, it effectively was a monument to SE's botched handling of FF. The end product of the redevelopment is good yes but the handling of the whole situation was damaging to SE and FF's reputation and we see that in sales of the series going forward for example No Mans Sky fixed it's own problems and became a good product that doesn't override the context of a disastrous launch contributing to reputational damage, XIV's revival is often used as a smokescreen for the troubles FF has faced.

SE is reliant on FF by their own doing hence my point about management and leadership SE has the most amount of relevant IPs in the JRPG space, Star Ocean, Parasite Eve, Mana series etc... It's only because of Taro and Horii that Nier and DQ are pushed as well as they are, SE actively reduced it's footprint to heavily centre around FF only to handle it in a damaging way for over 15 years and what's worse is FF selling as much as RE now would still not be growth because that was their normal selling target before that puts the whole situation into perspective. It's ironic you brought up Capcom because they effectively did everything SE slipped up trying to do, created their own in house engine to use going forward, pushed more of their IPs and remained consistent.



JRPGfan said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

This is the correct answer. FF didn't use to sell because it was turn based, this is nonsense. Turn based JRPGs always sold poorly. In reality Final Fantasy was a game that was always sold to non-JRPG fans as well, so being turn based or not was never the point 

Final Fantasy were among the best selling game because they were technical showcases of hardware capabilities and overall among the best games of their generations.  

This is just not the case anymore. Nobody looks at Final Fantasy and think "This is the current pinnacle of gaming", there are other IPs that steal this spot now

If FF go turn based again it will sell at best in ~5 million range, because this is how much a turn based JRPG sells. Persona 5 needed a re-release and be multi platform including Switch and PC to get over 5 million (the 7.2 million figure includes Strikers sales)

And goes without saying Persona 5 is by far the best received JRPG last generation

That's said there is an audience for turn based Final Fantasy. Maybe Square should release turn based spin offs, that way they could satisfy the older fandom 

Persona 5 games went over 10m copies sold back in 2023, around September.
(yes, ~2,5m of that was probably Strikers, a fighting spin off....)

However a year lateron? I think its safe to assume, that Persona 5 (with its re-release) went over 10m.
You can make a Turn based game sell well.
Hell Pokemon is turn based, right? that thing sells like crazy.

Then it was 7 million not counting Strikers and other spin offs (I misunderstood the numbers thinking 7 million included Strikers and other spin offs). In any case it still a game released multiple times across multiple platforms with an enhanced version and still the best JRPG last gen 

This is a similar situation with DQ VII, which sold 7 million with multiple versions and re releases, including a completely different game in the 3DS version 

In any case, this still show thet if they want AAA numbers they can't go back to turn based, turn based are good for spin offs maybe, but I think Square wants Final Fantasy to sell in the 10 million range if this is the case I don't think being turn based would increase the IP sales that much (if at all) 

Pokemon is selling despite being turn based, not the opposite. I dare say Pokemon gameplay combat is kinda meaningless really, it sells because people like to collect pokemons and explore the world, as long those gameplay mechanics persist Pokemon can change from turn based to action and will still selling the same. We can see this when look at Arceus sales, its an spin off with nothing done to extend its legs and sold pretty insane numbers (over 15 million, is withing the range of Pokemon's remakes) and even got a sequel. I would not be surprised if Gamefreak just changed the gameplay combat for the mainline series eventually



IcaroRibeiro said:

Then it was 7 million not counting Strikers and other spin offs (I misunderstood the numbers thinking 7 million included Strikers and other spin offs). In any case it still a game released multiple times across multiple platforms with an enhanced version and still the best JRPG last gen 

This is a similar situation with DQ VII, which sold 7 million with multiple versions and re releases, including a completely different game in the 3DS version 

In any case, this still show thet if they want AAA numbers they can't go back to turn based, turn based are good for spin offs maybe, but I think Square wants Final Fantasy to sell in the 10 million range if this is the case I don't think being turn based would increase the IP sales that much (if at all) 

Pokemon is selling despite being turn based, not the opposite. I dare say Pokemon gameplay combat is kinda meaningless really, it sells because people like to collect pokemons and explore the world, as long those gameplay mechanics persist Pokemon can change from turn based to action and will still selling the same. We can see this when look at Arceus sales, its an spin off with nothing done to extend its legs and sold pretty insane numbers (over 15 million, is withing the range of Pokemon's remakes) and even got a sequel. I would not be surprised if Gamefreak just changed the gameplay combat for the mainline series eventually

Yeah tbh I agree a series can change as long as it's handled well and retains a core identity, Pokemon is a good example because even with some older fans not liking newer games the series is on an upward trajectory. Zelda even massively reduced the relevance of dungeons/temples which is a massive change to it's core approach but the actual draw of the series, the adventure, is still there honestly Rebirth was perfectly fine they just need to be consistent now take what they did with rebirth and use it as a foundation going forward and market well.

I do however think they should drop the numbers in the naming and just give the games titles instead.



Wyrdness said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Then it was 7 million not counting Strikers and other spin offs (I misunderstood the numbers thinking 7 million included Strikers and other spin offs). In any case it still a game released multiple times across multiple platforms with an enhanced version and still the best JRPG last gen 

This is a similar situation with DQ VII, which sold 7 million with multiple versions and re releases, including a completely different game in the 3DS version 

In any case, this still show thet if they want AAA numbers they can't go back to turn based, turn based are good for spin offs maybe, but I think Square wants Final Fantasy to sell in the 10 million range if this is the case I don't think being turn based would increase the IP sales that much (if at all) 

Pokemon is selling despite being turn based, not the opposite. I dare say Pokemon gameplay combat is kinda meaningless really, it sells because people like to collect pokemons and explore the world, as long those gameplay mechanics persist Pokemon can change from turn based to action and will still selling the same. We can see this when look at Arceus sales, its an spin off with nothing done to extend its legs and sold pretty insane numbers (over 15 million, is withing the range of Pokemon's remakes) and even got a sequel. I would not be surprised if Gamefreak just changed the gameplay combat for the mainline series eventually

Yeah tbh I agree a series can change as long as it's handled well and retains a core identity, Pokemon is a good example because even with some older fans not liking newer games the series is on an upward trajectory. Zelda even massively reduced the relevance of dungeons/temples which is a massive change to it's core approach but the actual draw of the series, the adventure, is still there honestly Rebirth was perfectly fine they just need to be consistent now take what they did with rebirth and use it as a foundation going forward and market well.

I do however think they should drop the numbers in the naming and just give the games titles instead.

I don't think Zelda is a good exemple because BOTW is bigger than any other Zeldas in many orders of magnitude, to a point even if 100% of the original Zelda fandom dropped the Zelda BOTW would still be the best selling Zelda by far due to new founded audience. Many of BOTW fans are indeed, BOTW fans not exactly Zelda fans 

It's similar to Monster Hunter, we can see a number long term fans getting annoyed because the games are becoming too streamlined and easy, but the new audiences make up for any angry older fandom by a large margin 

At this point I guess Square is more than desperate to find a new audience for FF. In Japan FF fandom is basically boomers at this point, in west the audience is a bit younger but still increasingly older

I think XV and XIV somehow succeed to capture their own audiences unrelated to older fans (the first being open world, the second being a MMO) but the problem lies on the fact they liked the game, but with a franchise fractured that changes every entry new audiences have trouble to keep following releases. I'll give you an anecdotal exemple:

My BF liked Final Fantasy XV because it was open world (kinda) and he liked the modern-world fantasy with a party of jocks to mess around, found the story to be pretty bad and the second half the game was a mess

He liked VII Remake because of the ATB system world-building and story, but disliked the linearity and the side missions. Still haven't played Rebirth 

He has no desire to play XVI because it's too action oriented, linear and doesn't have a party, but he likes the dark Fantasy setting when saw me playing 



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IcaroRibeiro said:

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I'd say BOTW fans are Zelda fans even if many are new fans, BOTW was successful in creating a new foundation that allowed for growth while retaining the core identity because when you look down at the basics BOTW is spiritually a modern remake/take of LOZ the first game, you're dropped into a world and have to figure things out, it was this sense of adventure that was the series identity. MH also pulled off the same achievement as both the teams behind the series realized that an identity for a franchise can't be a static thing otherwise the won't be any growth only a decline.

SE are right to try and bring in new fans but the problem is like you mention is that their execution has resulted in each game having it's own identity rather than a series one for better or worse, BOTW for all the changes still has core aspects of its identity as does MH it's just that some of these aspects are less of the main focus as before. FF can be fine with out changes Rebirth is one of the best modern rpgs along with the likes of Xenoblade they just need a foundational identity which remains consistent but accommodates change and tbh Rebirth already provides them with a template for that so now it's just down the series handling on SE's part.

I don't even think XVI deserves the trashing it gets online tbh it's just unfortunate to come after the chaos of the XV decade, I do acknowledge the action lite gameplay was a misstep because if you're going to go that route may as well go all in I mean Nier:Automata is one of the best ARPGs ever made may as well bring in the same team to do your combat again.



FF should go back to turn based and scale down a bit on “production values”. FF does not need to look like an AAA industry standard game.

That FF7 remake for mobile devices is way more appealing to me than the official remake. Too bad it is a mobile gotcha game.



That's pretty rough if those are the numbers.

I think they need to do their best to try and gain more traction on the Switch 2 platform within the Nintendo audience and see if they can make inroads on the PC side. They've caused a lot of damage to the brand.

The days of them having top of the industry production value probably is over, you can't maintain that while having sales this low, this is lower than like a Kirby game and some people were saying they need to go even higher with the graphics and budget, lol.



Soundwave said:

That's pretty rough if those are the numbers.

I think they need to do their best to try and gain more traction on the Switch 2 platform within the Nintendo audience and see if they can make inroads on the PC side. They've caused a lot of damage to the brand.

The days of them having top of the industry production value probably is over, you can't maintain that while having sales this low, this is lower than like a Kirby game and some people were saying they need to go even higher with the graphics and budget, lol.

The problem is them chasing additional consumers, and new audiences (modern audience).... at the cost of their old fan base.
They are doing what your saying, and if their strategy is to keep doing what they have been doing, they will do what your suggesting.

Basically they have thrown away large amounts of their old fan base on the PS side, by changing their games into Action games.
Why? probably because of stuff like Dark Souls being so successfull, someone at SE was like "why don't we make a action game instead?".
This is the result... People buy Final Fantasy games for other reasons, than People that buy Dark Souls and Action games like Bayonetta do.

The production value is more than fine on FF games.

What they need is a change in direction,
and a willingness to go back to what made them great in the first place.



JRPGfan said:
Soundwave said:

That's pretty rough if those are the numbers.

I think they need to do their best to try and gain more traction on the Switch 2 platform within the Nintendo audience and see if they can make inroads on the PC side. They've caused a lot of damage to the brand.

The days of them having top of the industry production value probably is over, you can't maintain that while having sales this low, this is lower than like a Kirby game and some people were saying they need to go even higher with the graphics and budget, lol.

The problem is them chasing additional consumers, and new audiences (modern audience).... at the cost of their old fan base.
They are doing what your saying, and if their strategy is to keep doing what they have been doing, they will do what your suggesting.

Basically they have thrown away large amounts of their old fan base on the PS side, by changing their games into Action games.
Why? probably because of stuff like Dark Souls being so successfull, someone at SE was like "why don't we make a action game instead?".
This is the result... People buy Final Fantasy games for other reasons, than People that buy Dark Souls and Action games like Bayonetta do.

The production value is more than fine on FF games.

What they need is a change in direction,
and a willingness to go back to what made them great in the first place.

Playing VII Rebirth I do think they can probably shave off 1/4th of their cost with a more focused story and less cutscenes. So not toning down the production value (i.e character models/environment etc), just being more select with how they use the budget. Like I literally started to get impatient with how drawn out everything was which is a far cry from the Golden Age where cutscenes were a magical highlight that were used just when they needed to be and had great impact.