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Forums - Sales Discussion - Monster Hunter Wilds is around the corner. Let's predict first week sales!

firebush03 said:

100k

Lol. The "beta" tests which were likely just network tests had over 600k on steam alone. 



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Kyuu said:
Qwark said:

I will go 5 to 6 million mostly due to Japan and the lacking that wow factor that World had. Wild was a massive change for the series when it came to graphics and scope. Wild however looks pretty damn poor for a PS5 game. Also the game does not release on Switch, where it would most likely have sold over 2 million in Japan alone.

World opened with 2 million copies sold in Japan on PS4 alone. How far behind that do you expect Wilds will sell on PS5 and PC combined?

I wouldn't read too much into MediaCreate/Famitsu's numbers without taking into account PS digital and PC. Street Fighter 6 had an abysmal opening and disappeared from the physical charts quickly, and yet we know it passed a million.

Edit: I keep forgetting about Xbox. It should add some 50k+ lol. World didn't launch on Xbox in Japan.

Is it releasing on Xbox? Non gamepass? Xboxians are starved for a game like this, it's co-op and MP focused so it's a perfect Xbox costumer game. I guess this is where we find out how strong Xbox is right now and Indiana Jones could have been just a title that didn't aim for the core xbox players. 1 million Xbox, is that possible or are they just gamepass gamers now or have already migrated to Sony, I thought Doom would be the test but we should see what's going on under that roof now if Capcom breaks down the sales for us 🤔 



Kyuu said:
Qwark said:

I will go 5 to 6 million mostly due to Japan and the lacking that wow factor that World had. Wild was a massive change for the series when it came to graphics and scope. Wild however looks pretty damn poor for a PS5 game. Also the game does not release on Switch, where it would most likely have sold over 2 million in Japan alone.

World opened with 2 million copies sold in Japan on PS4 alone. How far behind that do you expect Wilds will sell on PS5 and PC combined?

I wouldn't read too much into MediaCreate/Famitsu's numbers without taking into account PS digital and PC. Street Fighter 6 had an abysmal opening and disappeared from the physical charts quickly, and yet we know it passed a million.

Edit: I keep forgetting about Xbox. It should add some 50k+ lol. World didn't launch on Xbox in Japan.

The best selling PS5 game in Japan as of yet is FF XVI that probably sold around 700k digital and physical sales included. I could see MH Wilds doubling that number on PS5, but it depends on how many Japanese will buy the game on PC instead of on PS5. But there is no chance that Wilds match World sales on PS in Japan, PC will need to do the lifting to get Wilds competitive with World in Japan.

But to be fair to Capcom, they have long since stopped caring about the Japanese market, they are all in on other regions now. Resident Evil sells next to nothing what it used to do in Japan and are instead expanding in other countries.



LegitHyperbole said:
Kyuu said:

World opened with 2 million copies sold in Japan on PS4 alone. How far behind that do you expect Wilds will sell on PS5 and PC combined?

I wouldn't read too much into MediaCreate/Famitsu's numbers without taking into account PS digital and PC. Street Fighter 6 had an abysmal opening and disappeared from the physical charts quickly, and yet we know it passed a million.

Edit: I keep forgetting about Xbox. It should add some 50k+ lol. World didn't launch on Xbox in Japan.

Is it releasing on Xbox? Non gamepass? Xboxians are starved for a game like this, it's co-op and MP focused so it's a perfect Xbox costumer game. I guess this is where we find out how strong Xbox is right now and Indiana Jones could have been just a title that didn't aim for the core xbox players. 1 million Xbox, is that possible or are they just gamepass gamers now or have already migrated to Sony, I thought Doom would be the test but we should see what's going on under that roof now if Capcom breaks down the sales for us 🤔 

World sold about 4 million on Xbox One worldwide so it should be easy for Wilds to pass a quarter of that. Unfortunately, Capcom doesn't do a platform breakdown for individual games. We got a leak for World at the time it shipped 16~ million which showed PS4 version comfortably selling the most (due to Japan), and Xbox being a very distant 3rd and nearly irrelevant for Iceborne.

Sephiran said:
Kyuu said:

World opened with 2 million copies sold in Japan on PS4 alone. How far behind that do you expect Wilds will sell on PS5 and PC combined?

I wouldn't read too much into MediaCreate/Famitsu's numbers without taking into account PS digital and PC. Street Fighter 6 had an abysmal opening and disappeared from the physical charts quickly, and yet we know it passed a million.

Edit: I keep forgetting about Xbox. It should add some 50k+ lol. World didn't launch on Xbox in Japan.

The best selling PS5 game in Japan as of yet is FF XVI that probably sold around 700k digital and physical sales included. I could see MH Wilds doubling that number on PS5, but it depends on how many Japanese will buy the game on PC instead of on PS5. But there is no chance that Wilds match World sales on PS in Japan, PC will need to do the lifting to get Wilds competitive with World in Japan.

But to be fair to Capcom, they have long since stopped caring about the Japanese market, they are all in on other regions now. Resident Evil sells next to nothing what it used to do in Japan and are instead expanding in other countries.

PC will cannibalize sales like the PS4 version of Dragon Quest XI cannibalized the 3DS version (and yet both versions combined couldn't come close to DQIX DS numbers, and the same can happen with Wilds vs World). We rarely get any Japanese digital numbers or splits for anything. Last we got them was Earth Defense Force 6 and Ys X, neither game had a PC version. Ys X had very strong digital legs on Playstation, probably because retailers didn't restock enough. Famitsu/MediaCreate's figures are misleading.



Kyuu said:
LegitHyperbole said:

Is it releasing on Xbox? Non gamepass? Xboxians are starved for a game like this, it's co-op and MP focused so it's a perfect Xbox costumer game. I guess this is where we find out how strong Xbox is right now and Indiana Jones could have been just a title that didn't aim for the core xbox players. 1 million Xbox, is that possible or are they just gamepass gamers now or have already migrated to Sony, I thought Doom would be the test but we should see what's going on under that roof now if Capcom breaks down the sales for us 🤔 

World sold about 4 million on Xbox One worldwide so it should be easy for Wilds to pass a quarter of that. Unfortunately, Capcom doesn't do a platform breakdown for individual games. We got a leak for World at the time it shipped 16~ million which showed PS4 version comfortably selling the most (due to Japan), and Xbox being a very distant 3rd and nearly irrelevant for Iceborne.

Sephiran said:

The best selling PS5 game in Japan as of yet is FF XVI that probably sold around 700k digital and physical sales included. I could see MH Wilds doubling that number on PS5, but it depends on how many Japanese will buy the game on PC instead of on PS5. But there is no chance that Wilds match World sales on PS in Japan, PC will need to do the lifting to get Wilds competitive with World in Japan.

But to be fair to Capcom, they have long since stopped caring about the Japanese market, they are all in on other regions now. Resident Evil sells next to nothing what it used to do in Japan and are instead expanding in other countries.

PC will cannibalize sales like the PS4 version of Dragon Quest XI cannibalized the 3DS version (and yet both versions combined couldn't come close to DQIX DS numbers, and the same can happen with Wilds vs World). We rarely get any Japanese digital numbers or splits for anything. Last we got them was Earth Defense Force 6 and Ys X, neither game had a PC version. Ys X had very strong digital legs on Playstation, probably because retailers didn't restock enough. Famitsu/MediaCreate's figures are misleading.

Hopefully we'll get that again for Sony and be able to see what was left on Xbox. So there's a chance Xbox will sell a million at least. Gotta wonder why only tens of thousands went in on Indiana Jones even though it was on game pass. 



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I don't think Xbox has any software selling numbers of importance ever since gamepass was introduced. I would guess the best selling games on Xbox are doing Fire Emblem numbers at most these days.



firebush03 said:

100k

lowering this down to 25k. (to be serious: 4-5mil. Not being on NSW & with PS5 having such an aggressive barrier to entry (with its price tag in JP), it’ll solely lie upon PC users to carry this game. This is very different from the 2021 entry, which had PS4 & NSW alongside PC, Xbox, and PS5.)

Last edited by firebush03 - on 28 February 2025

5.6M



firebush03 said:
firebush03 said:

100k

lowering this down to 25k. (to be serious: 4-5mil. Not being on NSW & with PS5 having such an aggressive barrier to entry (with its price tag in JP), it’ll solely lie upon PC users to carry this game. This is very different from the 2021 entry, which had PS4 & NSW alongside PC, Xbox, and PS5.)

I'd be shocked if this opens lower than 6 million. Word of mouth is not looking great so far but this should have more impact on short-mid term legs than week 1 sales.



8m.units sold in its first three days making it the fastest selling Capcom game to date.

https://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/news/html/250304.html