Easy. Fire Emblem full, high budget release. Zelda with OoT formula. Mario Galaxy 3 and a new Mario Kart with more involved gameplay similar to CTR. I'm not gonna buy the Switch 2, I bought two Switches and when the first one went to waste I gave it away, missed the indies I had on it so I bought a Switch Lite and it still is picking up dust. I think many are in the same boat as me, many people bought Switches, multiple and the Switch 2 isn't going to sell that well. I'd be surprised if it beat Xboc one sales.

There's more chance to see it surpass Xbox One LT sales in less than 3-4 years than not even surpassing it during it's lifetime.

1 - Plenty of Stocks

2 - They need to contract Hitmans to send to Scalpers house

3- Mario Kart 9 and Mother 3

This presentation on April 2 needs to be exciting.  Getting the launch year right is extremely important, and part of that is building anticipation.  They need to show off what's going to happen in the next 12 months on April 2, and this is what they need to have:

1) Mario Kart 9 at launch.  They need to have 2 other smaller first party titles at launch like a Kirby game and Clubhouse games.  Mario Kart 9 is the main draw, but there is also other content too.  They need several third party titles at launch day, but they can be indies or other small titles like Bomberman.

2) They only need a couple of other guaranteed heavy hitters for the first year, but they should have a lot of smaller/medium sized titles.  A new 3D Mario and Pokemon Z-A would be enough big titles for 2025 along with Mario Kart 9 and a cross gen Metroid Prime 4.  But for smaller budget titles, there should be a couple old favorites like a new Donkey Kong Country, and several brand new IP like a new strategy game from Intelligent Systems, a new RPG from Monolith Soft, etc....

3) Obviously they need to have as much third party content as they can, but they should go out of their way to build certain types of relationships with Third Party publishers and developers.  First, all of the major Japanese Third Party publishers should have their highest budget games on Switch 2: Elden Ring, Final Fanasy 7 Remake/Rebirth and the latest Yakuza and Resident Evil games.  Show people that Switch 2 will be running big third party games, but realize that it is easier for Nintendo to get a solid commitment from Japanese publishers than Western ones.  (Western devs can put their games on the system too, but Nintendo needs to go out of their way to get the Japanese games.)  Second, they need to outsource their IP to indie devs to make games.  Think Cadence of Hyrule, but they need to have several games like this in the first 12 months: a Donkey Kong indie spinoff, a Metroid indie spinoff, a Starfox indie spinoff, etc....  Basically show that Switch 2 is both going to have big budget AAA content and new innovative content.

4) Have lots of stock available and favor extra stock to brick and mortar retailers over online ones.  It is easier for scalpers to horde systems from online stores than it is from physical ones.

1. Metroid Prime 4: Beyond as a Launch title - Having a long-awaited, long-delayed game available day one on next gen hardware is a must. Breath of the Wild sold people on the Switch being a home console on the go, and Prime 4 will sell people on Switch 2 being a better, more refined and advanced Switch.

2. Introduce games that show off the new console and the new Joy-Con - Let's be honest, developers aren't going to utilize any of Nintendo's gimmicks until Nintendo themselves sets an example. So whatever the pack-in/tech-demo game is for the new Joy-Con controllers, it needs to demonstrate plain an clear the unique new features of the hardware in a creative, simple, and practical manner.

3. Some big third party announcements - If you want to convince people third parties are on board, then there needs to be some big third party game announcements in the April Direct, as well as some key releases from third parties in the first year. It can't just be some jerk-off in a suit going on camera saying "we'll bring games to it... Maybe..." like the Switch 1 reveal. How about letting Sega show that new Jet Set Radio game coming. Let Square Enix confirm a new Dragon Quest or Bravely game. Finally confirm that Call of Duty is coming back to Nintendo.

4. A killer Fall slate - Part of the reason the Switch did so well in its first year was its steady stream of big releases culminating in a big Fall release. So the Fall lineup in the launch year needs something big (Mario Kart 9 maybe), as well as some surprises (New IP perhaps).

Nintendo already has the winning formula.
(if it ain't broke, don't fix it) (its just a better switch, with a normal name, Switch 2)

Launch early into the year (april-june), so you don't ruin your 1st holiday sales by stock issues.
Early adopters will get it anyways, anytime of year, and there are enough of them to give stock issues come holidays on top of everyone else.
So launching as they do pays off big time.

Keep its price reasonable, and make sure your production is on a roll (enough stock).
3D Mario is what carries Nintendo to a large degree...... (know your audience), so make sure its high quality and ready at launch.

With it being PS4-PS4pro level, I would like to see it get alot of ports, from games that skipped the 1st Switch.
Get the RPGs Nintendo!

Make sure online play and ranking is working and ready for the workload that a new Mario Kart will bring.

I'd take christmas 2025 as a launch date. Bringing a new Wave Race, F Zero, 1080° but of course not at the same time so these games can't cannibalize themselfes. New Eternal Darkness, Smash Bros. No Mario game at launch because it would shadow other releases. Keep the original Switch cross gen till april 2027 to pass it's 10th Bday but Nintendo will do that anyway.

Doubt it. But if ya wanna make a long term bet. It won't surpass it. People have their switches, economy is a disaster which doesn't matter for hardcore gamers but it does for the parents who'd buy a switch as a party device. Let's meet back here in 3 years. 

They might do it in 2 years, imo.
Supposedly they are aiming for about 20m in the first year.

People already had their PS4s yet they still bought PS5s through the economic downturn of the last few years. People continued to buy the Wii through the financial crash of 2008. Video game systems are notoriously resistant to economic turmoil. And the primary audience for Switch isn't "parents buying it as a party device", if it was we wouldn't be seeing single players games like BOTW, TOTK, Mario Odyssey, etc selling at sky high levels.