We'll see! Granted they sold about 750k more units last quarter than I thought they would. I do fully believe sales are gonna pretty much immediately die when the successor comes out. With presumed backwards compatibility and presumed only $50 and $100 more expensive than the hybrid Switch models, there's just no reason to buy the Switch anymore except for people looking for a $200 budget Lite system.

The two hybrid models should fall to essentially zero the moment Switch 2 comes out, and Lite won't sell much either. But it's definitely possible, given that they just had a real strong quarter, that I may be underestimating what the sales from Oct - June (when I expect the successor to launch) will be, so that they might be a million or so ahead of where I think they'll be once sales drop to near zero. In that case I'd update my prediction from like 153.5-155.0 to more like 154.5-156.0.

In terms of actual sales, not shipped, I predict:

150-150.5 end of 2024

Q1 2025 1.5m: 151.5-152.0

Q2 2025 <1m: 152.5-153.0 (successor launching in the last few weeks of the quarter)

After that Lite has small sales and other models are basically dead without a price cut. Maybe 2m more total Switch sales from July 2025 onward. Finish at 154-155m.

lol. I feel like you don't know who you are replying to. "how many times it will take for the Switch to prove you wrong and exceed everyone of your pessimistic sales forecasts" uhh yeah that's not me haha. I've never been someone making pessimistic sales forecasts for the Switch. I'm the person laughing at everyone who said Switch needs to be replaced by 2022 or 2023. Probably since like 2020 I've assumed Switch is gonna hit 150m, which means so far it hasn't exceeded a single one of my "pessimistic" sales forecasts, let alone done it "how many times" lol. And I always assumed the successor would launch between March 2024 and March 2025 (turns out it'll last even a couple months longer than that!). Or maybe you just think anyone who says Switch isn't selling 170m is pessimistic lol.

And if Switch only shipped 4M this holiday season putting shipments at 150m end of the year so sales probably at 149m, beating the DS would be extremely debatable haha, and very unlikely.

As for the Switch games coming out next year, the only one of those that might push hardware is Pokemon, but as the sixth pokemon game on the system it probably won't either.

3DS was still getting games for I believe a couple years after the Switch launched. Switch's last games are likely coming out next Spring just before the successor launches. Because Switch was the WiiU successor, not the 3DS successor, so they kept both systems going for a bit.

If they give Switch a price cut, then absolutely there is no question it'll pass the DS, and it might even get up to the PS2 even it were a big price cut. With no price cut, like I said, the numbers say it'll probably get right up to the DS and perhaps pass it by a little bit, but it'll fall a few million short of the PS2. This last quarters numbers are great, as of the previous quarter even passing DS looked unlikely, but with the strength of the latest quarter it looks like Switch will end up right around the DS.

Either you are confused who you are replying to or you are confusing the terms "pessimistic" and "realistic". With presumably 7-8 months until the successor launches, and Switch sales having been low everywhere outside of Japan for the past year, I see no reason to be either pessimistic nor optimistic, just realistic, as I always am. If you want to be overly optimistic, that's your decision, but don't make silly comments about me haha, that's pointless.

A strong quarter for the Switch since I definitely didn't expect a bit above 2.5m. The revision down for the forecast is expected but with this surprisingly good result 12.5m is certainly more likely than before and it might exceed my expectations of 11m. It'll come down to the next quarter though since even just a 20% decline for it would make reaching it a little tough and there's nothing really notable pushing sales in that period while the Zelda Switch Lite will have helped out some for this quarter. The lack of a Switch 2 announcement till January at the earliest will help lessen the decline for the rest of the fiscal year somewhat though so the next quarter should at worst be decent.

Jim Ryan said 160.

Not at all the same situations. PS2 was insanely cheap compared to the PS3 and much much much more popular. DS was also much cheaper and the 3D feature of the 3DS that set it apart from the DS was a feature most people didn't even want. So no, your "by that logic" sentence is not at all the logic I'm stating.

"I am sorry to contradict you but everything points to first party support till 2026 at least."...literally nothing confirms this though haha. I have no idea what "everything" is when "everything" is literally nothing. What we do know is that a few games are coming out on Switch in the first half of next year. We know nothing about any games coming out past that. I'd venture to guess no first party games will be coming after that, unless they are very small games, or maybe some more ports that they'd release on both Switch and Switch 2, which will do nothing to continue new Switch hardware sales.

We don't know when Prime and Pokemon are coming out. You say these games won't launch before summer and autumn. We literally don't know that. You're just guessing. There is currently no reason to think they won't come out before next gen launches. We'll have to wait and see. I'd say they will at latest be cross-gen launches on the successor launch day.

In terms of Switch being a 10 year system, yeah they are still going to be probably shipping a few thousand Switch units a week in 2026 and 2027 = 10 years. And there will of course be third party stuff coming to the system. Nowhere am I saying it isn't a 10 year system.

Who guarantees there won't be any price cuts? Nobody. I think they absolutely need to cut the price! I think they should've already done it earlier this year. I hope they do! But so far there are no indications that they will, given that they never have after 7.5 years, and haven't even the past year as sales have slowed down drastically. Like I say in my prediction, my prediction is based on them not cutting the price. If they do cut the price I would expect them to pick up a couple million more hardware sales and get up to close to the PS2. Personally I think they should drop the Switch to something like $130/$230/$280, but given their complete lack of hardware and software price cuts this entire gen I don't expect them to drop the price, and if they don't the $300 and $350 model's sales are gonna immediately dry up when a presumably $400 next gen system launches. Only the Lite will be selling at that point if there's no price cuts of minimum $50.

Switch should be able to outsell DS and maybe even PS2 we still have no news of a successor, so granted Switch is around 150 million at January 2025, it most likely still has a good 10 to 15 months (if they go for another March launch) left to sell without a successor.

I would estimate Switch could keep selling 500k a month on average the first 10 months. At that point it's at 155 million. So selling another 5 million is not undoable if it gets one more holiday, especially with a cross gen period. That is also assuming all 160 million produced PS2 where actually sold.

I think you asume that Prime 4 and Pokémon will come before july. There where so many years where we litterally knew nothing and i remember the times when some people thought TOTK would be the Switch's swan song. Man where they wrong, haha. I remember that some people said Pikmin 4 would be the last game on Switch and so on and so on...

I politley ask you sir not to think i would be stupid if i somehow doubt, the Switch would die next year. After a 10 million+ year a system won't die off instantly especially not a handheld like the Switch. Maybe i could be wrong, maybe you could be wrong who knows. But asuming its "absolutly sure" the Switch would die off this quickly when it proved so many of us wrong all the time is a bit thoughtless, don't you think?

Solid numbers for the quarter. I'd say everyone saw a downward revision for hardware coming, because on one hand the initial goal was very high, and on the other hand the sell-through rate for the first two fiscal quarters was not high enough to reach that target; combine that with no new model and no price cut and there you go. Even though, the revised target of 12.5m won't be comfortable to reach either, because Nintendo will have to hit close to 6m in the holiday quarter.