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killer7 on 05 November 2024
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killer7 said:
Slownenberg said:

We'll see! Granted they sold about 750k more units last quarter than I thought they would. I do fully believe sales are gonna pretty much immediately die when the successor comes out. With presumed backwards compatibility and presumed only $50 and $100 more expensive than the hybrid Switch models, there's just no reason to buy the Switch anymore except for people looking for a $200 budget Lite system.

The two hybrid models should fall to essentially zero the moment Switch 2 comes out, and Lite won't sell much either. But it's definitely possible, given that they just had a real strong quarter, that I may be underestimating what the sales from Oct - June (when I expect the successor to launch) will be, so that they might be a million or so ahead of where I think they'll be once sales drop to near zero. In that case I'd update my prediction from like 153.5-155.0 to more like 154.5-156.0.

In terms of actual sales, not shipped, I predict:

150-150.5 end of 2024

Q1 2025 1.5m: 151.5-152.0

Q2 2025

After that Lite has small sales and other models are basically dead without a price cut. Maybe 2m more total Switch sales from July 2025 onward. Finish at 154-155m.

I do not think the Switch will die "as soon as the Switch Up arrives". The DS stayed till 2015 after the 3DS came out despite being backwards compatible. By that logic the PS2 should have died out right after the PS3 launch as well. Tge Switch lite will be a lot cheaper than the Switch Up. I really think you underestimate the current Switch. Nintendo promised a 10 years lifespan, a lifespan longer than previous Nintendo systems. Its like when i say "The PS5 will die when the PS6 comes out!" After Sony already said the PS5 completed its first half of its lifespan at the beginning of this year its even more likley. Especially after the fact PS4 was discontinued just a bit over a year after the PS5 launched. 

I am sorry to contradict you but everything points to first party support till 2026 at least. Metroid Prime 4 Beyond is confirmed as Switch game for 2025 and it won't launch before summer. Pokémon Z-A won't be here before autumn and i highly doubt there won't be at least some cross gen games. The gamecube was discontinued as late as 2008, 1,5 years after te Wii launched and that console was close of being a massive flopp. And if the GAMECUBE could stay for another 1,5 years, i don't see why Switch can't. Who guarantees you there won't be any price cuts?