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Slownenberg on 05 November 2024
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killer7 said:
Slownenberg said:

A surprisingly strong Switch quarter and the new Zelda did very well. I don't know if Zelda helped slow the decline this quarter or what, but very good for Nintendo.

Still, probably going to be a weak final holiday quarter coming up. While Switch I would say is certainly undertracked here on vgchartz by probably a bit over a million, cuz I don't see any reason why there would be an entire quarter's worth of systems shipped but not sold, and despite the very good quarter, with the next gen launch likely 6 months away I see the Switch finishing up right around the DS final numbers. Unless Switch gets a price cut, it's gonna essentially stop selling except for a little bit of Lite sales once next gen starts. PS2 and certainly 160m are out of reach. But there is a decent possibility Switch could just barely pass DS numbers and become Nintendo's best selling system ever at 154.X million or maybe even 155m if these last ports and a couple new games like Pokemon and Metroid Prime can spruce sales a bit this last half year before the successor launches.

It really depends how this quater goes. But i personally do not see less than 155 million LTD. If they horribly fail to meet their FC we would be looking at ~150,3 million by march 25. (9 million). For 2025 i see no less than 4 million putting the Switch barly over the DS' 154,02 million. And i do not see the Switch under 1 million for 2026/27. Discontinuation no earlier than march 2027.

We'll see! Granted they sold about 750k more units last quarter than I thought they would. I do fully believe sales are gonna pretty much immediately die when the successor comes out. With presumed backwards compatibility and presumed only $50 and $100 more expensive than the hybrid Switch models, there's just no reason to buy the Switch anymore except for people looking for a $200 budget Lite system.

The two hybrid models should fall to essentially zero the moment Switch 2 comes out, and Lite won't sell much either. But it's definitely possible, given that they just had a real strong quarter, that I may be underestimating what the sales from Oct - June (when I expect the successor to launch) will be, so that they might be a million or so ahead of where I think they'll be once sales drop to near zero. In that case I'd update my prediction from like 153.5-155.0 to more like 154.5-156.0.

In terms of actual sales, not shipped, I predict:

150-150.5 end of 2024

Q1 2025 1.5m: 151.5-152.0

Q2 2025 <1m: 152.5-153.0 (successor launching in the last few weeks of the quarter)

After that Lite has small sales and other models are basically dead without a price cut. Maybe 2m more total Switch sales from July 2025 onward. Finish at 154-155m.