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javi741 on 05 November 2024
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Slownenberg said:

A surprisingly strong Switch quarter and the new Zelda did very well. I don't know if Zelda helped slow the decline this quarter or what, but very good for Nintendo.

Still, probably going to be a weak final holiday quarter coming up. While Switch I would say is certainly undertracked here on vgchartz by probably a bit over a million, cuz I don't see any reason why there would be an entire quarter's worth of systems shipped but not sold, and despite the very good quarter, with the next gen launch likely 6 months away I see the Switch finishing up right around the DS final numbers. Unless Switch gets a price cut, it's gonna essentially stop selling except for a little bit of Lite sales once next gen starts. PS2 and certainly 160m are out of reach. But there is a decent possibility Switch could just barely pass DS numbers and become Nintendo's best selling system ever at 154.X million or maybe even 155m if these last ports and a couple new games like Pokemon and Metroid Prime can spruce sales a bit this last half year before the successor launches.

I don't know how many times it will take for the Switch to prove you wrong and exceed everyone of your pessimistic sales forecasts before you realize that the Switch could outsell anything. At this point the Switch outselling the DS shouldn't be a debate, it's 100% going to outsell it with the pace it's going at. Even if Nintendo has a low end 4M holiday season, that'll put the Switch at 150M by December 2024. Let's say Switch 2 releases Spring 2025, the Switch 1 will still be getting games like Donkey Kong Country, Metroid Prime 4, Xenoblade X, Pokemon Legends, ect.... Even when DS sales fell off a cliff after the 3DS launch, the DS was still able to sell another 5 Million after the 3DS price cut. But Switch will have the advantage of getting more game releases than the DS and a price difference more significant than the DS to 3DS compared to Switch & Switch 2, it's also unlikely Switch 2 will launch before April 2025, so Switch at minimum could easily be at 151.5 Million by March 2025, somehow falling short of 2.5 Million after that is impossible. It's absolutely impossible the Switch falls short of the DS.

And after the Switch proving every sales prediction wrong for years now, it's silly to completely say it has no chance of outselling the PS2 especially when we have no idea when the Switch 2 releases. At this point it's looking like the Switch will be around the ballpark of PS2 sales.