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Slownenberg on 05 November 2024
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javi741 said:
Slownenberg said:

A surprisingly strong Switch quarter and the new Zelda did very well. I don't know if Zelda helped slow the decline this quarter or what, but very good for Nintendo.

Still, probably going to be a weak final holiday quarter coming up. While Switch I would say is certainly undertracked here on vgchartz by probably a bit over a million, cuz I don't see any reason why there would be an entire quarter's worth of systems shipped but not sold, and despite the very good quarter, with the next gen launch likely 6 months away I see the Switch finishing up right around the DS final numbers. Unless Switch gets a price cut, it's gonna essentially stop selling except for a little bit of Lite sales once next gen starts. PS2 and certainly 160m are out of reach. But there is a decent possibility Switch could just barely pass DS numbers and become Nintendo's best selling system ever at 154.X million or maybe even 155m if these last ports and a couple new games like Pokemon and Metroid Prime can spruce sales a bit this last half year before the successor launches.

I don't know how many times it will take for the Switch to prove you wrong and exceed everyone of your pessimistic sales forecasts before you realize that the Switch could outsell anything. At this point the Switch outselling the DS shouldn't be a debate, it's 100% going to outsell it with the pace it's going at. Even if Nintendo has a low end 4M holiday season, that'll put the Switch at 150M by December 2024. Let's say Switch 2 releases Spring 2025, the Switch 1 will still be getting games like Donkey Kong Country, Metroid Prime 4, Xenoblade X, Pokemon Legends, ect.... Even when DS sales fell off a cliff after the 3DS launch, the DS was still able to sell another 5 Million after the 3DS price cut. But Switch will have the advantage of getting more game releases than the DS and a price difference more significant than the DS to 3DS compared to Switch & Switch 2, it's also unlikely Switch 2 will launch before April 2025, so Switch at minimum could easily be at 151.5 Million by March 2025, somehow falling short of 2.5 Million after that is impossible. It's absolutely impossible the Switch falls short of the DS.

And after the Switch proving every sales prediction wrong for years now, it's silly to completely say it has no chance of outselling the PS2 especially when we have no idea when the Switch 2 releases. At this point it's looking like the Switch will be around the ballpark of PS2 sales.

lol. I feel like you don't know who you are replying to. "how many times it will take for the Switch to prove you wrong and exceed everyone of your pessimistic sales forecasts" uhh yeah that's not me haha. I've never been someone making pessimistic sales forecasts for the Switch. I'm the person laughing at everyone who said Switch needs to be replaced by 2022 or 2023. Probably since like 2020 I've assumed Switch is gonna hit 150m, which means so far it hasn't exceeded a single one of my "pessimistic" sales forecasts, let alone done it "how many times" lol. And I always assumed the successor would launch between March 2024 and March 2025 (turns out it'll last even a couple months longer than that!). Or maybe you just think anyone who says Switch isn't selling 170m is pessimistic lol.

And if Switch only shipped 4M this holiday season putting shipments at 150m end of the year so sales probably at 149m, beating the DS would be extremely debatable haha, and very unlikely.

As for the Switch games coming out next year, the only one of those that might push hardware is Pokemon, but as the sixth pokemon game on the system it probably won't either.

3DS was still getting games for I believe a couple years after the Switch launched. Switch's last games are likely coming out next Spring just before the successor launches. Because Switch was the WiiU successor, not the 3DS successor, so they kept both systems going for a bit.

If they give Switch a price cut, then absolutely there is no question it'll pass the DS, and it might even get up to the PS2 even it were a big price cut. With no price cut, like I said, the numbers say it'll probably get right up to the DS and perhaps pass it by a little bit, but it'll fall a few million short of the PS2. This last quarters numbers are great, as of the previous quarter even passing DS looked unlikely, but with the strength of the latest quarter it looks like Switch will end up right around the DS.

Either you are confused who you are replying to or you are confusing the terms "pessimistic" and "realistic". With presumably 7-8 months until the successor launches, and Switch sales having been low everywhere outside of Japan for the past year, I see no reason to be either pessimistic nor optimistic, just realistic, as I always am. If you want to be overly optimistic, that's your decision, but don't make silly comments about me haha, that's pointless.