The Switch since 2017

How are these sales possible?!?! I think it's almost official, the best selling console of all time in Japan!

Top 30 software now posted.

I feel like the Switch still has a lot of life left in it in Japan, but if Nintendo is transitioning dev to the new Switch the sales will eventually fall. But for now the sales are strong and there is still sales potential. Hard to juggle!

When you consider that PS4 is still getting 3rd party Japanese titles, with an install base of 9.5M, the Switch is going to be getting third party titles for a long time.  And with a continual stream of software, it's going to take a while before Switch hardware sales disappear completely.

It's kind of incredible to think the Switch will *officially* beat the sell to consumer records while also improving on it by quite the marging when all is said and done.
Like we're maybe speaking of a final tally of 35M+ sold.

What's more, it was said in the past that the record of the DS would be for eternity due Japans aging and shrinking population, and smartphones displacing handhelds. And yet, here we are...

This is definitely the optimist in me, but I can see the Switch in Japan shipping 38.08M. And eventually will sell that total over the course of at least half the of the successor's life.

It only needs to sell 4.74 according to the Shipment number we got from the Dec Nintendo Q3 update of 33.34M shipped.

This year in Japan looks to be on track to surpass 2.9M sold. For now I will use sold units from Dec 31, 2023 to make the math easier, 31.84M. So, by guestimation the Switch will reach At least 34.74M by Dec 31, 2024 if the 2.9M come to fruition.

Personally, with how well the Switch is selling, and by viewing ShadowLink93's post in this thread on page 1, I think the Switch can easily surpass 2.9M. If the Switch manages to sell an average of 90k during the holiday month season, then the Switch only needs to sell an average of 51,353 units per week from Week 15-Week 48 in order to reach 2.9M. 51.4k seems rather weak for Switch 8th year. I think Switch can easily get to 57-65k per week from week 15 to week 48. With these predictions the Switch should make 3.09M by Dec 31, 2024 (.794 + .36 + 1.938 using 57K as the minimum of the 34 week span).
31.84M Dec 2023 to 34.93M Dec 2024. Shipped units > Sold Units so the Switch shipment should be above 35M by Dec 2024 (Probably 35.43, as they ramp down excess shipments in preparation for the successor in March 2025). Switch will continue to sell throughout the successor's life and should gain 2.65 in a span of 3-4 years.

38.08M is achievable, if the right cards are in play.

Switch's longevity in hardware sales at this point comes down to how quickly Nintendo choose to phase it out.
If they really wanted to keep it around, I can see it still moving meaningful numbers for years to come. It's reached the point where it's evergreen catalogue is so strong that it just keeps going and going even without major releases.

I suspect though that when the time does finally come for its replacement, it will probably be put out to pasture relatively quickly like DS and PS4.

There's a world of a difference between getting 3rd party japanese titles and getting 1st party Nintendo games, as you can see in the top 30. I wish you were right but highly doubt it will have a significant longevity.