Switch selling 6.9 million in it's 28th quarter is crazy compared to what the PS4, Wii and DS were selling at the same time.

Bofferbrauer2 said: ShadowLink93 said: Top 100 Nintendo Published Games Pokemon Stadium has been knocked out the top 100 by Super Mario Bros. Wonder which enters at #55. Now the big question is: Can MK8DX have the legs (wheels?) to kick Wii Sports from the throne? Also, I remember getting laughted off for thinking RFA could sell anywhere near Wii Fit, with most expecting maybe 3M tops. While still 5M short of Wii Fit, it came still much further than anyone dared to hope it would reach

First, I want you to know that I, and I think everyone as well, appreciates your charts. They are immaculate.

Second, Wii Sports sold 82.90M units and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sold 60.58M units, MK8D has 22.32M units to go. MK8D was released on April 28, 2017, which was 6 years and 9 months ago (81.5 months ago), that means it has sold around 8.97M units per year (0.74M units per month). I am making an assumption that it will continue to sell something similar to the 8.97M units per year, meaning that it will surpass Wii Sports in around 3 years.
If MK8D brings more DLC, very unlikely, I can see it reaching +82.9M within 2 years. Personally, I dont think it will surpass Wii Sports given the circumstances of the Switch (rumors of a successor, decline in hardware sales, no announcements for DLC, etc).

Third, by the 28th quarter the PS4, Wii and DS already had their successors released. So seeing how well the Switch is selling is a good indication that Nintendo can hold off for one more FY before releasing the successor. I can see the Switch continue to ship until quarter 41.

Fourth, PS5 has the goal to ship 59.4M units by quarter 14, which puts it -2.04M units behind the Switch shipments and -0.8M units behind PS4 shipments. I find it interesting that PS5 hasn't been able to sell in the holiday quarters near the same amount as the PS4 since COVID-19 hit.
PS4: 6.4M, 8.4M, 9.7M 
PS5: 3.9M, 7.1M, 8.2M
Granted, PS5 looks to be trying to catch up and make up for lost time, but given the recent announcement by Sony, it looks like this upcoming FY is going to be low, along with a low Q3. I guess near 7.0M for Q3 for PS5.

So launched aligned, Switch is tracking 25.6m ahead of PS4, holy moly.

PS5 is keeping pace with Switch's trajectory so far, but that could be about to end as it aligns with Switch's peak, and considering reports that production is being reduced and Sony reducing their FY forecast.

The PS5 is not keeping pace. It's just looking close right now because the PS5 has had one more holiday quarter than Switch. Due to the offset launch dates, you get the best comparisons after quarter 4, 8, 12, 16 etc.

During the most recent intervall (quarter 9-12) the PS5 managed to gain a little bit on Switch, but only because the pentup demand for the PS5 had to be fulfilled. Otherwise the PS5 is tracking very similar to the PS4, and the PS4's deficit kept growing during each four-quarter-intervall, hence why through 28 quarters the PS4 is already behind by 25.6m.

Yeah I was only comparing launch aligned sales, it's true that PS5 has an advantage at this point due to the extra holiday. I still think PS5 should sell more than PS4 due to weaker competition from Xbox, but it does seem unlikely it can catch the Switch at this point.

To be frank with the recent commentary done and what was announced to be a lack of "legacy 1st party releases". It does feel like the PS5 is about to undergo a sale trajectory that will lend more so closer or maybe even a bit under the PS4 for the foreseeable future. 

Personally, the fumble early on this gen due to the scarcity of the consoles and the pent up demand following that and increasing early gen FOMO is leading the PS5 to have a skewed vision of it's overall sales during it's earlier lifespan than it should've had normally. 

I actually hardly see a scenario where it outright blows past the PS4 anymore. 

But I digress because this is a thread about Switch sales so yeah. Despite the current sales trajectory, Shadow showed us how great it's sales are considering it's age in relation to other consoles pasts.

Beating the DS lifetime seems almost like a give now.

Beating the DS does look likely at this stage. 

Going forwards, a lot will depend on whether Nintendo actually plan to give the Switch a decent push this year, or whether they'll just let it wither and die with nothing but C-tier releases and the same old price point. Then there's the question of how they will handle it post-replacement; will it be phased out relatively quickly a la PS4, or will they keep it around for a while as a budget option like the 3DS?

PS2 I think is out of reach; another 21 million is a bridge too far this late in the game. Still, reaching #2 of all time is no small feat.

I don't see how you think it's completely out of reach. By no means is it a given I agree, but assuming they keep it around like the 3DS then 21 mil is definitely achievable

Oh I didn't mean it's impossible for it to beat PS2, just unlikely, as I don't think Switch has that much gas left in the tank.

At end of FY2025 (end of March 2025), the Switch will be at 150 mil minimum but could even reach 153 mil. Selling around 10 mil more for the rest of its life seems rather realistic.