The only way I see it touching Xbox Series S is if the dock actually has more to it this time (a chipset, etc.)
I say the console will be about PS4-level, maybe lower at Xbox One-level, and docked it will be around PS4 Pro.
If it's better than a Steam Deck in specs, it probably won't be by a half a gen or something.

PS4 came out with the 28nm process. It's followed by 22/20nm, 16/14nm, 12/10nm, 7/6nm and then 5/4nm. The OG Switch already had one and a half, while the  HAC-001(-01) refresh had 2 node shrinks under it's belt compared to the PS4. The successor of the Switch will have at least 4 full node shrinks compared to the PS4.

However, the closer we get to atomic sizes, the smaller the gains get of he die shrinks (especially for things like IO and cache), so it's not an exact science or very linear.

When it comes to Nintendo tbh I always expect the bare minimum when it comes to specs at this point, Nintendo for the last 2 decades has shown 0 interest in making a powerful console and the Switch being as successful as it is as an underpowered device will only encourage Nintendo to be ok with releasing underpowered hardware, especially since Nintendo likes to make a profit off of each hardware unit sold, which is why I'm expecting it to be around base PS4 level in power despite all the rumors suggesting that it could have close to Series S performance, and I unfortunately think many people will be disappointed with Switch 2's specs cause these rumors are putting expectations way too high right now.

We've also seen many times in the past where rumors always thought Nintendo's next system would be way more powerful than it actually was. I remember there was a rumor that said the 3DS was noticeably more powerful than the Wii and was closer to an Xbox 360/PS3 in specs which ended up being laughably wrong. Rumors said Wii U was a next gen system in specs when it clearly wasn't, I feel like we're going to see the same thing with these Switch 2 rumors where they're all suggesting it could be near Series S performance but will end up being the bare minimum closer to Base PS4 in power.

I'd like to be wrong, a more powerful system with better looking games is always welcomed and a system that'll be able to support for more big current gen 3rd party games would be nice. However, I came to accept the fact that Nintendo does not care about specs and that they'll likely do the bare minimum at this point.

Yeah, I am not optimistic either. However PS4 level hardware, with a few tricks to get similar to ps4 pro performance and some visual effects available in current gen is more than enough for me, just like people pointed out, will be a considerable jump from Switch, so Nintendo software reaching new heights once again.

In regards to multiplat games, imo we have reached the point that 3rd party companies are not willing to sacrifice time and scope to get a considerable difference from last generation performance, so that's why till this day we still see games coming to PS4/X1 and we need to make video comparisons to show THE HUGE discrepancy to current generation. (Heck even 1st party games are no significant than some visual effects)

The only thing that will stop them to making games to last gen is the natural course when current gen reaches its prime and last gen stops being relevant to get some spare sales.

So if the next gen Nintendo follow the same successfull path, it will be hard for 3rd party companies to ignore.

But that's a discussion for another thread

Based on everything we've heard (Tegra T239, Digital Foundry's recent video, the rumored behind closed doors showing at Gamescom), I'd guess it will be somewhere around PS4 in terms of on paper specs (maybe 30% above at most), but far outperform it in practice due to newer architectures and DLSS support and much faster Solid State storage.

For a device that could be used as a handheld, the Switch was actually pretty powerful at it's release. It could run circles and then some around the Vita for instance, and it caused a resurgence of handhelds... on the PC side of all things.

As a pure home console however, it is underpowered compared to the competition. But that's no wonder if you have to limit yourself the less than 15W when the competition can go easily 150W+

By full node I meant quadratic scaling of 70% on feature size, not whatever name these companies' are giving to their product. Logic still shrinks perfectly and has nothing to do with diminishing gains (since smaller logic cells compensate for less scaling in SRAM and I/O) TSMC and Samsung are just not following the old ITRS guidelines.

20 nm is just one node below 28 nm and shares the same pitch as 16/14/12 nm, the only difference is that the latter uses FinFETs. 11/10/8 nm was the next full node below that. So... two nodes.

That's easier to realize by looking at transistor density, which was ~ 1.2 MT/mm2 for 90 nm, ~ 25 MT/mm2 for 20* nm (= 4 and a half doublings), and just ~ 50 MT/mm2 for 8 nm.

I always find this sentiment funny, when people claim Switch is underpowered. It's a handheld system from 2017! lol. It was powerful for a handheld system in 2017. You can't compare it to 2020 consoles or a 2022 enormous sort-of-but-not-really-portable device like the Steam Deck.

Yes the Wii was underpowered cuz they focused on motion controls, and WiiU was underpowered cuz they did the whole bizarre giant gamepad asynchronous multiplayer terrible design decision. Switch is a handheld though, so its going to have much lower specs than a console, which has nothing to do with being underpowered. Why do so many people not understand the difference between a handheld system and a console, nor the power differences between systems that launch years apart. People are funny when they just want to make an argument and don't care about the reasoning haha.

The New 3DS/2DS to Switch was a massive leap, debatably over a gen and a half. If you exclude GBC from the equation, I suppose you could make the argument GB to GBA was a bigger leap. But even that's up for debate.

I never expect Nintendo to play catch-up in-home console specs ever again. Nintendo screwed up the game formats for N64 and GCN (their last up-to par home consoles) and paid the price for it. Nintendo banked big on the Wii's Blue Ocean strategy, and it paid off. Then the Wii U tanked big time. But now Switch is more successful than Wii ever was. 

I think the rumors putting Switch 2 a lot closer to PS5 than PS4 are delusional. There's virtually no chance that's happening. If it somehow does, it would probably mean the dock has architecture in it to the give the console a massive boost for TV play. That seems quite unlikely as well.

It won't be as powerful as an RG Ally but $300 cheaper as well.