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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Microsoft to become largest 3rd party publisher.

Over/under on Starfield getting announced for PS5 this year? It wouldn’t surprise me at all if it happened.



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JRPGfan said:

Honestly it seems all the things he predicted will come to pass, its only a matter of if the timeline he laid out turns out true.
Yet he was laughed at for saying these things only a year ago.

Thanks dude.  I am feeling quite vindicated now, in fact, so much so that I'll once again link my original video from last year that is referenced in my first post:



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

Hardstuck-Platinum said:

How many studios do they have to close before you admit Gamepass or Xbox exclusivity is a problem. Arkane Austin or Tango gameworks clearly isn't enough for you. How about Ninja Theory or Obsidian? HB2 is Releasing in middle of may with no marketing. The steam purchase statistics already look grim,and and before you say "well that's steam, not gamepass", GP has a direct impact on purchases because why buy on steam or Xbox if you can just GP it. Their studios, (with the only exception being BGS, or activsion) are all doomed if they don't get rid of GP current model or Xbox/PC exclusivity.   

A dev on twitter said something to me that made me think.

The more people that use GamePass to access the game, takes away users from the Steam algorithm and makes the game lose visablity on Steam.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

only777 said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

How many studios do they have to close before you admit Gamepass or Xbox exclusivity is a problem. Arkane Austin or Tango gameworks clearly isn't enough for you. How about Ninja Theory or Obsidian? HB2 is Releasing in middle of may with no marketing. The steam purchase statistics already look grim,and and before you say "well that's steam, not gamepass", GP has a direct impact on purchases because why buy on steam or Xbox if you can just GP it. Their studios, (with the only exception being BGS, or activsion) are all doomed if they don't get rid of GP current model or Xbox/PC exclusivity.   

A dev on twitter said something to me that made me think.

The more people that use GamePass to access the game, takes away users from the Steam algorithm and makes the game lose visablity on Steam.

This is how platforms competing for players time typically work. One takes away from another. MS doesn't force studios to release on Game Pass. This is a choice they are making. For the most part, studios are happy with Game Pass results and compensation. 



smroadkill15 said:

 For the most part, studios are happy with Game Pass

That statment doesn't line up with all the reports that have come out.  Like what the Somerville developer said: Source

According to Jim Ryan, who hindsight has been proved utterly correct on this situation, he said that many publishers said it was value distructive: Source

Game Pass even hurts studios not on the service, as we saw just today: Source

Game Pass, like spotify can never turn a profit because of the costs involved.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

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only777 said:
smroadkill15 said:

 For the most part, studios are happy with Game Pass

That statment doesn't line up with all the reports that have come out.  Like what the Somerville developer said: Source

According to Jim Ryan, who hindsight has been proved utterly correct on this situation, he said that many publishers said it was value distructive: Source

Game Pass even hurts studios not on the service, as we saw just today: Source

Game Pass, like spotify can never turn a profit because of the costs involved.

It does though. Most studios using Game Pass are satisfied with the service. I can easily post link after link of devs satisfied. I'm not going to say Game Pass doesn't have its faults because it does, but don't pretend like everyone is dissatisfied just because a handful of devs have voiced their concerns. 

Spotify and Game Pass do not operate the same way. Spotify has to compensate each individual artist, and there are thousands of people who put there content on spotify. Game Pass is much more limited in content. MS has stated they spend 1 billion a year on Game Pass and the service is profitable. Not saying it's pulling in huge profits, but it's still profitable. 



On Spanish-language video game channels right now they are talking about the Xbox change. And the summary is:

"Xbox games" is dead. Now it's "Microsoft xbox". That's why Phil Spencer has had a broken face for more than a year.



only777 said:
smroadkill15 said:

 For the most part, studios are happy with Game Pass

That statment doesn't line up with all the reports that have come out.  Like what the Somerville developer said: Source

According to Jim Ryan, who hindsight has been proved utterly correct on this situation, he said that many publishers said it was value distructive: Source

Game Pass even hurts studios not on the service, as we saw just today: Source

Game Pass, like spotify can never turn a profit because of the costs involved.

No point arguing with him to be honest. 

Lets just look at the current state of HB2 to prove our point. It's currently ranked 218th on steam charts. If he's happy with HB2 being at 218 when Ghosts of tsushima, a 4 year old PS game is currently ranked 8th, then what can we do to convince him otherwise. Ninja theory will be closed down, he'll make up a reason as to why it had nothing to do with Xbox exclusivity or Gamepass and the cycle will repeat until the only studios MS has left is BGS and activision. 



Hmmm.... Thread title prediction is pretty reasonable, the specific dates and events not so much.
Especially with next Xbox console development already leaked.
But I feel like equating that with 3rd party i.e. non-exclusivity is a misnomer.
I think MS may eventually get to fully dropping exclusivity, yet still be selling Xbox consoles.
Obviously the dual console consumers no longer would have a reason for Xbox consoles.
But for the ones never swayed by Sony 1st party games, it doesn´t really change anything.
It´s still a good and familiar place to play games they like, conventionally or thru a GP subscription.
Maybe the GP offering will change, but no reason it can´t exist in some form that´s profitable (even if that looks like PS+).
If one wants to call that ¨3rd Party Box¨, I have no problem with that.
I also kind of doubt the name Xbox will be dropped.
Changing to MS doesn´t really help them for this market, or for potential sale or merger scenarios.



Hardstuck-Platinum said:
only777 said:

That statment doesn't line up with all the reports that have come out.  Like what the Somerville developer said: Source

According to Jim Ryan, who hindsight has been proved utterly correct on this situation, he said that many publishers said it was value distructive: Source

Game Pass even hurts studios not on the service, as we saw just today: Source

Game Pass, like spotify can never turn a profit because of the costs involved.

No point arguing with him to be honest. 

Lets just look at the current state of HB2 to prove our point. It's currently ranked 218th on steam charts. If he's happy with HB2 being at 218 when Ghosts of tsushima, a 4 year old PS game is currently ranked 8th, then what can we do to convince him otherwise. Ninja theory will be closed down, he'll make up a reason as to why it had nothing to do with Xbox exclusivity or Gamepass and the cycle will repeat until the only studios MS has left is BGS and activision. 

The raw specs needed for hitting 60fps at a decent resolution isn't helping either though. But yes if a lot of people are not buying the game but using gamepass, Steam isn't going to do much promotion, unless there is a Sale. Stores tend to promote popular products and number 218 isn't remotely close to popular.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar