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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Microsoft to become largest 3rd party publisher.

G2ThaUNiT said:

This thread aged like fine milk

What?

Four Xbox 1st party games are now on/heading to PlayStation.  So what you think it's just this four and that's it?  Give me a break!  This is Microsoft gently easing it's users in just like they did last time.  Oh did you forget that?  Here's a reminder:

Source: https://www.pcgamesn.com/gears-of-war/phil-spencer-says-not-every-xbox-game-will-come-to-pc

Just because Phil Spencer said the games in this batch isn't Starfield, do you really think it's not coming in the future?  Because Phil hasn't actually ruled it out:

Source: https://www.gamesradar.com/starfield-ps4-ps5/

Now lets look at the facts:

  • Microsoft have spent close to $80 Billion on huge studios, and the reason those studios cost that much is because they made so much money selling games for every platform.  You really think Satya Nadella is just going to let his purchase devalue when he himself as stated he would like to release Microsoft games on all platforms (Source: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042674/microsoft-xbox-exclusives-playstation-nintendo-switch-publisher )
  • Xbox sales are crashing hard, game pass numbers have flat lined, Xcloud has not taken off.  So when Satya Nadella talks about growing it's gaming business, there are no other avenues.
  • The most obvious fact.  They've already begun releasing 1st Party games on PlayStation!  I've got a pre-order for HiFi Rush for PS5!  If you can't see the clear signs now, I don't know what to tell you!

But Sure, keep laughing at my prediction.  Keep believing that games like Starfield are not coming to PS5.  Because you'll look even more foolish that you didn't see the signs right in front of your face.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

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OP is probably right.



only777 said:
G2ThaUNiT said:

This thread aged like fine milk

What?

Four Xbox 1st party games are now on/heading to PlayStation.  So what you think it's just this four and that's it?  Give me a break!  This is Microsoft gently easing it's users in just like they did last time.  Oh did you forget that?  Here's a reminder:

Source: https://www.pcgamesn.com/gears-of-war/phil-spencer-says-not-every-xbox-game-will-come-to-pc

Just because Phil Spencer said the games in this batch isn't Starfield, do you really think it's not coming in the future?  Because Phil hasn't actually ruled it out:

Source: https://www.gamesradar.com/starfield-ps4-ps5/

Now lets look at the facts:

  • Microsoft have spent close to $80 Billion on huge studios, and the reason those studios cost that much is because they made so much money selling games for every platform.  You really think Satya Nadella is just going to let his purchase devalue when he himself as stated he would like to release Microsoft games on all platforms (Source: https://www.theverge.com/2024/1/18/24042674/microsoft-xbox-exclusives-playstation-nintendo-switch-publisher )
  • Xbox sales are crashing hard, game pass numbers have flat lined, Xcloud has not taken off.  So when Satya Nadella talks about growing it's gaming business, there are no other avenues.
  • The most obvious fact.  They've already begun releasing 1st Party games on PlayStation!  I've got a pre-order for HiFi Rush for PS5!  If you can't see the clear signs now, I don't know what to tell you!

But Sure, keep laughing at my prediction.  Keep believing that games like Starfield are not coming to PS5.  Because you'll look even more foolish that you didn't see the signs right in front of your face.

I think people are laughing at your prediction because you made an extremely specific prediction with an exact set of dates and a timeline (I am referring to the original post). All 3 of your main predictions turned out to be completely wrong, so you then decided to move the goalposts and then attempted to take a victory lap. 

I think people would be more charitable if you were more humble and/or cautious with your predictions and posts. As it stands now you come off like a pompous ass with a completely unearned and unwarranted sense of arrogance. It’s unbecoming. 



Hi @aTokenYeti

I think you spoke too soon! With each passing week/epic Microsoft screw up, my prediction is coming true.

Everyone laughed at me when I said GamePass was a financial disaster and would completely ruin Xbox.

You’re not laughing now.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.

Ryuu96 said:

Ask yourselves this.

Would Xbox be having layoffs and closures this year if Game Pass didn't exist? That's a rhetorical question though because the answer is obviously YES.

Game Pass is the easy thing to blame but Xbox growth would be poor even without Game Pass, Hi-Fi Rush isn't suddenly becoming a 10m seller because it launched as a paid title. Lets also remember Starfield is the only new IP that charted last year in SALES. Game Pass is profitable but the ENTIRE INDUSTRY has slowed down, including subscription services.

But yes a price increase is likely coming to Game Pass and Game Pass will likely change but not because Game Pass is to blame for Xbox's current struggles but because THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY IS STAGNANT. All these moves were meant to avoid that, they didn't work out, but without them we'd be in an even worse position than we are now.

Even if Game Pass didn't exist, Microsoft isn't looking at Activison's profit margins and going "Well, Hi-Fi Rush sold 1m so lets keep it alive" instead of "Fallout will sell 20x the amount of Hi-Fi Rush, lets get Bethesda on that, lay off Tango and put the extra resources towards spamming out Fallout" We'd be in the exact same situation with or without Game Pass.

Activision has acquired Xbox.

Profitable is never good enough for these corps, it has to be REALLY profitable and INFINITE GROWTH and the profitability can't just be an increase of 1% YOY it has to be 200%. PlayStation has a profit margin of under 10% and they have a console which doubles the sales of Xbox, have multiple IPs which sell tens of millions, have 3rd parties selling millions, and they laid off and shutdown.

ABK has a profit margin of 30%

The money-suits are asking "Why doesn't XGS/Zenimax?" and it ain't because of Game Pass, Lol.

only777 said:

Hi @aTokenYeti

I think you spoke too soon! With each passing week/epic Microsoft screw up, my prediction is coming true.

Everyone laughed at me when I said GamePass was a financial disaster and would completely ruin Xbox.

You’re not laughing now.

This isn't just a MS issue. Layoffs and closers have been happening across the industry since 2023. Even from successful publishers like Sony without Game Pass having anything to do with. 

You don't think Xbox would have layoffs if Game Pass wasn't around? I doubt that. Layoffs would happen regardless.

Anyways, you predict Xbox won't have hardware even though they have basically confirmed hardware is coming. You seem way too excited about this. Kind of sad really. 

Last edited by smroadkill15 - on 13 May 2024

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It’s hard for me to work out how it makes financial sense for Microsoft to go third party, but that’s obviously what they are planning. Well, I don’t mind.



I'm wondering if MS is still trying to figure out how to both go full multiplat and still reap all the benefits of the XBox brand. One thing's for sure, either the XBox goes or the Game Pass goes. They've bought too many studios to keep the lights on with Game Pass only.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

smroadkill15 said:
Ryuu96 said:

Ask yourselves this.

Would Xbox be having layoffs and closures this year if Game Pass didn't exist? That's a rhetorical question though because the answer is obviously YES.

Game Pass is the easy thing to blame but Xbox growth would be poor even without Game Pass, Hi-Fi Rush isn't suddenly becoming a 10m seller because it launched as a paid title. Lets also remember Starfield is the only new IP that charted last year in SALES. Game Pass is profitable but the ENTIRE INDUSTRY has slowed down, including subscription services.

But yes a price increase is likely coming to Game Pass and Game Pass will likely change but not because Game Pass is to blame for Xbox's current struggles but because THE ENTIRE INDUSTRY IS STAGNANT. All these moves were meant to avoid that, they didn't work out, but without them we'd be in an even worse position than we are now.

Even if Game Pass didn't exist, Microsoft isn't looking at Activison's profit margins and going "Well, Hi-Fi Rush sold 1m so lets keep it alive" instead of "Fallout will sell 20x the amount of Hi-Fi Rush, lets get Bethesda on that, lay off Tango and put the extra resources towards spamming out Fallout" We'd be in the exact same situation with or without Game Pass.

Activision has acquired Xbox.

Profitable is never good enough for these corps, it has to be REALLY profitable and INFINITE GROWTH and the profitability can't just be an increase of 1% YOY it has to be 200%. PlayStation has a profit margin of under 10% and they have a console which doubles the sales of Xbox, have multiple IPs which sell tens of millions, have 3rd parties selling millions, and they laid off and shutdown.

ABK has a profit margin of 30%

The money-suits are asking "Why doesn't XGS/Zenimax?" and it ain't because of Game Pass, Lol.

only777 said:

Hi @aTokenYeti

I think you spoke too soon! With each passing week/epic Microsoft screw up, my prediction is coming true.

Everyone laughed at me when I said GamePass was a financial disaster and would completely ruin Xbox.

You’re not laughing now.

This isn't just a MS issue. Layoffs and closers have been happening across the industry since 2023. Even from successful publishers like Sony without Game Pass having anything to do with. 

You don't think Xbox would have layoffs if Game Pass wasn't around? I doubt that. Xbox would still have layoffs. Game Pass isn't a direct reason for Xbox having layoffs. 

Anyways, you predict Xbox won't have hardware even though they have basically confirmed hardware is coming. You seem way too excited about this. Kind of sad really. 

How many studios do they have to close before you admit Gamepass or Xbox exclusivity is a problem. Arkane Austin or Tango gameworks clearly isn't enough for you. How about Ninja Theory or Obsidian? HB2 is Releasing in middle of may with no marketing. The steam purchase statistics already look grim,and and before you say "well that's steam, not gamepass", GP has a direct impact on purchases because why buy on steam or Xbox if you can just GP it. Their studios, (with the only exception being BGS, or activsion) are all doomed if they don't get rid of GP current model or Xbox/PC exclusivity.   



Darwinianevolution said:

I'm wondering if MS is still trying to figure out how to both go full multiplat and still reap all the benefits of the XBox brand. One thing's for sure, either the XBox goes or the Game Pass goes. They've bought too many studios to keep the lights on with Game Pass only.

I have to agree that this is probably the most pressing matter as hand for them, and probably why it appears that they can't settle on a lane just yet. 



Honestly it seems all the things he predicted will come to pass, its only a matter of if the timeline he laid out turns out true.
Yet he was laughed at for saying these things only a year ago.