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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 126 84.56%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.44%
 
Total:149
Shtinamin_ on 20 February 2024
zeldaring said:
RolStoppable said:

What kind of nonsense is this?

My reasoning for GTA IV vs. Brawl was that the Wii's huge hardware sales would lift the software sales of Nintendo's own games, resulting in new heights for numerous franchises. And that did happen on the Wii. Ultimately, I merely picked the wrong game at the time, because Mario Kart Wii comfortably outsold GTA IV. The lesson learned from this is to not believe the hype and trust your own instincts; the hype for Brawl on this forum greatly outpaced the anticipation for Mario Kart.

Because Mario Kart Wii outsold GTA IV so easily, my prediction wasn't and still isn't regarded as "one of the worst ever". Funnily enough, this prediction from 16 years ago has actual relevance to this thread, because it demonstrates how one is supposed to react to being wrong.

Sadly, my post history has been wiped due to a security problem on VGC and my posts haven't been restored yet, but that doesn't mean that other people's posts are gone. Back in the day I owned up to my end of the bet and sent my opponent a PM, hence why he (Legend11) is the first one to respond in my thread:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/96804/omg-rol-got-banned-whom-do-we-have-to-thank/1/

He didn't want to go through with the bet, even though he had won. Didn't expect that kind of reaction, huh?

The bottom line is that your attempt here to make someone else look bad just backfired massively. You really are a casual, quickrick.

Mario kart is much bigger than brawl.  Anyway I'm a casual because I was right about mario wonder and you expectations of 40 million are off by miles. Still a silly prediction considering gta is now the biggest selling franchise in gaming.

And who this quick Rick you Hava dreams of. Do you want a quickie with him or something?

both of y'all are immature.

Mario Kart is bigger than Smash Bros.
Mario Wonder will continue to sell as a reliant evergreen title for the next 2+ years.
GTA is not the biggest selling franchise.

Mario 832.37M
Tetris 495M
Pokémon 480M
Call of Duty 425M
GTA 420M

Rockstar has a lot to go before it catch topple Mario.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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zeldaring on 20 February 2024
Shtinamin_ said:
zeldaring said:

Mario kart is much bigger than brawl.  Anyway I'm a casual because I was right about mario wonder and you expectations of 40 million are off by miles. Still a silly prediction considering gta is now the biggest selling franchise in gaming.

And who this quick Rick you Hava dreams of. Do you want a quickie with him or something?

both of y'all are immature.

Mario Kart is bigger than Smash Bros.
Mario Wonder will continue to sell as a reliant evergreen title for the next 2+ years.
GTA is not the biggest selling franchise.

Mario 832.37M
Tetris 495M
Pokémon 480M
Call of Duty 425M
GTA 420M

Rockstar has a lot to go before it catch topple Mario.

Sorry I meant single best selling game of all time with GTAV.



Shtinamin_ on 20 February 2024
zeldaring said:
Shtinamin_ said:

both of y'all are immature.

Mario Kart is bigger than Smash Bros.
Mario Wonder will continue to sell as a reliant evergreen title for the next 2+ years.
GTA is not the biggest selling franchise.

Mario 832.37M
Tetris 495M
Pokémon 480M
Call of Duty 425M
GTA 420M

Rockstar has a lot to go before it catch topple Mario.

Sorry I meant single best selling game of all time with GTAV.

That's Minecraft at 300M
GTA V 195M is 2nd



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Chrkeller on 20 February 2024

GTA is easily one of the strongest franchises in gaming. I think the series is complete crap but no doubt GTA6 is going to Smash it sales and push hardware sales.



RolStoppable on 20 February 2024
zeldaring said:

Mario kart is much bigger than brawl.  Anyway I'm a casual because I was right about mario wonder and you expectations of 40 million are off by miles. Still a silly prediction considering gta is now the biggest selling franchise and every installment  was selling near or over 20 million after gat3 while brawl never even broke 20 million before the switch version.

And who this quick Rick you Hava dreams of. Do you want a quickie with him or something?

Here you go again with claiming that you are right when you've already been proven wrong multiple times in this thread when you called the race early after Circana results. Your lifetime prediction of 20-22m for Wonder is bound to be wrong too. The only thing you can hope for is that Wonder stops selling immediately once the Switch successor has been released, but that's not how things work. Hence you'll be wrong.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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zeldaring on 20 February 2024
RolStoppable said:
zeldaring said:

Mario kart is much bigger than brawl.  Anyway I'm a casual because I was right about mario wonder and you expectations of 40 million are off by miles. Still a silly prediction considering gta is now the biggest selling franchise and every installment  was selling near or over 20 million after gat3 while brawl never even broke 20 million before the switch version.

And who this quick Rick you Hava dreams of. Do you want a quickie with him or something?

Here you go again with claiming that you are right when you've already been proven wrong multiple times in this thread when you called the race early after Circana results. Your lifetime prediction of 20-22m for Wonder is bound to be wrong too. The only thing you can hope for is that Wonder stops selling immediately once the Switch successor has been released, but that's not how things work. Hence you'll be wrong.

 If Nintendo announces wonder deluxe it also a easy win for me. just look at totk it was stopped dead in track yea I know it's mario and zelda is different but zelda had so much hype behind it and was trending so hard after 3 months it's barely selling, the slow down in Totk no one saw that coming. best case scenario for wonder is 25 million you are still off by only 15 million. 



RolStoppable on 20 February 2024
zeldaring said:

 If Nintendo announces wonder deluxe it also a easy win for me. just look at totk it was stopped dead in track yea I know it's mario and zelda is different but zelda had so much hype behind it and was trending so hard after 3 months it's barely selling, the slow down in Totk no one saw that coming. best case scenario for wonder is 25 million you are still off by only 15 million. 

Looking at sales charts would be the better idea to analyze sales than drawing comparisons to other games. Why bother talking about TotK when we get weekly/monthly software charts from a bunch of countries and can look directly at Wonder's performance. I mean, that's what people did with Wonder and Spider-Man when they told you that you'll be wrong after the holiday season; that wasn't blind guessing.

By the way, I didn't make any hard prediction for Wonder's lifetime sales. What I said was that third place in the final Switch top 10 is the floor and second place is the ceiling. That's a range of approximately 35-50 million units. Your range was 20-22 million. Despite a lower than expected start for Wonder, I am not concerned that my prediction will be off more than yours. After all, the game continues to chart high, typically ahead of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe which is the best benchmark there is.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

zeldaring on 20 February 2024
RolStoppable said:
zeldaring said:

 If Nintendo announces wonder deluxe it also a easy win for me. just look at totk it was stopped dead in track yea I know it's mario and zelda is different but zelda had so much hype behind it and was trending so hard after 3 months it's barely selling, the slow down in Totk no one saw that coming. best case scenario for wonder is 25 million you are still off by only 15 million. 

Looking at sales charts would be the better idea to analyze sales than drawing comparisons to other games. Why bother talking about TotK when we get weekly/monthly software charts from a bunch of countries and can look directly at Wonder's performance. I mean, that's what people did with Wonder and Spider-Man when they told you that you'll be wrong after the holiday season; that wasn't blind guessing.

By the way, I didn't make any hard prediction for Wonder's lifetime sales. What I said was that third place in the final Switch top 10 is the floor and second place is the ceiling. That's a range of approximately 35-50 million units. Your range was 20-22 million. Despite a lower than expected start for Wonder, I am not concerned that my prediction will be off more than yours. After all, the game continues to chart high, typically ahead of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe which is the best benchmark there is.

Ok we'll come back to this in year.



curl-6 on 20 February 2024
zeldaring said:
RolStoppable said:

What kind of nonsense is this?

My reasoning for GTA IV vs. Brawl was that the Wii's huge hardware sales would lift the software sales of Nintendo's own games, resulting in new heights for numerous franchises. And that did happen on the Wii. Ultimately, I merely picked the wrong game at the time, because Mario Kart Wii comfortably outsold GTA IV. The lesson learned from this is to not believe the hype and trust your own instincts; the hype for Brawl on this forum greatly outpaced the anticipation for Mario Kart.

Because Mario Kart Wii outsold GTA IV so easily, my prediction wasn't and still isn't regarded as "one of the worst ever". Funnily enough, this prediction from 16 years ago has actual relevance to this thread, because it demonstrates how one is supposed to react to being wrong.

Sadly, my post history has been wiped due to a security problem on VGC and my posts haven't been restored yet, but that doesn't mean that other people's posts are gone. Back in the day I owned up to my end of the bet and sent my opponent a PM, hence why he (Legend11) is the first one to respond in my thread:

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/96804/omg-rol-got-banned-whom-do-we-have-to-thank/1/

He didn't want to go through with the bet, even though he had won. Didn't expect that kind of reaction, huh?

The bottom line is that your attempt here to make someone else look bad just backfired massively. You really are a casual, quickrick.

Mario kart is much bigger than brawl.  Anyway I'm a casual because I was right about mario wonder and you expectations of 40 million are off by miles. Still a silly prediction considering gta is now the biggest selling franchise and every installment  was selling near or over 20 million after gat3 while brawl never even broke 20 million before the switch version.

What specifically were you right about in regards to Mario Wonder?

That it will sell around 20 million? That seems premature.

That it will be outsold by Spiderman? The race isn't over but Mario currently has the edge.

That it's not a big deal and that people weren't hyped for it? The sales would seem to contradict that.

That it will sell on par with NSMBUD? It's sold more in it's first two and half months than NSMBUD sold in it's first year and a half.



zeldaring on 20 February 2024
curl-6 said:
zeldaring said:

Mario kart is much bigger than brawl.  Anyway I'm a casual because I was right about mario wonder and you expectations of 40 million are off by miles. Still a silly prediction considering gta is now the biggest selling franchise and every installment  was selling near or over 20 million after gat3 while brawl never even broke 20 million before the switch version.

What specifically were you right about in regards to Mario Wonder?

That it will sell around 20 million? That seems premature.

That it will be outsold by Spiderman? The race isn't over but Mario currently has the edge.

That it's not a big deal and that people weren't hyped for it? The sales would seem to contradict that.

That it will sell on par with NSMBUD? It's sold more in it's first two and half months than NSMBUD sold in it's first year and a half.

I was right about it not being a big deal as people were making out be. Being a 35-40 million sellers was a comman prediction. I think realistically we might be looking at 25-27 million tops.