October 20th sees two of the biggest games of the year launching simulatenously.

Both console exclusives, both from massive franchises, both with immense hype and high expectations behind them.

Which do you think will sell more lifetime, and why?

EDIT: I should have clarified, this is the Switch version of Wonder and the PS5 version of Spiderman, any future releases for Switch 2/PC not included.

Short term: Super Mario Bros Wonder

Long term: Spider-Man 2 especially if it comes out on PC.

I got SMB Wonder pre-ordered and will get Spider-Man 2 sometime in the future when a GOTY edition is out on PS5.

Lifetime probably Spider-man 2.

But Mario Wonder will sell more in short term, mostly because of Japan.

Mario Wonder, 20+ million on Switch and 20+ million on Switch 2

Given the install base of the Switch and the massive success of the Super Mario Bros movie, I would say Wonder. Not to mention, quite a few Nintendo first-party games sell well over 20 million units.

Super Mario Wonder hands down

This is tricky. Spider-Man 1 combined with Miles Morales has sold 33m as of May 2022 though that was close to 1.5 years ago and before the PC releases so they're probably over 40m by now with the former taking up the vast majority. Mario Wonder has potential to sell a similar amount to that by itself due to the Switch's install base and it having higher appeal than NSMB Wii which sold 30m though Spider-Man 2 could easily outdo the first as long as it's received well. I could see both being close enough that one getting a PC port and the other not becomes the deciding factor. One thing that's almost certain is both games will have amazing legs.

I think Wonder will sell more, but I could be wrong. Spider-Man 2 getting a PC release gives it a good chance to overtake Wonder.
I'll get both day 1, but feel more inclined to play Wonder first.

Super Mario Bros Wonder will sell more.

So Spiderman 2 is only on PS5? Then I would think Wonder will win by a wiiiide margin. Console games sell in the several tens of millions when they are on like 4 systems across two generations plus PC. But if it's just PS5 then I would think Spiderman 2 stays under 20m while Wonder might hit 30m.