This topic was inspired by seeing a user talk about the possibility of the Switch successor, or "Switch 2" failing.  I'm curious what everyone thinks are the lowest sales the Switch 2 will get.  Obviously, Nintendo has a bit of a spotty track record when it comes to capitalizing on the success of their platforms from one generation to the next, so the future is cloudy at best.  But let's lay our cards on the table well before we even know what Nintendo is cooking for next-gen and see how close we can predict the "worst-case" scenario for Nintendo according to VGChartz.

As a bonus, how many units do you think they have to sell for the Switch 2 to not be deemed a failure?

If it's portable, the floor is 50 million no matter how bad the games or the hardware itself is, even if the machine was more expensive than a PS5 there is no way for it to sell less than 50 million.


If it's not portable, Wii U level of sales are not out of question if the hardware and software are bad. Wii U was killed quickly, so 20 million assuring Nintendo give it at least 5 years of proper support 

One of the reasons the Switch is a success is because it's the only current Nintendo platform, instead of having a home console and a dedicated portable system. If the successor follows this idea, then it could be as successful as the Switch 1.

While anything can happen, we've seen the floor so far for Nintendo handhelds. 3DS sold 75.94 million units. Game Boy and Game Boy Color are lumped together in sales, but individually the Game Boy Color sold worse than 3DS and likely Game Boy did as well.
Switch 2 is almost surely going to be a hybrid. Because if it wasn't, it wouldn't be Switch 2. It would be Nintendo transitioning back to a home console and portable or just a portable.
I voted 71-80 million. The absolute floor for a Nintendo handheld is probably 41-50 million.

It heavily depends on what they do but assuming it's a standard successor and that high quality games keep coming then at worst it should do as well as the PS4 did.

Maybe i'm too optimistic, or i misunderstood the question but imo 100m is the floor, given the runaway success of the Switch and its successors' likely continuity. However, i noted that it's the highest possible option on the poll, so maybe a line of thinking may be that Nintendo somehow screws up? It's certainly possible but i just can't see it.
In answer to your bonus question, there's probably different answers for different posters/analysts, Going to go out on a limb and say anything over the LT of, say the NES (61m, or thereabouts) will be seen by most as a success imo. (Excluding the fact that Switch will sell LT multitudes more. If compared to the Switch possibly anything less than 100m will be considered a failure.)

Like Sony, I can't see Nintendo dropping below 100 million going forward, assuming those companies stick with just 1 system per generation. Barring any unusual circumstances, I think anything below 100 million is too big of a drop.

It should at least do around 3DS/GBA numbers, right?

I went with 81-90 million for the floor.

The worst selling Nintendo portable was the 3DS at 75 million. And that came out about a decade before Switch 2 is coming out. Industry has probably grown a little bit during that time. Also Nintendo screwed up with the whole 3D gimmick, and with the WiiU being a failure at the same time Nintendo definitely temporarily lost some popularity with consumers at that point. Also 3DS wasn't a hybrid which gives Switch 2 another advantage.

So realistically (assuming Nintendo just doesn't botch everything about the system and games) I would say there is no way it sells as low as the 3DS. If they make some serious screw ups I could see it only getting in the 80 millions. More realistically if all they do is put out a straight update to the Switch, and keep making great games but don't do anything spectacular, it should at least hit 100m. I very much doubt it will match the Switch, but I don't think there's any way that it goes as low as the 3DS, and I'd say PS3/X360 to Wii numbers are probably a realistic floor.

I voted 61 - 70m as the floor. The 3DS is close to the worst that they could do for a portable system. I just voted a little lower than that.