No, simply put. I don't think both companies will reach the estimates they sought for at the beginning of April. 

And as debated right now, the PS5 has quite the uphill battle in the next two quarters of it wants to reach the milestone they set themselves for. Whislt Nintendo first forecasted seemed quite conservative to their Q1 performance. They could actually manage to go higher if the Mario effect is quite strong during this holiday.

Is it, though?  I mean, it depends on whose drum beat you are listening to.  And, anyway, weak economic times don't spell disaster for game companies.  In fact, because gaming is a relatively cheap entertainment option, the gaming sector often thrives during economic downturns.

I think 20m was PS4's best year so even reaching 21 would be pretty nuts to me.  25 would actually be crazy to be 25% higher than their peak year (I don't think PS2 did that much better any year)

Yeah being 0.2m below what the PS4 shipped that quarter is concerning for hitting the lofty goal but overall it's not concerning at all since 3.3m is still strong and it should have a massive holiday season.

Sony is forecasting a reduction in HW profit for the remaining of the fiscal year.

The system is $499 in the US, £480 in the UK, €549 in Europe, ¥60k in Japan and AUD799 in Australia.

A new model at a base of $399 + Venom will do the job.

I feel like people are forgetting PS5 is a premium device while the economy is plummeting. That price is weirdly placed, why would you do a temporary one if you had sold all the units you wanted in the first place ? No one wants to cut the price for no reason. They weren't meeting the numbers they expected and are trying to boost this quarter's numbers since they are probably not looking so good.

PS5's high price point could also play against them in the Christmas season. Not every family will be able to afford it in this period and after a few years, that target audience becomes more and more into play.

Of the five times that a platform has hit 25 million in a FY none of them had a Q1 below 5 million and they were all considerably cheaper than PS5 especially the DS. I think if Sony really wants 25 million this FY then it is possible but they will need to eat a lot of cost and forget about those profit margins. They need to get that standard PS5 down to $399.99 permanently.

Fiscal Years of 25 million

31.18M - NDS 08/09: 6.94M - 6.79M - 11.89M - 5.56M
30.31M - NDS 07/08: 6.98M - 6.37M - 11.15M - 5.81M
28.82M - NSW 20/21: 5.67M - 6.86M - 11.57M - 4.72M
27.11M - NDS 09/10: 5.97M - 5.73M - 11.65M - 3.76M
25.95M - Wii 08/09: 5.17M - 4.93M - 10.41M - 5.44M

Price

NDS - $129.99 in 2008 adjusted for inflation is $184 in 2023
Wii - $249.99 in 2008 adjusted for inflation is $354 in 2023
NSW - $299.99 standard and $199.99 Lite in 2020 adjusted for inflation is $353 and $236 in 2023.

PS5 - $499.99 standard and $399.99 digital edition

Yeah to reach 25m it will have to do 5-12-5 in the next 3 quarters. At it's current price I don't think the demand would be there for that but does seem like there will be a price cut so I think it should be achievable.
If this new model & price cut is at the beginning of the holiday quarter then I think PS5 has a good shot at taking the shipment record from DS. (as it's already mid Q2 I doubt this new model is releasing this quarter so no chance of beating Switch's record, and it's not going to beat it's own Q4 record)

Is Sony really aiming for 25m this fiscal year??

Seems like a tad bit optimistic haha. I could see them hitting 21m if things go well the whole year for them. Yeah if they want any chance to come close to 25m they are going to have to get real aggressive this year on the stuff you mention. The first three quarters should all be decently stronger than last FY, but Q4 is when they finally ended stock shortages and absolutely flooded the market and all that pent up demand boosted the quarter a huge amount. They will very likely be like >2m lower this year on Q4 which cuts out probably most of what they are gonna gain over last year in Q1 and Q2 combined. Meaning they'd have to beat last year's holiday quarter by about 6m haha which would be a ludicrous 13m holiday quarter which obviously won't happen. So yeah, 21m sounds about right. The next FY will probably be the peak maybe a little bit higher than that.

It was reported early into the generation that PS5 (standard edition) started making profit just a few months post launch (pretty sure Sony hit record profits during PS5's launch window, which is unprecedented). But COVID complications and economical changes really messed things up, and now nearly 3 years later, PS5 is priced higher than it did at launch.

As KazuyaMishima pointed out though, Sony's hardware profit forecast hints at a combination of pricecuts, aggressive deals, and "Digital Edition" being pushed. Because if pricing doesn't change, the cheaper revision (lower BOM and shipping cost) and the 25 million target should increase profitability.

About time PS5 got its first pricecut, but it sucks that manufacturing costs are barely dropping since launch.