FFXVI dropped more in it's third week than FFXV and FFVII Remake did. Those dropped by 51% and only 7%.

I think holiday 2027 could still happen but not any earlier than that. That wouldn't be the only reason, there's also wanting to play a much better version of those games. The main thing is the Switch 2 is not gonna get going in a big way until 2025 and by then the PS5 will already be thoroughly established so I don't see it having much impact.

Here's one that also managed to do that:

Brain Training on Switch:

08./00. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} (¥3.480) - 34.696 / NEW <20-40%>

07./08. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} (¥3.480) - 41.455 / 76.151 <40-60%> (+19%)

Only one game from the ps5 can take a rank in the top 20 of the ps4 and thats show how bad ps5 is doing in japan.

https://teitengame.com/salesbyhard.html

Final Fantasy XV sold less than 5k on Xbox in Japan...

Fair enough, but we are talking about Japan here. If playing a better version was valued there, mobile and switch wouldn't be dominating now. PC gaming is also growing in Japan, the hardcore gamers that does care about a better version would most likely get a PC, not a PS5. I don't know about Switch 2 not having an impact until 2025 (unless it's released in 2025). Once its announced, people are going to save money to buy it and steal potential customers that might've bought a PS5. If that happens, I could see the legs for PS5 being poor just like how the legs for Wii was poor. 

PC gaming has been growing in popularity in Japan yeah but a PS5 is significantly cheaper than a PC with similar specs so a capable console is still a preferable purchase to many like elsewhere. It should release next year but Nintendo has said it won't be this fiscal year so it'll be April at the earliest and I expect later than that so 2025 will its first full proper year is what I meant by get going in a big way. It could have some negative impact on the PS5 but I doubt it'll be major since the Switch hasn't held it back despite selling extremely well the past 3 years.

Hey, at least the top PS5 game would be in 10th place on the Wii U.

If Chinese gamers are the ones responsible for the surge in sales between Switch, PS5, and PS4, then that raises another question.
How long before the Chinese government cracks down on those imports as well?
If they're truly THAT concerned about gaming addiction and control how much comes in and out of their country, of course they're gonna notice this sudden surge of importing Japanese consoles and games. And they're not just gonna sit back and do nothing. I'd expect them to respond at some point. Like raising the tariffs they charge on Nintendo, Sony, and the Japanese government to ship their products over there to the point where they just don't find it worth the price. (I'm not entirely sure if that's how tariffs work, perhaps it's the other way around.) If not outright ban them entirely and enforce strict rules and punishments on their own citizens if they're caught trying to smuggle them (Christ on a Stick, maybe video games really ARE drugs. I'm sure talking like they are...)

Honestly I'm surprised people keep ignoring this dynamic, which was well established & reported way back in 2021, partially explains the PS5 software situation which has been very consistent across every piece of software, there is not a single outlier. The actual number of PS5's sitting in Japan is way less than raw numbers suggest. Honestly I think you can go as far as chopping the PS5's userbase in half... So people don't need to keep acting shocked & confused when the software mismatches the hardware.

Digital has a smaller but notable role to play