Shatts said:
Norion said:archbrix said:
The PS5 currently is in one of its biggest years though and it continues to struggle against the current Switch in Japan. Final Fantasy launch week didn't even see the PS5 come out ahead. Meanwhile, the aging Switch still has Mario Wonder, which will surely sell as high as Mario is in the game, as well as titles that will sustain its sales. It's that continued support and interest in the current Switch as well as the big yearly decline I think we'll see for PS5 once Switch 2 arrives that might keep the PS5 from the numbers you're projecting. If 2023-2024 is the PS5's peak as many believe, what are sales going to look like in Japan as they naturally decline against Switch 2 starting its (presumably) winning run? Maybe all of the exporting will help but I just don't expect a big enough interest for the PS5 in Japan going forward. |
The issue is by the time the Switch 2 comes out the PS5 will already be at 5-6m. It'd have to kinda fall off a cliff to not reach 9.5m the following few years especially if this is a longer generation. I don't see why the Switch 2's success would cause that when it's able to sell as well as it is currently despite the current Switch having an amazing stretch right now. It's not like the Switch's 2021 and 2022 were why the PS5's first couple years weren't good, if there was ample stock then it would've sold perfectly fine despite the Switch doing amazing then. |
Tbf the claim that next gen is coming in 2028 is just an assumption from Microsoft. There's always the possibility of PS5 being the last console from Sony, or next gen releasing earlier than expected. Since we don't know what Nintendo's next console will be like, there's really no telling. However if our assumption that it will be a Switch 2 is correct, I do think PS5 is slightly in danger since power isn't really that important nowadays. PS4 pro isn't that much different than a PS5. Perhaps we haven't seen its full capabilities/potential, but the PS5's marketing point in Japan is that it's able to play more AAA games that demands more power without spending more than 30k yen on a PC setup. If Switch 2 is on par with the PS4 and has dlss, most AAA should be able to play on it with close to no problem. So the only reason to buy a PS5 would be its exclusive. Are there going to be PS5 exclusives where lots of JP users would want to play? I doubt it. |
I think holiday 2027 could still happen but not any earlier than that. That wouldn't be the only reason, there's also wanting to play a much better version of those games. The main thing is the Switch 2 is not gonna get going in a big way until 2025 and by then the PS5 will already be thoroughly established so I don't see it having much impact.
