I always thought that Switch would be pretty close to 4m this year - mostly because I believed that we were going to get news like we did from the Nintendo Direct. Like I said before, it shows that the Switch is getting the prolonged software support from Nintendo that it deserves and that it will remain a popular system through next year. That's why it made no sense when people speculated that Nintendo was somehow going to call it quits on Switch support right after releasing TOTK this year. The reveal of Super Mario Bros Wonder is the epitome of this support; remember that Super Mario Bros 3 on the NES became the biggest selling non-bundled game on the platform despite releasing late in the console's life. I think SMBW will probably end up in the top 3 sellers for Switch by the end.

Now I think > 4m in Japan this year for Switch is almost certain. Hopefully, a Mario Wonder themed Switch releases, which will cause the system's sales to go bananas again for a few weeks.

Recent Playstation JRPG (Famitsu), launch weeks:

1. Dragon Quest XI* - 950.338
2. Final Fantasy XV - 716.649
3. Final Fantasy VII Remake - 702.853
4. Kingdom Hearts III - 640.406
5. Dragon Quest Heroes - 566.569
6. Dragon Quest Heroes II - 381.928
7. Persona 5 - 344.854
8. Final Fantasy XVI - 336.027
9. Tales of Arise - 201.798
10. Persona 5 Royal - 201.448

Source: Lelouch0612 (InstallBase)

Objectively Final Fantasy 15 is the best selling game in the franchise. Japan sales =/= Global sales.

The direction from Square makes it clear they're not too focused on orientating the direction of these games around appealing to Japan's audience.

I don't think they're getting to 10 million with just PS5 and PC. FF7 Remake hasn't even gotten there in years, even that FF7 Remake could probably benefit quite a bit from a Switch 2 release. 

XV isn't PS exclusive which is also his point, not appealing to Japan is part of the reason for the decline in sales. Being multiplatform helped make up for the loss but as an exclusive it's not going to match XV, FFVIIR landed at 5.6m despite being a heavily anticipated title for years with some people saying it will hit 10m, XVI will likely settle at the same mark.

The problem with FF it's not that the sales are bad it's that it's not showing any growth and we're in an era of wider gaps between releases. 

Yeah, that happens when you put the game on PS Plus 11 months after launch and make it EGS exclusive for a year before releasing it on Steam 2 and 2 months years after original release on PS4.

FFXV has sold not much more than 1 million on Xbox. Being multiplatform on console didn't change its overall sales success. XV launched late on PC and XVI will do the same 

We can't really talk about the franchise's "decline" commercially when the last entry is the biggest in the franchise lol. 

As far as XVI we'd really need to look at it's sales throughout a decent period of time. VII R opened big but had very short legs. It's overall meek performance can probably be tied to it being only part of the full game and the nostalgia aspect being overated.

Lastly the franchise hasn't grown massively as it maybe could have but the first place I'd look is at the highly divisive experience people have been having recently with Both mainline games (XIII & XV) and the spinoffs. Most people I know haven't loved a FF since the 2000s. Let's see if 16 can help mend that...

Of course being on Switch would help SE shift more units but I think its blatantly against their ambitions for mainline FF for the time being & mainline FF isn't actually declining in sales so far. 

The reason behind the 100K+ Last Week: (SUUUUPEEEER MARIO RPG [With Smash 64 announcer voice])

I believe FF will never experience big growth like other franchises 

It's a game that heavily changes the gameplay every entry. People always get dissatisfied with something. I'm talking with some friends who liked FF XV (it was their only FF) and are not liking XVI because they can't control party members and exploration is limited compared with XV open spaces

It's hard to build a core fandom when some games are so different from others. Of course you have people like me who are fans exactly because we don't know what we're getting, but weirdos like are are the minority. Most people want their games to be exactly the same with some iterative evolutions

Even if XVI experience great word of mouth and end selling 15 million (won't happen, but let's pretend for the sake of the argument) I believe this will not lead to a big increase in sales for the next entry, specially if they change everything again

Switch's sales over the last several weeks have been really something. With first new 2D Mario entry in over a decade arriving in a few months, the system looks set to sell better in its 7th year than its 2nd.

As for FF... I suspect one of the main reasons for its stagnation in Japan is that it hasn't had a very cohesive identity for a while, due to its quest to constantly reinvent itself. Doesn't help that it's only available on hardware that Japan's not terribly enthusiastic about.
There was a time where FF was one of the top dogs there, but by now its power has diminished significantly.