Tbh I still think A-tier Switch exclusives are still possible before Switch 2 releases. I think I mentioned it earlier but we've seen numerous consoles release an A-tier game just months before the successor released. Yoshi's Island in 1995 before the N64, Majora's Mask only around a year before the GameCube, Pokemon SUN & Moon 3 months before the Switch. The Last of Us only a few months before PS4 released,ect.

Also, not every franchise needs to be ready at the launch window of Switch 2, lets say Nintendo releases a 3D Mario exclusively for Switch in Holiday 2024, while 3D Mario may not be ready for the launch window, Nintendo could still release a Smash Bros, Animal Crossing,Pokemon,Mario Party, and other various Nintendo franchises where their development cycles would likely finish by the time we reach the Switch 2 launch window. 

Not sure. everything for the most part can be ported these days. Even sony putting their exclusives on PC. It will interesting so what approach they take but for big nintendo games to skip switch in 2024 would be crazy with a massive user base, and just look at what zelda sold  in 3 days at 70$ i just can't see Nintendo saying well lets just focus on switch 2. 

The Switch 2 definitely needs a 3D Mario early in the product cycle, probably within the first 8-9 months if I'm being honest. With no new Zelda already, not having a big Mario adventure game would leave a large void on the system even if you had an Animal Crossing and Smash Brothers for example, it would still be far from ideal. 

We also have to factor in games on the Switch 2 are likely going to require longer development times. Likely we are bumping up to a processing range somewhere above the PS4 with some feature set aspects that are on par with the PS5. That is going to be a full generation leap most likely and Nintendo is likely going to have some learning curve on top of just the added complexity. So if you're talking about letting one of the A-tier franchise teams work on a game for the old Switch, you probably are talking about them being out of service to help the Switch 2 quite possibly until 2027, 2028, etc. ... not very good planning. 

At this point, with the announcement of Mario Wonder and Mario RPG Remake, I don't think any one can really sit there and complain that Nintendo hasn't done everything required/expected for the Switch software wise and really probably even more. I mean I'd like an F-Zero or Star Fox, but these are extremely niche asks at this point. If they don't release even a single Switch game past what they've already announced, the system is already 110% well served. 

Realistically Nintendo cannot as a business make moves that just make 6 people on a sales message board happy, they have the future of their company to worry about as much (much) larger priority and the future is the Switch successor. Everything that can be done to ensure its success must be undertaken years in advance of its release. 

Rather than hyper focus on just things like release dates of the next console, I think the focus should shift to how long the cross gen period between the old and new hardware Nintendo will commit to and whether or not Switch will get a grace period of a few years like the 3DS did. Wanting those to be well served are more realistic asks. 

I'm not sure a crossgen period as extensive as PS4/Xbone got would be wise for the Switch/Switch 2; Nintendo's audience are notoriously less easy to convince to upgrade compared to the PS/Xbox audience, if all your big first party games keep coming to the old machine for the first year or two, you risk Switch 2 failing to get off the ground.

A better idea would probably be to treat it the way they did 3DS/Switch back in 2017-2019; lower priority stuff like the already announced Peach game and Luigi's Mansion 2 remastered keep coming to Switch for a while, but the big blockbusters are exclusive to the new machine.

You guys really underestimate how big Nintendo franchises have gotten. You don't think switch 2 will sell just on better hardware for 2 years? I mean we are talking a massive jump here. It's gonna be much bigger then ps4 to ps5. And Switch never even got a pro version.

It's because Nintendo is notoriously know for making gimmick hardware that sometimes do not allow you to play your old library in good shape and/or whack software cycles that can either go well or be a Wii U...

When Sony announced PS5 they revealed many big IPs coming for the next 3 years. Sony always had great games in every console, so nobody even bothered if they launch without big games because the big games were coming anyway

Nobody gives a damn if the games are cross gen, because you know your PS5 will be a worth it purchase and will have a long tail of life period

But this is a relationship based on trust that took Sony 20 years to achieve, the only non smooth Sony transition was PS2-PS3, mainly to be blamed on high prices and a competitor who offered the same games with a better experience (Xbox). However even the failure of PS2-PS3 transition is overstated by people on forum boards, for customers it was a DS-3DS situation at best and common customers had no ill memories about PS3

Personally speaking, with Sony I know that I can "trust" because their third parties and first parties will be there for easy 7 years. With Nintendo I didn't know what exactly was going to happen, if it bombs they can cut the console support quickly. We also have no idea if third parties will adopt the console either

This time with Switch 2 Nintendo has a chance to prove they can have a successful transition and make another console that is not gimmicky, that will last for 7 years and will get relevant third party support.

If they succeed, then when Switch 3 comes out they will be in the same position as Sony was with PS5

IMO, Nintendo really should make at least 3 titles cross-gen, possibly more.

Switch has a massive userbase, and not throwing them a few bones from the successor for the first few years is a risky move.

Mario Kart has become such a massive IP. Yes, Nintendo could make Mario Kart 9 exclusive on Switch 2. But even if it moves less Switch 2 units, Mario Kart 9 would probably sell more overall if it's cross-gen. Most mid to low-budget titles early on during the lifecycle of the next system should be cross-gen, or like you said to put them on Switch. 

3D Mario, I'm mixed on. I'm not opposed to it being cross-gen, but it would probably make more sense to be Switch 2-only. 

Super Smash Bros. should not be cross-gen, neither should Zelda.

Pokemon Gen 10 would probably be a decent cross-gen choice. The game could take more advantage of Switch specs than previous games have, and the Switch 2 version will have far better specs to work with. 

I'm not saying don't throw the Switch 1 base any bones, I'm saying throw them the mid to low tier stuff while keeping the big killer apps only on Switch 2 to drive adoption. 

Nintendo only have only one hardware line now, so they absolutely cannot afford to risk Switch 2 failing to get off the ground. There's no 3DS to bail them out this time. 

This. 

You are describing exactly what Nintendo did with the 3DS during the Switch's first couple of years.  This is also what Nintendo did with the NES during the SNES's first couple of years.  After the Switch 2 releases, Nintendo is going to act like they have 2 relevant systems: a premier system (Switch 2) and a budget system (Switch). 

Another reason they like to do this is to hedge their bets.  If Switch 2 ends up being a disaster they can still make money on the Switch.  This goes back to what happened with the Virtual Boy and Gameboy.  The Virtual Boy was a disaster, so they kept supporting the Gameboy.  A year or so later, Pokemon got released on the Gameboy and totally saved Nintendo's bacon.  Then the life of the Gameboy was extended for several more years.

Nintendo is going to keep supporting the Switch with minor titles for a few more years, if for no other reason than they want an insurance policy in case Switch 2 turns into a disaster.

Furukawa has to get Switch 2 right.

NES to SNES - decline
SNES to N64 - decline
N64 to GCN - decline
DS to 3DS - decline
Wii to Wii U - massive decline

While there are instances of big success, there are too many instances of decline, and especially the Wii to Wii U and DS to 3DS I think wounded Nintendo deeply. Iwata not being able to succeed the Wii and DS properly ... now it's on Furukawa to make sure that Switch 2 is not a Wii U or even a 3DS.

And I think you got be stone cold serious about that, no goofing around, I think Nintendo will be full guns blazing with the Switch 2 because the shadow of the Wii U and 3DS still I think linger heavy over the company. It's a painful period that I don't think any of the senior staff there have forgotten.

They need to do this for Iwata, they need to prove they can succeed a successful full gen product without declining the very next time out and do in an acceptable time frame too. You can't be afraid of it, you have to be prepared and ready to go kick ass from day 1.