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Forums - Nintendo - If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

farlaff on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

I’m not sure I believe this theory that PS/XB gamers are willing to upgrade but Nintendo fans aren’t. For example, look at the popularity of the OLED model, you have millions of people willing to upgrade to a more expensive model for a better screen, imagine how many people would upgrade for better graphics/resolution/frame rate.


Switch launch-March 3, 2017

Switch shipments as of Sept 30, 2018-22.86 million (~19 months)

Switch OLED launch-October 8, 2021

Switch OLED shipments as of March 31, 2023-15.02 million (~18 months)

OLED is a more expensive model with a better screen and a couple minor QOL improvements, games don’t perform better on it and it doesn’t have any exclusive games or features yet it’s the most popular sku since it released and is doing pretty well launches aligned compared to the original model.

As long as Switch 2 is a pretty straight forward successor that isn’t way more expensive or focused on some new gimmick that people don’t want (3D screen or Wii U game pad) than I don’t see why cross-gen releases would prevent it from succeeding.

It's not that Nintendo's audience is unwilling to upgrade, it's just that historically they've done so inconsistently.

PS and Xbox have been able to fuck up pretty badly and still sell 87m/50m units, they pretty much just have to show up and say "hey, here's the next box" and people will run out and buy it. 

Nintendo's audience tends to need more convincing.

Totally agree with this. Otherwise WiiU could have been at least a minor hit.



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javi741 on 27 June 2023

The reason why Nintendo players at least when it comes to home consoles are far less willing to upgrade is because Nintendo for most of its history never had good 3rd party support to lean on and instantly get people to get the system cause they know that even if their favorite franchise on the next system isn't as impressive, they know that there are a ton of other games on PS & Xbox gamers can choose from.

For Nintendo, if their favorite franchise doesn't end up looking as impressive for them to upgrade, they really don't have much of any other reason to get the next Nintendo system cause all there is are Nintendo games and not much else to look forward to on the system.

When it comes to Nintendo, people are primarily only buying Nintendo systems for the Nintendo games and experience, this makes it much more difficult for Nintendo generation after generation to convince people to buy their system because all they're getting it for is for a few Nintendo games, so the value proposition isn't automatically as high as lets say a PS where you know for certain there's gonna be so much to play on the system.

Since Nintendo is typically already at a disadvantage when it comes to the games they offer, they need to make their games and system stand out enough to add value to a system that you'll only get for Nintendo games.

When transitioning to the SNES to N64, a good amount of people, primarily Japanese players left Nintendo cause the N64 didn't have the RPGs they were looking for which was arguably the most appealing part of the SNES for many Japanese players, and they didn't see it as worth it to get a N64 just for Nintendo games. The biggest regional drop for Nintendo with the N64 compared to SNES was easily in Japan where they went from selling 19M with the SNES to only 5M with N64. Surprisingly in NA, the N64 despite a huge drop in 3rd party support, barely dropped in sales compared to SNES, where the N64 sold 20M compared to 22M with the SNES, barely a drop for a system that had significantly less 3rd party support. My assumption for why the drop wasn't big in NA is because seeing Nintendo games in 3D for the first time was mind blowing enough for NA to want the system again despite the lack of 3rd party support.

From N64 to GC, the drop was even more significant. While sales in Europe and Japan primarily stated the same with the GC compared to N64 due to lack of 3rd party RPGs. The biggest drop this time was in NA where sales dropped from 20M to 12M, I think we saw an even bigger drop in NA simply because the Nintendo games released for GC just wasn't as impressive for people compared to N64, and ik a good amount of people who would meme the games releasing on N64 for being so weird and looking not that impressive like Luigi's Mansion. Mario Sunshine was an unconventional sequel to the legendary Mario 64 that turned people off, and Windwaker wasn't the OOT sequel that fans were hoping for. And for the GC in general it was probably Nintendo's most uninteresting console they've released as tbh their was really zero hook with it that really made it stand out more than a failed wannabe PS2.

For the Wii, we saw Nintendo bring back the value of their system with motion controls, something the competitors couldn't offer, and same with the Switch.

So to conclude, the reason why Nintendo gamers are far less likely to upgrade is because they need something that adds significant value to the console if they're gonna spend hundreds of dollars just to play a few Nintendo games, PS & Xbox don't because gamers can trust that all the time that there will always be something new to play from every developer, can't say the same for Nintendo consoles with their limited 3rd party support

However, it's good to point out that this never really applied to Nintendo's handheld consoles as the handheld Nintendo gamers typically do a good job at upgrading every generation, I think a big part of it is Pokemon which has a huge fanbase that's far more willing to upgrade each gen than other franchises, also Nintendo handhelds just tend to be more appealing in general since Nintendo games are great and accessible pick up and play games. Also, handhelds tend to be far cheaper than consoles which makes them more appealing since you aren't spending as much just to play Nintendo games.

Last edited by javi741 - on 27 June 2023

Soundwave on 27 June 2023
javi741 said:

The reason why Nintendo players at least when it comes to home consoles are far less willing to upgrade is because Nintendo for most of its history never had good 3rd party support to lean on and instantly get people to get the system cause they know that even if their favorite franchise on the next system isn't as impressive, they know that there are a ton of other games on PS & Xbox gamers can choose from.

For Nintendo, if their favorite franchise doesn't end up looking as impressive for them to upgrade, they really don't have much of any other reason to get the next Nintendo system cause all there is are Nintendo games and not much else to look forward to on the system.

When it comes to Nintendo, people are primarily only buying Nintendo systems for the Nintendo games and experience, this makes it much more difficult for Nintendo generation after generation to convince people to buy their system because all they're getting it for is for a few Nintendo games, so the value proposition isn't automatically as high as lets say a PS where you know for certain there's gonna be so much to play on the system.

Since Nintendo is typically already at a disadvantage when it comes to the games they offer, they need to make their games and system stand out enough to add value to a system that you'll only get for Nintendo games.

When transitioning to the SNES to N64, a good amount of people, primarily Japanese players left Nintendo cause the N64 didn't have the RPGs they were looking for which was arguably the most appealing part of the SNES for many Japanese players, and they didn't see it as worth it to get a N64 just for Nintendo games. The biggest regional drop for Nintendo with the N64 compared to SNES was easily in Japan where they went from selling 19M with the SNES to only 5M with N64. Surprisingly in NA, the N64 despite a huge drop in 3rd party support, barely dropped in sales compared to SNES, where the N64 sold 20M compared to 22M with the SNES, barely a drop for a system that had significantly less 3rd party support. My assumption for why the drop wasn't big in NA is because seeing Nintendo games in 3D for the first time was mind blowing enough for NA to want the system again despite the lack of 3rd party support.

From N64 to GC, the drop was even more significant. While sales in Europe and Japan primarily stated the same with the GC compared to N64 due to lack of 3rd party RPGs. The biggest drop this time was in NA where sales dropped from 20M to 12M, I think we saw an even bigger drop in NA simply because the Nintendo games released for GC just wasn't as impressive for people compared to N64, and ik a good amount of people who would meme the games releasing on N64 for being so weird and looking not that impressive like Luigi's Mansion. Mario Sunshine was an unconventional sequel to the legendary Mario 64 that turned people off, and Windwaker wasn't the OOT sequel that fans were hoping for. And for the GC in general it was probably Nintendo's most uninteresting console they've released as tbh their was really zero hook with it that really made it stand out more than a failed wannabe PS2.

For the Wii, we saw Nintendo bring back the value of their system with motion controls, something the competitors couldn't offer, and same with the Switch.

So to conclude, the reason why Nintendo gamers are far less likely to upgrade is because they need something that adds significant value to the console if they're gonna spend hundreds of dollars just to play a few Nintendo games, PS & Xbox don't because gamers can trust that all the time that there will always be something new to play from every developer, can't say the same for Nintendo consoles with their limited 3rd party support

However, it's good to point out that this never really applied to Nintendo's handheld consoles as the handheld Nintendo gamers typically do a good job at upgrading every generation, I think a big part of it is Pokemon which has a huge fanbase that's far more willing to upgrade each gen than other franchises, also Nintendo handhelds just tend to be more appealing in general since Nintendo games are great and accessible pick up and play games. Also, handhelds tend to be far cheaper than consoles which makes them more appealing since you aren't spending as much just to play Nintendo games.

The N64 would've sold 90-100 million units if Nintendo wasn't stupid and didn't just hand over their entire 3rd party support to Sony for no good reason (N64 could have still had a cartridge slot + had a CD-drive too). 

In the US the reason why it was able to sell on par with the SNES was because in part GoldenEye 007 was a massive, massive deal, the N64 was the console go to for FPS genre well before the XBox and Playstation. Again, Nintendo lost that too (much like the stranglehold on JRPGs in Japan). 

For Switch 2, Nintendo has to ensure the system has a lights out first 8-12 months software wise, it's the best they can do. If your main hardware sales draw is Nintendo franchise then the least you can do is make sure you have ones that make people go "I *have* to buy that" (not just "I wouldn't mind having that") early in the product cycle like Switch had. 

Cheap console thing is just not going to be a big factor for Nintendo going forward, the Switch was still fairly pricey at $300 to launch, Switch 2 will probably push that even higher. 



zorg1000 on 27 June 2023
Soundwave said:
zorg1000 said:

I don’t disagree with anything you said, I’m just not sure how any of it relates to the point I was making when you quoted me.

I said if Switch 2 is a pretty straight forward successor that doesn’t have an unwanted gimmick jacking up the price than I don’t think cross-gen titles will hold it back.

All this talk about 3DS is irrelevant because 3DS does not fit that description, it was a lot more expensive than the DS line because of the 3D screen people didn’t care about and it had a poor software lineup.

The whole point was talking about whether or not cross-gen titles will hurt Switch 2, Nintendo was not releasing cross-gen titles on DS/3DS so I’m not sure how that was a counterpoint to begin with.

It was only more expensive than the DS pricing range for 5 months though, after its 5th month the price was rapidly cut to $169.99, so the pricing thing was never a problem for the 3DS after that. 

I think basically just upgrading the graphics hasn't always worked well for Nintendo. Now sure, maybe it can be different for Switch 2. Maybe Nintendo's audience is larger, more robust and more important older (with more disposable income now). 

It's still going to depend a lot on making sure the initial software is really good, the first 8-12 months need to be great, not just good, great. 

Yeah they cut the price pretty quickly but that can sometimes have a bad effect too, like hearing that something basically cut 1/3 of its price shortly after release could give the impression that it’s not a good product.

Plus I’m convinced that a lot of people who aren’t hardcore gamers that keep up with gaming news thought it was a DS revision. I remember telling a couple friends about 2DS when it was announced and their reaction was basically, “a 3DS without 3D, isn’t that just a regular DS?”

Now these guys weren’t hardcore Nintendo fans or anything, they were your typical PS/XB gamer who play the big shooters & open-world games but if a couple early 20s, average gamers didn’t know 3DS was a brand new console than imagine what casual gamers, parents & grandparents thought.


The thing is Nintendo hasn’t done a standard upgrade in over 20 years and many times in the past that they did, it was accompanied by stupid mistakes like sticking to cartridges when everyone else was moving to disks.

When has Nintendo made a straight forward successor that wasn’t plagued by bad choices? Basically NES to SNES and GB to GBA.

But I absolutely agree that Nintendo needs a killer software lineup just like Switch had, I just don’t think having a handful of cross-gen titles will hurt them.

Last edited by zorg1000 - on 27 June 2023

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

IcaroRibeiro on 27 June 2023
javi741 said:

However, it's good to point out that this never really applied to Nintendo's handheld consoles as the handheld Nintendo gamers typically do a good job at upgrading every generation, I think a big part of it is Pokemon which has a huge fanbase that's far more willing to upgrade each gen than other franchises, also Nintendo handhelds just tend to be more appealing in general since Nintendo games are great and accessible pick up and play games. Also, handhelds tend to be far cheaper than consoles which makes them more appealing since you aren't spending as much just to play Nintendo games.

Nintendo has a good history with Handhelds + they are the ONLY one doing handhelds now + they are the only relevant hardware maker in Japan 

Nintendo can now release Switch 2 with no games and for 600 USD and they will sell at least 40 million next gen regardless, simply because for Japanese people and handheld gamers is Nintendo or nothing



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zorg1000 on 27 June 2023

Here’s a hypothetical Switch 2 scenario.

Name: Super Switch
Release date: November 2024
Price: $349.99 (OG Switch discontinued, OLED model takes $299.99 price point)

Nintendo published release schedule

November 2024-3D Mario (exclusive), Metroid Prime 4 (cross-gen)

February 2025-2.5 Donkey Kong (cross-gen)

April 2025-Mario Kart 9 (exclusive)

May 2025-Tears of the Kingdom 4K (updated port)

July 2025-Fire Emblem Warriors Engage (cross-gen)

September 2025-Star Fox reboot (exclusive)

October 2025-Super Mario Wonder 4K (updated port)

November 2025-Pokémon Let’s Go 2 or Legends 2 (cross-gen)

December 2025-Xenoblade Chronicles X-2 (exclusive)



10 first party titles consisting of 4 exclusives, 4 cross-gen & 2 updated ports, would Switch 2 be hurt by cross-gen titles in this scenario?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zeldaring on 27 June 2023

Yea switch isn't slowing down at all and looking at zelda sales it's like throwing money down the toilet not doing cross-gen games



curl-6 on 27 June 2023
zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

It's not that Nintendo's audience is unwilling to upgrade, it's just that historically they've done so inconsistently.

PS and Xbox have been able to fuck up pretty badly and still sell 87m/50m units, they pretty much just have to show up and say "hey, here's the next box" and people will run out and buy it. 

Nintendo's audience tends to need more convincing.

While true that Nintendo sales are inconsistent, that’s due to major mistakes by Nintendo rather than fans needing convincing. From things like alienating 3rd parties by sticking with cartridges or chasing gimmicks nobody asked for, it’s been specific fuck ups that have hurt them.

As for PS/XB, I don’t agree at all. While there is a pretty consistent total sales for PS+XB consoles, the individual market share has varied widely. It went from 85/15 to 50/50 when Sony fucked up to 70/30 when Microsoft fucked up.

Besides that argument can be made for Nintendo as well, despite making a bunch of foolish decisions last generation, they were still able to sell ~90 million units of hardware between 3DS & Wii U.

As long as Nintendo doesn’t make any huge mistakes that alienate 3rd parties or focus on unwanted gimmicks that jack up the price or have frequent 1st party software droughts than I don’t think cross-gen titles will hurt them.

And I’m not saying all games need to be cross-gen, like let’s say Nintendo releases 8-10 1st party retail titles in it’s first 12 months with 3-4 of them being big made for the ground up exclusives and the other 5-6 being mid-level cross-gen titles and a couple updated Switch 1 ports.

That's the thing though, we can't assume Nintendo won't make any mistakes with Switch 2.

I'm not saying there can't be any crossgen games, just that a PS4-5 approach of almost everything being crossgen for the first two years wouldn't be the right fit for Nintendo's situation. Now that they only have one hardware line they have no backup, they can't afford to be lackadaisical.



znake on 27 June 2023

Switch is coming 165 million I don’t care why you guys think



IcaroRibeiro on 27 June 2023
curl-6 said:
zorg1000 said:

While true that Nintendo sales are inconsistent, that’s due to major mistakes by Nintendo rather than fans needing convincing. From things like alienating 3rd parties by sticking with cartridges or chasing gimmicks nobody asked for, it’s been specific fuck ups that have hurt them.

As for PS/XB, I don’t agree at all. While there is a pretty consistent total sales for PS+XB consoles, the individual market share has varied widely. It went from 85/15 to 50/50 when Sony fucked up to 70/30 when Microsoft fucked up.

Besides that argument can be made for Nintendo as well, despite making a bunch of foolish decisions last generation, they were still able to sell ~90 million units of hardware between 3DS & Wii U.

As long as Nintendo doesn’t make any huge mistakes that alienate 3rd parties or focus on unwanted gimmicks that jack up the price or have frequent 1st party software droughts than I don’t think cross-gen titles will hurt them.

And I’m not saying all games need to be cross-gen, like let’s say Nintendo releases 8-10 1st party retail titles in it’s first 12 months with 3-4 of them being big made for the ground up exclusives and the other 5-6 being mid-level cross-gen titles and a couple updated Switch 1 ports.

That's the thing though, we can't assume Nintendo won't make any mistakes with Switch 2.

I'm not saying there can't be any crossgen games, just that a PS4-5 approach of almost everything being crossgen for the first two years wouldn't be the right fit for Nintendo's situation. Now that they only have one hardware line they have no backup, they can't afford to be lackadaisical.

If they make mistakes, their games being cross gen or not are the last thing that matters. Wii U and Game Cube games were not cross gen and the consoles bombed. Wii and Switch games were not cross gen and both consoles smashed.

The presence or absence of cross gen titles do not make a console launch successful, nor make a console launch a flop 

However, the presence of a cross gen titles will guaranteed software revenues will be still high on Switch to at least offset a Switch 2 from bombing. If Switch 2 bombs (not gonna happen  but still) the last thing Nintendo wants is to not have software selling on original Switch, because that would mean 0 revenue coming forward