PS5 is finally at a point where you can buy it in stores without haveing to turn to scalpers to find one.
Marketing for Hogwarts Legacy had a small boost effect as well I'm sure.
It was up jan 2022 -> jan 2033, by over 200% (ei. they sold 3 times as much in europe, this year in jan. as last year).
(simular trend in other regions, up massively)

I'm pretty sure the PS5 hasn't had its peak year yet.

Wow, that's the definition of optimism

Depends on how much work the smaller team that has been working on it since 2018 has gotten done so far I'd say. If they have managed to get the game to at least 25% completion over the last 5 years, I would say there is a chance that once the bulk of the Starfield team moves over to TES 6, that they will be able to finish it in the 3.5 years between Starfield's rumored June release and Holiday 2026. There are a few factors working in favor of a faster release for TES 6:

1. The new Creation Engine 2 is already finished, part of the reason that Starfield took so long is because they pretty much rebuilt Creation engine from the ground up, but that work is complete now, there will only be incremental upgrades to Creation Engine 2 between Starfield and TES 6.

2. Elder Scrolls 6 is not a new IP like Starfield. New IP's take longer to develop as you have to build an all new world, plan all new gameplay systems, design all new factions, etc. Elder Scrolls 6 by comparison, began pre-production as soon as Skyrim released in2011, so tons of concept art and alot of the games story and such will have already been created in the 7 years between 2011 and 2018.

3. Elder Scrolls 6 is smaller in scale than Starfield is. Starfield has over 1000 planets. While automation was used to a degree, several planets are mostly handcrafted and many have at least some handcrafted settlements on their surface. TES 6 meanwhile will feature a much smaller map, that is probably no more than 3 times larger than Skyrim's 14.3 square mile map.

4. Starfield's development cycle was disrupted by Covid, like many other games which were in development when Covid struck. Between developers trying to get used to work from home and more sick leave being taken, Covid likely added at least a year to Starfield's overall dev time than it would have had under normal circumstances.

5. We saw in a Bethesda behind the scenes video in 2019 that Bethesda was already doing actual development on TES 6 at the time. They were photogrammetry scanning real-world desert rock formations for the rumored Hammerfell desert setting of TES 6, as well as photogrammetry scanning Skyrim Grandma Shirley Curry in order to turn her into a companion character for TES 6. That likely means that more than just concept art and story writing has been done on TES 6 since it's 2018 announce, they seem to have a smaller team on it that has likely already started modelling out the open world, designing gameplay systems, 3D modeling characters, etc.

Yep, sometimes I get a few predictions correct but when I'm wrong it's usually giving the console the benefit of the doubt.

Here is my overly optimistic guess of PS5 2022 sale through year.  I was surprised by how terrible it did.

It does seem though that I have a pattern of expecting the best.

Your PS5 predictions are generally pessimistic. I mean you predicted 16-17 million PS5's sold this year, and around a 100 million lifetime iirc. Neither figure is optimistic at all. For Series XS to sell over 80 million lifetime, it's going to need to nearly tie PS5 outside Japan from 2024 onwards per your own predictions. Think about that for a second.

Sure you overestimated production improvement last year, but you're very clearly underestimating PS5's demand.

Back to the topic:

That will depend on Starfield's success. If it's even 40% as successful as Skyrim, then Xbox may peak either this year or in 2024 which I think is GTA6's year. Otherwise it may have peaked already but It's difficult to say. I'm leaning towards Starfield being a big success so my prediction is no it hasn't peaked yet. Then again, PC might cannibalize Series XS's sales a lot more than initially thought.

Not even close.

Of course not, this is almost as laughable as asking if the ps5 has already peaked. They are coming off a very weak year in terms of exclusive releases, this year is already looking far better than last year.

Not really, the last 3-4 months show PS5 numbers exploding expectations, while in the same timeframe Xbox numbers already go down. So saying 2022 was the PS5's peak year would've been laughable, less with Xbox

No. Not only are they clearly having production issues (anecdotally, I'm regularly seeing PS5s in stores these days, but it's been a while since I've seen a Series X sitting on shelves), but the full benefits of their expanded first-party roster of studios has yet to be realized. If they can start getting a steady supply of Series X units in stores and once they start getting more marquee titles like Starfield out, we'll see more growth. The XBS was doing pretty good for the first half of 2022, and is outpacing the XBO in the U.S. during its second year prior to the holidays, but it clearly had a rough go at it over the past several months, with November being barely up YoY.

(Edited for clarification)

What ?