December 2021 we have Switch at 4.88 million. There is somewhat of a chance it can do it. It will likely be close either way. 

So PS5 was not undertracked, and the Switch was not overtracked, no matter how much people always insist they are.

Yeah pretty much. What I am seeing is that we had the order wrong rather than how much each console is off. The PS5 remains the same as before, NS adjusted up 3.8%, and XS adjusted down 13.6%. XS is further off than I would like, but people are acting off we had it WAY off. 

That's a rare instance though. It's much more frequent that VGC undertracks Playstation and overtracks Switch/Xbox, and yet part of the community forgets every time and takes the estimates at face value. It's not necessarily out of bias or expectations (that Xbox is more competitive this gen and therefore it's expected to eat at Playstation's marketshare), but there may be some things wrong with the extrapolation methods that need to be tweaked.

VGC's estimates for Xbox Series consoles even following the adjustments remain high when compared to other trackers like MediaCreate and AmpereAnalysis. All trackers are prone to miscaluclations since MS doesn't share meaningful data, but VGC tends to be optimistic about Xbox/Switch and pessimistic about PS, especially more recently. Again, bias isn't necessarily the reason. As a matter of fact, I'm 100% sure bias has nothing to do with it as the team responsible for tracking are neutral and awesome, but expectations probably do (Xbox eating marketshare, the unstoppable Switch, PS5 supply situation, etc).

These are still estimates aren't they? Let's wait for the adjustments following the quarterly reports.

I mean, the numbers will always be estimates; even after the reports, VGC still has to guesstimate how much sold in each week or region, how much was on shelves or transit vs sold through, etc.

All I'm saying is, it's not always a case of "PS5 undertracked Switch overtracked".

And what I'm saying is that without quarterly reports, VGC's weekly estimates are much weaker. NPD rankings can still be adjusted around in ways that favor Switch and Xbox.

Yeah it's certainly not "always" the case but there is a clear pattern. Personally, I just can't ignore Sony's insistence and confidence that they're producing a crap ton of PS5's for this quarter and the next.

I agree we should always strive to improve the methodology and prediction methods based on past patterns. My only claim was that it's not always a case of x overtracked and y undertracked, that it's more nuanced than that.

Recently we do tend to see certain patterns recur more often, yeah, and that should absolutely be looked into and the formula subsequently tweaked.

It’s like they don’t get it. No offense.

They still have Xbox selling more than PS5 black friday week. That weekend is the biggest of the entire month. If Xbox sold more it would have won the month.

The adjustments aren’t enough either.

What data did NPD give that proves this sites data is correct? I didn’t see any numbers in NPD report. It’s just dollar sales and information on 1st 2nd and 3rd place consoles.

This site already admitted they based U.K. sales on the estimates for November. Which honestly makes no sense. U.K. is the smallest market out of all of Europe. And PS5 was behind only by thousands of sales. Not no hundreds of thousands. I wouldn’t use that data point for anything.

Sony said they were increasing PS5 stock. God Of War release in November. That’s all the datapoint anyone needs to know that PS5 would be selling the most for November and on a weekly bases.

Says who exactly? That’s not official data. 

Just to stop you right there. The UK is the LARGEST market in Europe. May not make much difference to your point but better not to argue with such inaccuracies as 1 of your main points.