I'm genuinely curious how JC arrived at that figure. He reportedly filmed the 2nd and 3rd movie at the same time, plus a little of the 4th, with the highest estimates putting this combined budget at 500 Million. 2 Billion sounds like an unusually high break-even target for the 2nd and 3rd movie combined, let alone just one of them. Maybe Disney is taking a bigger slice of the box office revenue than normal, I don't know.
The $350-460m was the production budget, and I think that only includes the Avatar 2 portion of what was filmed, not the Avatar 3 portion. P&A (printing and advertising) budgets aren't included with production budgets, and Disney likely threw a massive marketing campaign behind it, hundreds of millions of dollars on marketing for tv and movie theater ads, posters, billboards, websites, etc. Then you have the cut of the box office that theaters/cinemas take, which is around 30% I think. Lastly, there is the possibility that some of the actors or Cameron himself are getting a royalty percentage of the box office, further adding to the break even point. I could definitely see it being around the lower end of what Cameron predicted, in 2 different interviews he said it needed to either be the 5th or 8th highest grossing movie to break even point, which puts break-even around $1.66b-$2.05b. That upper number seems unrealistically high for sure and was likely Cameron trying to get pity watches from people, but the lower number could be closer to accurate.Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 27 December 2022