Deadline says the budget is $460m so unless the marketing budget was a near $1bn, which is so ridiculously unlikely, then $2bn to break even doesn't make a single bit of sense, I don't even think Avatar 2 has been advertised that much more than your typical major Disney film, at least from what I've seen.
Even if it was a large marketing budget, nobody is spending a near $1bn on marketing when the average is around $150-$200m, Infinity War and End Game were in that range too. I'm very confident in saying that Avatar 2 has either already broken even or maybe even profiting already, as it has already crossed $1bn.
Cameron didn't actually say $2bn though, here is the exact quote.
Cameron apparently told Disney and 20th Century Studios executives that his sequel budget was so high it represented "the worst business case in movie history." According to the director's estimates, "you have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history. That's your threshold. That's your break even."
Notice how he doesn't actually say when he told Disney/Fox this? It doesn't make much sense that he told them this in 2022, the quote fits better as what he told the execs at the time of pitching the film, which was in 2012 - 2013 so that would have been between $1.3bn - $1.5bn for the "third or fourth highest grossing films"
That still sounds too high to me though, so I think he could also simply be overhyping how massive the film is to get people to go out and see it, or the dude doesn't actually know off the top of his head what the 3rd-4th highest grossing films are and just threw that random range out there because it sounded large enough, Lol.
Nobody is greenlighting a film that needs $2bn just to break even, not even Disney.
Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 28 December 2022
