No matter what way you look at it though, it does seem like Avatar 2 will probably hit break even. Even if the break even is on the high end estimate of $1.6b that Cameron gave at the red carpet premiere, Avatar 2 just had a very successful post-Christmas Monday of $100m worldwide, bringing the total so far to $960m, and the rest of this week and weekend should be fairly high with kids and teens off from school and bored, looking for things to do. It seems to me like it is tracking to hit around $1.6b lifetime. It certainly doesn't seem like it will do nearly as well as the original movie did at the box office, but it should break even at least and bring in a net profit for Disney after home video sales and a Disney+ subscription boost after it hits D+.
I'd say Avatar 3 isn't in risk at all, it was already filmed and would cost way too much to cancel at this point (they reportedly already spent $250m filming Avatar 3 and that is before the post-production work to CGI the movie). I do think that Disney will tell Cameron to f*ck off with his request that all 9 hours of footage that were recorded for 3 be given post-production CGI before he edits it down from 9 hours to 3-3.5 hours. Doing 9 hours of high quality CGI would be ridiculously expensive and cause Disney to get serious flack for crunching the employees at Weta Workshop and Industrial Light and Magic (who collaborated on the CGI for Avatar 2). They will want a lower overall budget for Avatar 3 to increase it's chances of success, not a higher budget, so they will definitely force Cameron to edit 3 before the CGI is done.
The planned Avatar 4 and 5 are definitely at risk though. If Disney can't manage to make 3 alot more profitable than 2 (via a reduced production and marketing budget), I think they will go ahead and axe Avatar 4 and 5. Cameron said that he planned for the ending of 3 to serve as a possible ending for the whole series in case Disney doesn't greenlight 4 and 5.
