There is no way Nintendo will launch a system in 2023 with MK8 and Splatoon 3 having support for 1-2 years unless it is fully compatible with it. And with that, i feel like it might just be considered part of the Switch family of system instead of a full on new model and will just replace it overtime like the Gameboy and Gameboy Color.

I just have the feeling that, with what Nintendo as been hinting at with longer lifecycle, they seem to be going towards a new generational model closer to Phones than past consoles. Like they might just keep updating the Switch over the years and keeping the same library and NSO service, adding some features and functionalities exclusive to the new models. It would only be hard to market which console can play which game eventually.

Before its official release (Q3 2020 I think) most of Brazilian Switches came from Japan as well. 

I wonder if God of War Ragnarok will boost PS5 sales in November..

It's also coming to PS4, so...

@Chrkeller Welcome to the potential party! As others have pointed out, it really depends on when Nintendo rolls out a full successor.

@trunkswd I agree. It shouldn't be earlier than 2024. Frankly, I feel like March 2024 is too early, given the lineup of games this year and what has so far been announced next year. And like you said, Switch sales are still pretty strong. They shouldn't cut the legs off too soon. I feel like they did that with the DS and suffered for it.

Obviously, I wouldn't expect them to suffer as badly if they did that again with the Switch because they only have one system now, but still. It's hard to imagine them having just one system for a single generation and for that system to only manage 3DS-level sales at this point. Like Sony, if Nintendo keeps just one system per generation, I feel like they are poised to basically always have a 100 million selling console.

I wonder if Holiday 2024 is going to be too soon. Still hoping for Late 2025. Maybe launch in September 2025 to coincide with the 40th anniversary of Super Mario Bros. Launch with a new 2D Mario and Mario Kart and then having Pokemon Gen 10 in November 2025 (also playable on the Switch 1 similar to how Gold & Silver were for GBC but could be played on GB). Animal Crossing in early 2026 (around the series' 25th anniversary), Smash Bros. during the holidays. 3D Mario and BW remakes by ILCA in Late 2027. Legends: Kyurem in 2028. Zelda would probably be 2029 and Gen 11 as well.

One thing's for sure: the next Nintendo system is not launching with a brand new open world Zelda.

I think late 2025 is too late. Cuz like what first party games would they have coming out that final year? I feel like sales in 2025 would really start dipping if they kept the Switch going through that Summer or into the Fall.

I'm sure 3D Mario will be a launch game on Switch 2. After this year there will already be 5 Pokemon games on Switch and even though they pump Pokemon games out like crazy these days I feel like it'd make more sense to have the next game come out during the first year of Switch 2 (actually I could see the next Pokemon be a cross gen game considering those games don't push the technical side of things and I'm sure they'd like to take advantage of a 150m+ user base. So if it's cross gen they aren't gonna wait a full 3 years for the next Pokemon I doubt. Stuff like Mario 2D and DK and Prime 4 will probably come out late 2023 or early 2024 on Switch. After that maybe Nintendo just has some smaller and some handheld franchises they bring to the Switch to close out that last like half year or so before the next system comes out.

Holiday 2024 or Spring 2025 seems just right. 3D Mario, MK9, and Pokemon in the first 6 months of Switch 2.

Anyway, all I know is we got at least two more years of Switch focus.

Switch YTD is now less than 25% down from 2020, which is pretty remarkable given how massive a year that was.

I dont know how someone can be here so long and not see the actual data being reported by the likes of NPD and the European trackers.  The PS5 version of games are far and away the dominant seller for Sony's first party games and for third party games for 2022, its not even a contest.  Of course GOW:R will move PS5s.

@Slownenberg Maybe a Fire Emblem remake or WW/TP HD. Could also see us getting the likes of Luigi's Mansion 1/2, Donkey Kong Country Returns and Yoshi's Woolly World. Maybe Xenoblade Chronicles X. Ultimately, a lot of remakes and ports, but by that point the Switch would be well over 150 million. Honestly, most of these games would probably feel new to Switch users. Obviously I wouldn't expect anything major, but game development takes time and things have been so messed up these past couple of years that I want them to give the Switch 2 as much time as possible so it has a smooth launch and a steady stream of new games.

I expect next year personally, given how much smoke there is around the SoC said to be powering it, but I feel like it will be a "soft" transition similar to PS5 and Series X where there won't be many exclusives and Switch 1 will continue to get software for the first 1-2 years after replacement.